10 year trends Saturday

2.35 Newmarket – Cheveley Park Stakes – 6f (Group 1) 2yo fillies


Favourites (inc. joints): 5 wins from 11 for a profit of £7.03 (ROI +63.9%).
Market: The top 3 in the betting have provided 9 of the last 10 winners.
Price: 8 of the last 10 winners were priced 11/2 or shorter.
LTO winners: Horses that won last time out have produced 8 of the 10 winners with the other 2 winners having finished 2nd.
Price LTO: 9 of the last 10 winners were priced 7/1 or shorter LTO.
Running style: 9 of the last 10 winners have been ridden close to or up with the pace.
Trainers: Brian Meehan has saddled 2 winners and 2 placed horses from 6.


Price: Horses priced 14/1 or bigger have provided just 1 winner from 49.
Position LTO: Horses finishing third or worse last time out have produced 0 winners from 36.
Trainers: 0 wins from 19 for Irish trained horses.
LTO favourites: There have been 19 runners that have come into this race having been beaten as favourites last time out and all have lost.


Distance LTO: Horses that raced over 6f LTO have provided 9 of the last 10 winners, but nearly 80% of the total runners had run over 6f LTO.

Trends analysis: An interesting set of statistics in a race that has been dominated by the top 3 in the betting with favourites having a very good recent record. LTO winners have dominated the race somewhat unsurprisingly perhaps, and it seems you can dismiss any runner that failed to finish in the first two on their latest start. Beaten favourites and Irish runners also look best avoided.

3.10 Newmarket – Sun Chariot Stakes  1 mile (Group 1) – 3yo+ (fillies / mares only)


Price: 6 of the last 10 winners were priced between 7/1 and 16/1. Backing all 36 qualifiers would have produced a profit of £38.00 (ROI +105.6%).
Position LTO: All of the last 10 winners finished in the first four on their most recent start.
Race type LTO: Horses raced in raced in Group 3 or Listed company LTO have provided 6 winners from 42 for a profit of £26.63 (ROI +63.4%).
Time off track: 5 of the last 10 winners had been off the track for at least 9 weeks.
Running style: 4 wins for the horses that has taken the early lead.


Favourites: There have been 2 winning favourites from 10 showing a loss of £4.13 (ROI -41.3%).
LTO beaten distance: Horses beaten 3 or more lengths on their most recent start have produced just 1 winner from 36 qualifiers. Backing all qualifiers would have produced a loss of £30.5 (ROI –84.7%).


Age: 3yos have won 7 races from 55 runners (SR 12.7%); 4yos have won

2 races from 25 runners (SR 8.0%); 5yos and older have won 1 race from 14 (SR 7.1%).

Breeding: 3 wins from 12 for US bred runners (albeit 2 wins for the same horse).

Trends analysis: There have been 0 winners priced 20/1 or bigger, but the value has lain with slightly bigger priced – those priced 7/1 to 16/1. Favourites have a very moderate record despite winning the race last year. A decent run LTO looks important with all 10 winners having finished in the first four LTO. A run at Group 3 or Listed level seems a plus as I would suspect some of the runners are under-estimated. In terms of age, 3yos provide a good majority of the runners, but they do seem to hold a slight edge over their older compatriots.

Dave Renham is a uk Horse Racing Researcher
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