10 year trends for Sat Sept 3rd

2.30 Haydock – Old Borough Cup – 1m 6f (class 2 – heritage handicap)

POSITIVE TRENDS

Favourites (inc. joints): 5 wins from 12 for a profit of £13.50 (ROI +112.5%).

Position LTO: All 10 winners finished in the first four LTO.

Recent form: Horses that have won at least one of their last 6 races have provided 9 of the 10 winners.

Days since last run: 7 of the 10 winners had their last run between 14 and 21 days prior to this race.

LTO Market rank: Horses that were favourite or second favourite LTO have provided 6 of the 10 winners.

Trainers: Mark Johnston provided the winner in 2003, 2006 and 2009 and he has had 4 other placed runners.

NEGATIVE TRENDS

Market: Horses 7th or bigger in the betting have provided 1 winner from 92 qualifiers for a loss of £66.00 (ROI -71.7%).

Price: Horses priced 12/1 or bigger have provided just 1 winner from 116 qualifiers for a loss of £90.00 (ROI -77.6%).

Beaten distance LTO: Horses that were beaten by more than 5 lengths LTO have provided just 1 winner from 78 for a loss of £74.50 (ROI – 95.5%).

Position LTO: Horses that finished 5th or worse LTO have provided 0 winners from 80 qualifiers.

Distance LTO: Horses that raced over 2 miles or more LTO have provided 0 winners from 39.

Headgear: Horses wearing any type of headgear have provided 0 winners from 26.

GENERAL STATS

Weight: Horses from the top 7 of the weights have won 7 races from 75 runners (SR 9.3%); horses 8th or lower in the weights have won 3 races from 90 runners (SR 3.3%).

Age: 3 year olds have provided 5 winners from 32 qualifiers (SR 15.6%); 4 year olds have provided 3 winners from 59 qualifiers (SR 5.1%); 5 year olds have provided 2 winners from 39 (SR 5.1%); 6 year olds plus have provided 0 winners from 35 qualifiers (SR 0%).

Trends analysis: Favourites have enjoyed a very good record and generally it has been best to focus on the shorter priced runners (less than 12/1). 3 year olds have an excellent record as do horses that last raced between 2 or 3 weeks previously. Also horses that finished in the first four LTO have provided all of the 10 winners. In terms of age, horses aged 6 and older look worth avoiding, while the weight stats favour higher weights over lower ones.  Finally, Mark Johnston with 3 wins and 4 placed efforts is a trainer to note.

3.00 Haydock Be Friendly handicap – 5f (class 2 handicap)

POSITIVE TRENDS

Price: 6 of the last 10 winners were priced 14/1 or bigger.

Days since last run: All 10 winners had run within the last 3 weeks, with 6 winners having raced within last 10 days.

Course LTO: Horses that raced at York LTO have provided 5 winners from 40 for a profit of £58.00 (ROI +145%).

Breeding: 9 of the last 10 winners were British bred.

Position LTO: 7 of the last 10 winners finished 6th or worse LTO.

Price LTO: Horses priced 25/1 or bigger LTO have provided 5 winners for a profit of £79.00 (ROI +219.4%).

NEGATIVE TRENDS

Favourites (inc. joints): Favourites (inc. joints) have provided just 1 winner from 13 runners for a loss of £9.00 (ROI -69.2%).

Market: The top three in the betting (inc. joints) have provided just 2 winners from 33 for a loss of £21.00 (ROI -63.6%).

Class LTO: Horses that raced in a class 3 or lower event LTO have provided just 1 winner from 72 for a loss of £55.00 (ROI -76.4%).

GENERAL STATS

Age: 3 year olds have provided 1 winner from 19 qualifiers (SR 5.3%); 4 year olds have provided 2 winners from 38 qualifiers (SR 5.3%); 5 year olds have provided 2 winners from 41 (SR 4.9%); 6 year olds have provided 2 winners from 26 qualifiers (SR 7.7%), 7 year olds plus have provided 3 winners from 37 (SR 8.1%).

Sex: Fillies/mares have won 3 races from 22 qualifiers (SR 13.6%); colts/geldings have won 7 races from 139 (SR 5%).

Trends analysis: This has been a race where the market has not been a good guide with 60% of the winners priced 14/1 or bigger. Last time out form seems fairly irrelevant also with 70% of the winners finishing 6th or worse on their most recent start. British bred runners have done well as have horses that raced at York LTO. In terms of age, there seems to be little in it.

3.35 Haydock – Betfred Sprint – 6f (Group 1)

POSITIVE TRENDS

LTO run: Horses that won LTO or were beaten by no more than 3 lengths LTO have provided 8 of the last 10 winners.

Position LTO: Horses that finished 1st or 2nd LTO have won 7 of the last 10 races.

Market: 6 of the last 10 winners came from runners that were third to sixth in the betting (inc. joints). Backing all 46 qualifiers would have produced a profit of £22.50 (ROI +48.9%).

Price: 9 of the last 10 winners have been priced 14/1 or lower. Indeed 6 of the winners were priced between 9/1 and 14/1.

Market position LTO: Horses that were in the top 3 of the betting LTO have provided 7 of the last 10 winners.

Recent form: Horses that have won at least one of their last six races have provided all of the 10 winners.

Running style: 7 of the last 10 winners have won from being held up off the pace.

NEGATIVE TRENDS

Price: Horses priced 16/1 or bigger have provided just 1 winner from 76 qualifiers for a loss of £50.00 (ROI -65.8%).

Position LTO: Horses that finished 3rd or worse LTO have provided 3 winners, but from 90 qualifiers for a loss of £41.00 (ROI -45.6%).

Price LTO: Horses priced 14/1 or bigger LTO have provided 0 winners from 41.

GENERAL STATS

Favourites: 2 wins from 10 for a loss of £1.75 (ROI -17.5%).

Sex: Fillies/mares have won 2 races from 19 qualifiers (SR 10.5%); colts/geldings have won 8 races from 120 (SR 6.7%).

Age: 3 year olds have provided 3 winners from 34 qualifiers (SR 8.8%); 4 year olds have provided 2 winners from 42 qualifiers (SR 4.8%); 5 year olds have provided 3 winners from 29 (SR 10.3%); 6 year olds plus have provided 2 winners from 34 qualifiers (SR 5.9%).

Trends analysis: This has been a fairly good race for trends’ followers over the past 15 years. Good recent form is important – at least one win in the last six runs has been a must. In addition to this it has been a positive if the horse had finished 1st or 2nd LTO. The race is essentially market driven, with outsiders priced 16/1 or more really struggling. The most successful price bracket has been between 9/1 and 14/1. In terms of age there seems little in it. For in running punters it is a race that has favoured hold up horses.

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Dave Renham is a uk Horse Racing Researcher
For more info Click Here ==> Horse Racing Statistics
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