10 year trends Sandown Sat 7th Jan 2012
1.35 Sandown – 32Red Poker Juvenile Hurdle – class 4 (2m ½f)
POSITIVE TRENDS
| Favourites: There has been 5 winning favourites from 10 and backing all selections would have produced a profit of 86 pence (ROI +8.6%). |
| Price: 8 of the last 10 winners were priced 8/1 or shorter. (N.B. the other two winners were at 50/1 and 66/1). |
| Days since last run: Horses that had last raced between 8 and 14 days previously have provided 4 of the last 10 winners from just 11 runners. |
| Position LTO: 7 of the last 10 winners finished in the first three LTO. |
| Market LTO: 7 of the last 10 winners were favourite or second favourite LTO. |
| Running style: 7 of the last 10 winners raced close to or up with the pace (3 made all). |
NEGATIVE TRENDS
| Sex of horse: 0 wins from 13 for female runners. |
| Price LTO: Horses priced 25/1 or bigger LTO have provided 0 winners from 26. |
| Distance beaten LTO: Horses beaten 20 lengths or more LTO have provided just 1 winner from 39 qualifiers. |
GENERAL STATS
| Trainers: No trainer has saddled the winner more than once. |
Trends analysis: Favourites have a good record and despite two big priced winners the market tends to get it right. Past market data has proved useful also with 7 winners having been favourite or second favourite LTO. Good recent form is a plus with 70% of the winners having finished in the first three LTO. In terms of negatives, horses well beaten LTO have a poor record, as do female runners.
2.05 Sandown – 32Red Handicap Chase – Class 2 (2m)
POSITIVE TRENDS
| Market: 6 of the last 10 winners were second or third favourites. |
| Price: 8 of the last 10 winners were priced 11/2 or shorter. |
| Weight rank: 7 of the last 10 winners were 3rd to 5yh in the weights. |
| Position LTO: 4 of the last 10 winners have finished 6th or worse LTO. |
| LTO favourites: Horses that were favourite LTO have provided 5 winners from 15 for a profit of £4.25 (ROI +28.3%). |
| Distance beaten LTO: Horses beaten 20 lengths or more LTO have provided 5 winners from 22 runners for a profit of £17.25 (ROI +78.4%). |
NEGATIVE TRENDS
| Market: Favourites have provided 2 winners from 10 for a loss of £3.50 (ROI -35%). |
| Market: Horses 4th in the betting or bigger have provided just 2 winners from 42. |
| Headgear: 0 wins from 11 for horses wearing headgear. |
| Breeding: French bred runners have provided just 1 winner from 19 qualifiers for a loss of £15.75 (ROI -82.9%). |
GENERAL STATS
| Age: 5 & 6 year olds have produced 1 winner from 2 qualifiers (SR 50%); 7 year olds have produced 0 winners from 11 qualifiers (0%); 8 year olds have produced 5 winners from 22 qualifiers (SR 22.7%); 9 year olds have produced 3 winners from 22 (SR 13.6%); 10 year olds have produced 1 winner from 17 (SR 5.9%). |
Trends analysis: this race has favoured second and third favourites, while the actual market leaders have provided poor value. LTO form has not been that important with 5 of the winners having been beaten by 20 lengths or more on their most recent outing. 7 of the last 10 winners were ranked 3rd to 5th in the weights, while in terms of age, 8 year olds have done best, with horses 10 or older having struggled.
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Dave Renham is a uk Horse Racing Researcher
For more info Click Here ==> Horse Racing Statistics
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