NEWBURY 2.50

EBF/THOROUGHBRED BREEDERS’ ASSOCIATION
MARES’ NOVICES’ CHASE FINAL (A HANDICAP)
(LISTED RACE) (CLASS 1) (5yo+)  2m6f110y

7/2 Jaunty Flight, 5/1 Lamanver Homerun, 13/2 Rate Of Knots, 15/2 Shatabdi, 10/1 Katess, 12/1 Aimigayle, 16/1 Pyleigh Lady, 33/1 Ceoperk, 50/1 Ruby Dante.

This is a Mares Chase around 22f. Its a Novice handicap and  messy statistically as it was formerly run at Uttoxeter and it hasn’t always been open to Novices so its very unsafe. It does have a long history though and what they show is this. They imply that a horse with a high weight may struggle as horses with 11st 3lbs or more had a poor 1-36 record in the last 14 renewals. That is a worry for LAMANVER HOMERUN

Horses aged under 7 in this race had a 0-29 record and Thats a statistic that could fall and it may well be the one trend that will determine If I get this race right.

We have AIMIGAYLE – KATESS  -  RATE OF KNOTS aged
six in this race. I was tempted by AIMIGAYLE but I decided to oppose these three horses aged 6. What swings it for me is that none of them are foaled before March 21st in the year they were officially born which technically means they are all not yet 6 year olds until a month or so so whilst I may have risked a horse aged 6 that was almost 7 these three are really just 5 year olds about to become 6 despite them being offically six year olds. RATE OF KNOTS is the least experienced and almost all past winners had more experience than she does.

I’d suggest RUBY DANTE and CEOPERK are too old as no past
winners were aged 9 or more. I’d be more interested in SHATABDI had she had a more recent run and ran better in that race.

Overall perhaps the best profile belonged to JAUNTY FLIGHT
and she won the mares hurdle final last year at this meeting. She has a superb profile and on soft ground she would be a confident bet. However this is not soft. Its good bordering on fast. They say JAUNTY FLIGHT wants soft ground and his form suggests that. He is from a sire (Busy Flight) that has 23 national hunt winners. All 23 came on ground that was soft. Those that ran on good or faster ground were 0-90 so you have to worry that JAUNTY FLIGHT may find the ground too fast. I would still save on him as his profile is brilliant. PYLEIGH LADY has a serious chance as well and I like her profile and 25/1 is far too
big a price. Because of the ground PYLEIGH LADY is my bet

SELECTION – PYLEIGH LADY E/W  14/1 at many places including Betfred , Ladbrokes, Bet365

Advice provided by The Mathematician

To Visit His site Click Here ==> Horse Racing Tipster

Saturday Tip From Football Bets

1pt Reading to beat Crystal Palace in the Championship,

6/4 Betfred, PaddyPower, Stan James, Totesport and on Ladbrokes shop coupons (Saturday 21st March 5.20pm ko)

The Royals currently sit in third place in the Championship, four points away from an automatic promotion slot but with a game in hand. Like their promotion rivals Wolves and Birmingham, Reading have struggled for consistency since Christmas, winning one week then losing the next. However, I think they will finish strongly for several reasons.

Firstly, they have strengthened the squad with two excellent signings in the last couple of weeks. Dave Kitson, whose goals fired them to the Premiership a couple of seasons ago, has returned on loan from Stoke, whilst the source of many of those goals, winger Glenn Little, has also rejoined from Portsmouth. They’ve both had a couple of games to settle in now and Kitson scored the winner at Doncaster during the week (His 55th goal in 113 league starts for Reading). Reading played very well in that game and manager Steve Coppell was delighted with the performance.

Reading’s win at Doncaster was Steve Coppell’s 1000th game in management, and this incredible wealth of experience should also stand Reading in good stead for the run in. They have also retained much of the team that won promotion to the Premiership so emphatically the first time round. These players now have added Premiership experience and they have been here and done it before. The return of Kitson and Little should be the catalyst for a strong finish.

We opposed Crystal palace last weekend against Swansea and typically, Swansea lost at home for only the second time all season. A large part of the reason for opposing Palace last week was their position in a mid table comfort zone. Another reason was Warnock’s comments in the run up to that game:

“We need major surgery to take the club forward now – a new influx of fresh blood is vital. The fans need that as much as I do.”

“We’ve all watched and watched as we’ve blown hot and cold. You’ve got to be consistent and we’re so inconsistent.”

“I’m looking towards next season all the time at the moment. One of my teams shouldn’t lose a game when they are winning 2-0 and I’m going to make sure I get the right people in.”

Maybe these comments were designed to get a reaction from his players and there’s a chance it may have worked. However, Palace were then well beaten at Barnsley during the week and Warnock has again written off his team:

“To be honest, I’ve felt it’s been over for a number of weeks. If I’m honest, we just aren’t good enough.”

If Warnock is trying to get another reaction from his players then he is going a funny way about it. You can maybe use this trick once and get something from it, but to write your team off twice in two weeks is surely going to have a negative affect on the players mentality? Palace are now twelve points adrift of the play offs with just eight games remaining. They are actually closer to the relegation zone, without being in any real danger of going down. If I was a Palace player I would be quite irritated by my manager’s comments and would probably be talking to my agent about looking for another club. It is a classic case of the boy who cried Wolf!

Reading beat Palace 4-2 back in August and with the arrival of Kitson and Little, have more than enough quality and motivation, to complete the double.

Minimum price to take – 5/4

The Oracle

To visit The Oracle’s site click here ===> Football Betting Tips