10 year trends for Saturday
3.05 Newbury – Geoffrey Freer Stakes
POSITIVE TRENDS
| Position LTO: LTO winners have provided 6 of the last 10 winners. |
| Position LTO: All of the last 10 winners finished in the first four LTO. |
| Price: Horses priced 3/1 or shorter have provided 8 of the 10 winners. |
| Market: 8 of the last 10 winners have been from the top 2 of the betting. |
| Favourites: There have been 6 winning favourites from 10 for a small profit of £2.94 (ROI +29.4%). |
| Course LTO: 7 of the last 10 winners raced at Newmarket (4 wins) or Goodwood (3 wins) LTO. |
| Race type LTO: 7 of the last 10 winners raced in Group 2 or Group 3 company LTO. |
| Breeding: Only 10 American bred runners have run in the past 10 years but 4 have won. |
| Trainers: 3 wins for Marcus Tregoning and 2 winners for Jeremy Noseda. |
NEGATIVE TRENDS
| Beaten distance LTO: Horses that were beaten by 10 or more lengths LTO have provided 0 winners from 18 qualifiers. |
| Days since last run: Horses off the track for 6 weeks or more have provided just 2winners from 26 for a loss of £21.45 (ROI -82.5%). |
| Price: Horses priced 14/1 or bigger have provided 0 winners from 22. |
GENERAL STATS
| Age: 3 year olds have provided 2 winners from 7 qualifiers (SR 28.6%); 4
year olds have provided 4 winners from 27 qualifiers (SR 14.8%); 5 year olds have provided 2 winners from 11 qualifiers (SR 18.2%); 6yos plus have provided 2 winners from 17 (SR 11.8%). |
Trends analysis: Horses that finished in the first four LTO should be the first port of call with 6 winning. It then is worth looking closely at horses priced 3/1 or shorter as they have dominated the race in recent years. In terms of negatives, horses that were well beaten LTO (10 or more lengths) should be ignored, while those off the track for 6 weeks or more should also be avoided. In terms of age there are no clear trends.
3.30 Ripon Great St Wilfrid
POSITIVE TRENDS
| Pace: 8 of the last 10 winners raced up with or close to the pace. Only 2 winners from horses that were held up in midfield, or at the back. |
| Draw: All of the last 10 winners have been drawn within 11 stalls of the far rail (now low draws). Considering the average field size is 20 that is a strong bias. |
| Price: 6 of the last 10 winners were priced 10/1 or shorter. |
| Days since last run: 9 of the last 10 winners had run within the last 15 days. |
| Course LTO: Horses that raced at Newmarket LTO have a decent record with 4 wins from 17 for a profit of £29.00 (ROI +170.6%). |
| Price LTO: Horses that were 20/1 or bigger LTO have produced 5 of the 10 winners and would have produced a profit of £19.00 (ROI +28.8%). |
NEGATIVE TRENDS
| Price: Horses priced 22/1 or bigger have recorded 0 winners from 79 qualifiers. |
| Beaten distance LTO: Horses that were beaten by 6 or more lengths LTO have provided 0 winners from 71 qualifiers. |
| Headgear: Horses wearing any type of headgear (blinkers, visor, cheekpieces, etc) have provided 0 winners from 44. |
| Course LTO: Horses that ran at Ripon LTO have provided 0 winners from 22 qualifiers. |
GENERAL STATS
| Favourites (inc. joints): There have been 2 winning favourites from 10 and
backing all selections would have produced a loss of £1.00 (ROI -10%). |
| Age: 3 year olds have provided 0 winners from 8 qualifiers (SR 0%); 4 year olds
have provided 4 winners from 55 qualifiers (SR 7.3%); 5 year olds have provided 2 winners from 53 qualifiers (SR 3.8%); 6yos have provided 2 winners from 36 (SR 5.6%); 7yos plus have provided 2 winners from 53 (SR 3.8%). |
Trends analysis: the key to this race in recent years has often been the draw with horses drawn within 11 stalls of the far rail (low) providing all the winners. Also a run within the last 15 days has proved crucial also.. Another key positive has been a prominent racing style with 8 of the last 10 winners having raced up with or close to the pace. It has proved difficult to come late on the scene from a midfield pitch, or a position at or near the back. Genuine outsiders (22/1 or bigger) have really struggled while horses beaten 6 or more lengths LTO have a dreadful record – they have provided 35% of all the runners but 0% of all winners. In terms of age 4yos seem to hold a slight edge but essentially there seems little age bias.
3.40 Newbury – Hungerford Stakes
POSITIVE TRENDS
| Market: 2nd and 3rd favourites have provided 6 of the last 10 winners. Backing all runners would have produced a profit of £13.00 (ROI +59.1%). |
| Price: 8 of the last 10 winners were priced 13/2 or shorter. |
| LTO Course: Horses that raced at Goodwood LTO have provided 6 of the winners. Backing all qualifiers would have produced a small profit of £22.45 (ROI +59.1%). |
| Days since last run: 7 of the last 10 winners had their last run between 15 and 21 days ago. |
| Trainers: Richard Hannon has won the race twice from 7 runners with a further three placed. |
| Beaten distance LTO: Horses beaten between 4 and 6 lengths LTO have provided 5 winners from just 17 qualifiers for a profit of £38.25 (ROI +225%). |
| Market position LTO: Horses that were from the top three of the betting LTO have provided 7 winners from 40 runners for a profit of £22.45 (ROI +56.1%). |
| Running style: 4 horses have managed to make all the running from the front. |
NEGATIVE TRENDS
| Position LTO: Horses that won LTO have a poor record with just 1 win from 21 qualifiers for a loss of £18.80 (ROI -89.5%). |
| Market: Horses fourth in higher in the betting have provided 2 winners from 59 runners. |
| Price: Horses priced 7/1 or bigger have provided 2 winners from 58 qualifiers. |
GENERAL STATS
| Favourites (inc. joints): There have been 2 winning favourites (inc. joints) from 11 but backing all of them would have lost you £5.55 (ROI -50.5%). |
| Age: 3 year olds have provided 2 winners from 28 qualifiers (SR 7.1%); 4
year olds have provided 5 winners from 29 qualifiers (SR 17.2%); 5 year olds have provided 1 winner from 18 qualifiers (SR 5.6%); 6yos plus have provided 2 winners from 17 (SR 11.8%). |
Trends analysis: Although this race has been market driven with the top three in the betting providing 8 winners, the value has been 2nd and 3rd favourites. Take note of horses that raced at Goodwood LTO as they have a very good record, while any runner from the stable of Richard Hannon deserves close scrutiny. For in running punters it should be noted that front runners have done exceptionally well winning around 4 times more often than they statistically should.
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Dave Renham is a uk Horse Racing Researcher
For more info Click Here ==> Horse Racing Statistics
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