10 year trends Saturday
For members of www.racingtrends.co.uk alongside the daily e mails of racing information they also get 10 year trnds for big meetings and big races. Saturday is a big day at Ascot and here are the 3 races my members have been sent.
1.35 Ascot – Longines Handicap – 7f (class 3 handicap) 3yo+
POSITIVE TRENDS
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Price: Horses priced between 9/1 and 20/1 have provided 8 of the last 10 winners.
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Position LTO: Horses that finished 3rd to 6th LTO have provided 9 of the last 10 winners.
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Days since last run: 7 of the last 10 winners had raced within the last 17 days.
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Price LTO: 6 of the last 10 winners were priced 9/1 or bigger LTO.
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Jockeys: Miss S Brotherton has won the race twice and been placed on one other occasion.
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NEGATIVE TRENDS
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Favourites (inc. joints): 0 wins from 13.
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Market: Just 1 win from 32 for horses from the top three of the betting.
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Weight rank: Horses from the top 8 of the weights have provided just 3 winners from 82 for a loss of £50.00 (ROI -61%).
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Days since last run: Horses off the track for over 5 weeks have provided 0 winners from 32 runners.
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Position LTO: Horses that won or finished 2nd LTO have provided 0 winners from 49.
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LTO race: 22 horses raced in a non handicap LTO and all have lost.
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GENERAL STATS
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Age: 3yos have provided 0 winners from 17 (SR 0%); 4yos have provided 6 winners from 59 (SR 10.2%); 5yos have provided 2 winners from 47 (SR 4.3%); 6yos+ have provided 2 winners from 84 (SR 2.4%).
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Trends analysis: In recent years it has been worthwhile to look for horses priced 9/1 to 20/1 as they have provided 8 of the last 10 winners. Indeed you could have made a profit by backing all runners in this price bracket. The top three in the betting have a dreadful record and there has been value to look beyond these runners. Last time out winners / runners up also have performed poorly with no success from 49 runners in the past 10 renewals. 4 year olds have the best record age wise, while horses aged 6 or older look worth avoiding. All in all this is a typically open ladies’ handicap.
3.20 Ascot – Summer Mile Stakes (Group 2) 4yo+
POSITIVE TRENDS
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Market: 2nd favourites have won 5 of the last 10 races for a profit of £10.38 (ROI +94.3%).
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Market: 9 of the last 10 winners came from second to fifth in the betting.
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Position LTO: 6 of the last 10 winners finished 1st or 2nd LTO. Backing all 32 runner would have produced a profit of £15.63 (ROI +48.8%).
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Price: All of the last 10 winners have been priced 11/1 or shorter.
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Breeding: American bred runners are rare but they have secured 3 wins from just 13 runners for a profit of £11.00 (ROI +84.6%).
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Class LTO: 6 of the last 10 winners ran in a Group 1 race LTO.
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Price LTO: 6 of the last 10 winners were priced 9/1 or bigger LTO.
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Course LTO: 8 of the last 10 winners ran at a Grade 1 track LTO; one other winner raced at Sha Tin LTO (the main track in Hong Kong).
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Days since last run: 5 of the last 10 winners had been off the track for at least 8 weeks.
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NEGATIVE TRENDS
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Favourites: 1 win from 10 for a loss of £7.13 (ROI -71.3%).
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Price: Horses priced 12/1 or bigger have provided 0 winners from 34.
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GENERAL STATS
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Trainers: No trainer has won the race more than once in the past 10 years.
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Age: 4yos have provided 5 winners from 41 (SR 12.2%); 5yos have provided 2 winners from 22 (SR 9.1%); 6yos have provided 2 winners from 12 (SR 16.7%); 7yos+ have provided 1 winner from 11 (SR 9.1%).
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Trends analysis: This race has not been a good one for favourites, although with second favourites having a good record it is probably just a statistical blip. There are several positive trends to note such as horses that ran in a Group 1 race LTO – they have provided 60% of the winners from only 28% of the total runners. Likewise horses off the track for 8 weeks or more have an excellent record – they have provided 50% of the winners from only 16% of the total runners. In terms of age 4yos have won the most races, but they have provided the most runners – essentially there seems to be no age bias.
4.35 Ascot – King George & Queen Elizabeth Stakes – 1m4f (Group 1) 3yo+
POSITIVE TRENDS
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Favourites: 6 wins from 10 for a profit of £3.97 (ROI +39.7%).
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Market: The top four in the betting have provided all of the last 10 winners.
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Price: All of the winners have been priced 13/2 or shorter.
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Price: Horses priced 5/2 or shorter have provided 6 winners from just 9 runners.
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Breeding: 9 of the last 10 winners were Irish bred.
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Position LTO: 8 of the last 10 winners finished in the first two LTO (6 won).
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Course LTO: 4 of the last 5 winners raced at Royal Ascot LTO.
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Trainers: Sir Michael Stoute has had 3 wins, Aidan O’Brien and John Oxx 2 a piece.
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NEGATIVE TRENDS
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Price: Horses priced 7/1 or bigger have produced 0 winners from 53.
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Market: Horses 5th or higher in the betting market have provided 0 winners from 45.
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Breeding: Just 1 win from 21 for British bred runners.
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GENERAL STATS
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Age: 3yos have provided 2 winners from 10 (SR 20%); 4yos have provided 8 winners from 40 (SR 20%); 5yos+ have provided 0 winners from 35 (SR 0%).
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Trends analysis: This has been a market driven race with favourites having an excellent record, and the shorter the price the better. Horses priced 5/2 or shorter have a excellent record of 6 wins from only 9 qualifiers. Irish bred runners have done well as have Irish trainers, while horses that raced at Royal Ascot LTO have a good recent record. A win LTO has also been a positive. 4 year olds have dominated in recent years with not many 3 year olds prepared to take on their elders. 5yos have a very poor recent record.
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Dave Renham is a uk Horse Racing Researcher
For more info Click Here ==> Horse Racing Statistics
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