10 Year Trends For Three Big Races On Saturday
Here are 10 year trends for three big races on Saturday.
The trends and statistics are based on the last 10 renewals. All profits and losses are quoted using £1 level stakes; ROI stands for return on investment, SR for strike rate.
1.50 Ascot – Reynoldstown Chase – 3m ½f
POSITIVE TRENDS
| Favourites: There have been 5 winning favourites from 10. |
| Market: There were 3 winning second favourites, so 8 of the last 10 winners came from the top 2 in the market. |
| Price: Horses priced 9/2 or shorter have produced 9 of the last 10 winners. |
| LTO winners: 9 of the last 10 winners won last time out. Backing all 22 qualifiers would have produced a profit of £7.05 (ROI +32%). |
| LTO market position: 8 of the last 10 winners were either favourite or second favourite LTO. |
| Career starts: Horses with 11 career starts or less have provided 9 of the last 10 winners. Horses who have raced 3 times or less over fences (previous to this race) have won 8 of the last 10. |
NEGATIVE TRENDS
| Price: Horses priced 5/1 or bigger have produced just 1 winner from 29 qualifiers for a loss of £19.50 (ROI -67.2%). |
| Position LTO: Horses that finished 2nd or worse last time out have produced just 1 winner from 30 for a loss of £26.00 (ROI -86.7%). |
GENERAL STATS
| Age: 5 year olds have produced 1 winner from 2 qualifiers (SR 50.0%); 6 year olds
have produced 4 winners from 13 qualifiers (SR 30.8%); 7 year olds have produced
5 winners from 19 qualifiers (SR 26.3%); 8 year olds plus have produced 0 winners
from 18 qualifiers (SR 0%).
|
Trends analysis: the Reynoldstown offers trends followers some strong positive pointers. 9 of the last 10 winners have been priced 9/2 or shorter so this is a definite starting point, with favourites given the closest scrutiny as they have won half of the races. LTO winners have an excellent record and look for horses that have had no more than 3 runs over fences as they have won 80% of the races from 55% of the total runners. In terms of age it looks best to focus on those horses aged 7 or younger.
POSITIVE TRENDS
| Favourites: There have been 5 winning favourites from 10 qualifiers showing a
profit of £1.48 (ROI +14.8%).
|
| Position LTO: 8 of the last 10 winners finished in the first four LTO. |
| Favourites LTO: There have only been 6 horses that started favourite LTO but 4 of them have gone on to win this race. |
| Class LTO: 7 of the last 10 winners raced in a Grade 1 or Grade 2 contest LTO. |
| Course last time out: 8 of the last 10 winners raced LTO at either Cheltenham, Ascot or Haydock. |
| Breeding: French breds have won 6 of the races from just 20 runners although profits have been modest at £2.48 (ROI +12.2%). |
| Trainers: Francois Doumen has won the race 3 times since 2002. |
NEGATIVE TRENDS
| Breeding: Just 2 wins from 23 for British bred runners showing losses of £12.00 (ROI -52.2%). |
GENERAL STATS
| Age: 5 year olds have produced 0 winners from 6 qualifiers (SR 0%); 6 year olds have produced 2 winners from 12 qualifiers (SR 16.7%); 7 year olds have produced 4 winners from 13 qualifiers (SR 30.8%); 8 year olds have won 1 from 12 qualifiers (SR 8.3%); 9 year olds plus have won 3 from 21 qualifiers (SR 14.3%). |
Trends analysis: this is a race where the positive trends tend to dominate. The market has been a fairly good guide to this race over recent years with favourites winning 5 of the last 9 races. A decent run LTO has been a plus, as has racing in Grade 1 or 2 company LTO. French breds have a good record as does trainer Francois Doumen. In terms of age there are no clear patterns.
POSITIVE TRENDS
| Favourites: There have been 5 winning favourites from 10 for a profit of £1.54 (ROI +15.4%). |
| Price: 9 of the last 10 winners were priced 15/2 or shorter. |
| Last run: 6 of the last 10 winners had been off the track for at least 7 weeks. |
| Course last time out: 8 of the last 10 winners raced LTO at either Cheltenham, Ascot or Kempton. |
| Trainers: the Pipe stable won the race four times between 2002 and 2006. No successes however, since David Pipe has taken over from his father. |
| LTO performance: 8 horses came into the race having failed to complete the course LTO, but 3 have gone onto win. |
| Distance LTO: Horses that raced over 3 miles or more LTO have won 5 of the renewals from just 21 runners for a profit of £5.16 (ROI +24.6%). |
NEGATIVE TRENDS
| Price: Horses priced 8/1 or bigger have provided just 1 winner from 23. |
| LTO Price: Horses priced 10/1 or bigger on their most recent run have provided 0 winners from 24. |
GENERAL STATS
| Age: 6 and 7 year olds have produced 0 winners from 11 qualifiers (SR 0%); 8 year
olds have produced 6 winners from 17 qualifiers (SR 35.3%); 9 year olds have produced 1 winner from 11 qualifiers (SR 9.1%); 10 year olds have produced
1 winner from 14 qualifiers (SR 7.1%); 11 year olds plus have produced 2 winners
from 10 qualifiers (SR 20%).
|
Trends analysis: this has been a market driven race in recent years thanks to 5 winning favourites and 9 winners priced 15/2 or shorter. A recent run is not necessarily a plus as 6 of the last 10 winners had been off the track for at least 7 weeks. A LTO run at either Cheltenham, Ascot or Kempton has been a positive, while in terms of age 8 year olds have performed way above expectations.