10 year trends – 3.10 Goodwood – Totesport Mile

3.10 Goodwood – Totesport Mile – 1 mile all age handicap (3yo+)


Price: Horses whose starting price has been between 9/2 and 12/1 have produced 8 of the last 10 winners.
Market: Horses from the top 5 of the betting have 9 of the 10 races.
Draw: 8 of the last 10 winners have been drawn within 4 stalls of the inside rail (effectively low draws).
Recent form: 8 of the last 10 winners finished in the first five LTO.
Days since last run: 7 of the last 10 winners had their last race between 20 and 28 days previously.
Trainers: Mark Johnston has had 3 winners in the last 10 years; Roger Charlton has had 2 winners from just 3 winners (the other horse placed).


Market: Horses 6th or bigger in the betting have provided just 1 winner from 135 qualifiers for a loss of £109.00 (ROI -80.7%).
Beaten distance LTO: Horses that were beaten 10 or more lengths LTO have provided 0 winners from 34.
Days since last run: Horses returning to the track after a break of 7 days or less have won just once in 42 attempts showing a loss of £38.50 (ROI -91.7%).
Claiming jockeys: 19 claiming jockeys have been used in the race, but all have been beaten.


Favourites: 2 winning favourites for a loss of £1.00 (ROI -10%).
Course LTO: Horses that had raced at Ascot LTO have provided just 1 winner from 42 qualifiers for a loss of £38.50 (ROI -91.7%). This looks a strong negative trend, but it should be noted though a further 11 have been placed.
Age: 3 year olds have produced 2 wins from 22 (SR 9.1%); 4 year olds have been successful 4 times from 67 runners (SR 6%); 5 year olds have produced 3 wins from 51 runners (SR 5.9%); horses aged 6 or older have won just 1 winner from 54 (SR 1.9%).

Trends Summary: When looking at this race you are best to look for a horse drawn close to the inside rail that is in the top 5 of the betting. The draw bias is arguably the strongest trend and I would ignore horses drawn 10 stalls or more away from the inside. In terms of days off the track horses having a break of around 3-4 weeks have done especially well, while age wise 6yos and older have a poor record. In terms of trainers, Mark Johnston and Roger Charlton have combined to win 50% of the races in the last 10 years.

Dave Renham is a uk Horse Racing Researcher
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