10 year trends Ascot (Saturday)
2.45 Ascot – Coral Ascot Hurdle 2m 3½f (Grade 2)
POSITIVE TRENDS
| Favourites (inc joints): There have been 6 winning favourites from 12 and backing all selections would have produced a profit of £2.88 (ROI +24%). |
| Market: 9 of the last 10 winners have come from the top two of the betting. |
| Price: All of the last 10 winners were priced 7/2 or shorter. Backing all 25 qualifiers would have produced a profit of £6.46 (ROI +25.8%). |
| Market LTO: 7 of the last 10 winners were priced 11/2 or shorter LTO. |
| Position LTO: 7 of the last 10 winners won LTO (from only 17 runners). |
| Trainers: 2 wins a piece for Dessie Hughes, Nicky Henderson and Francois Doumen. |
| Course winners: 4 wins and 3 placed runs from 15 runs for previous course winners. |
NEGATIVE TRENDS
| Price: Horses priced 4/1 or bigger have produced 0 winners from 40 runners. |
| Breeding: Just 1 win from 15 for British bred runners. |
GENERAL STATS
| Age: 4 year olds have produced 2 winners from 5 qualifiers (SR 40%); 5 year olds have produced 1 winner from 11 qualifiers (SR 9.1%); 6 year olds have produced 2 winners from 16 qualifiers (SR 12.5%); 7 year olds have produced 2 wins from 14 (SR 14.3%); 8 year olds plus have produced 3 wins from 19 (SR 15.8%). |
Trends analysis: this race has an impressive roll of honour with winners including Dawn Run, Gaye Brief, Morley Street, Baracouda and Hardy Eustace. Favourites have a good record and should be the first port of call, with second favourites also respected. A previous course win is a plus, while age wise, there is a wide age-range in terms of winners and hence there seems no edge to found there. LTO winners have done well so they require close scrutiny too.
3.20 Ascot – Carey Group Handicap Chase 2m 1f (Grade 2)
POSITIVE TRENDS
| Favourites: There have been 5 winning favourites from 10 producing a profit of £4.92 (ROI +49.2%). |
| Market: 9 of the last 10 winners have come from the top four of the betting. |
| Price: All of the last 10 winners were priced 8/1 or shorter. |
| Days since last run: 7 of the last 10 winners had run within the last 3 weeks. |
| Weight rank: 8 of the last 10 winners have come from the top 4 of the weights. |
| Market LTO: 5 of the last 10 winners were favourites LTO. |
| Price LTO: 9 of the last 10 winners were priced 15/2 or shorter LTO. |
| Position LTO: 6 of the last 10 winners came first or second LTO. |
| Trainers: 2 wins for Paul Nicholls (from 6 runners) and 2 wins for Nicky Henderson (from 5 runners). |
NEGATIVE TRENDS
| Price: Horses priced 17/2 or bigger have produced 0 winners from 28 runners. |
| Headgear: 0 wins from 15 for horses wearing any type of headgear. |
GENERAL STATS
| Age: 5 year olds have produced 1 winner from 4 qualifiers (SR 25%); 6 year olds have produced 4 winners from 13 qualifiers (SR 30.8%); 7 year olds have produced 2 winners from 16 qualifiers (SR 12.5%); 8 year olds have produced 3 wins from 16 (SR 18.8%); 9 year olds plus have produced 0 wins from 23 (SR 0%). |
Trends analysis: this race is dominated by positive stats. Favourites have a decent record especially considering it is a handicap. Indeed in general the market has got it right with all of the winners being priced 8/1 or shorter. In terms of weight, the top 4 weights have had a clear edge, and if you restrict these higher weighted runners to only those priced 8/1 or shorter you would have pinpointed 8 winners from a shortlist of just 32. In terms of age it looks best to avoid horses aged 9 or older.
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Dave Renham is a uk Horse Racing Researcher
For more info Click Here ==> Horse Racing Statistics
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