Horse Racing Stats

Just a snippet from the full message from www.RacingTrends.co.uk

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Value horses – horses that have key stats that backing such runners in the last 9 years would have shown good profits in the long term:

Sign of the Cross (7.50 Wolverhampton)

Draw section -

Ripon 5f (qualifying race today at 2.55) – In handicaps races of the 10 or more runners over 5f there have been 15 races in the past four seasons. Many of these races have seen the field split into two groups as the ground nearer to each rail is quicker than the centre of the course. This fact is demonstrated by the fact that 7 of the 16 winners were drawn in either the two lowest, or two highest stalls. Hence there should be an advantage to horses drawn 1, 2, 17 and 18. My feeling is that low may well have the edge on the likely fast ground.

Leicester 6f (qualifying race today at 1.55) – In handicaps races of the 10 or more runners over 6f the draw splits are currently (2005 to 2008):

bottom third of the draw 39.3% middle third of the draw 35.7% top third of the draw 25%

High draws have been at a slight disadvantage but it is not too significant.

Haydock 5f (qualifying race today at 6.10) – in handicap races of the 10 or more runners over 5f the draw splits are currently (2005 to 2008):

bottom third of the draw 32.1% middle third of the draw 32.1% top third of the draw 35.7%

A very even playing field with no draw advantage.

Haydock 1m (qualifying races today at 7.10 and 8.10) – in handicap races of the 10 or more runners over 1m the draw splits are currently (2005 to 2008):

bottom third of the draw 33.3% middle third of the draw 33.3% top third of the draw 33.3%

Amazingly the 51 races have been won equally (17 each) by the three sections of the draw. Even more amazingly the placed stats are virtually identical too!

Horses that ran well against a draw bias recently (NEW SECTION): Nisaal (1.00 Sandown) – first home on the stands side LTO when 4^th Comptonspirit (2.55 Ripon) – best of horses that raced towards the far side at Redcar LTO when 2^nd

POOR VALUE FAVOURITE - none

Trainer section

Positive trainer stats: please note certain stats will be repeated each day for several horses. It is simply a way of illustrating the type of horse a particular trainer has done consistently well with in the past.

FLAT

Mount Hermon (1:00 Sandown) – H Morrison – April to June – off the track for 6 months+ in handicaps; SR 18.8% ROI +70%

Royal Desert (2:30 Leicester)*** – M Channon – 2yo maidens March to May – top 3 in the betting; SR 29.8% ROI +12.8%  *** currently 14/1 and joint 5th in the betting

Holberg (3:05 Leicester) – Mark Johnston – horses stepping up in trip from 1m or less; SR 20% roi +22.7%

Racer Forever (3:40 Leicester) – John Gosden – runners in March / April coming back after a break of 100+ days; SR 28.3%; roi +37.2%;

Virtual (3:45 Sandown) John Gosden – male runners coming back after a break of 100+ days; SR 22.7%; roi +22.7%

Pipedreamer (4:15 Sandown) – John Gosden – runners in March / April coming back after a break of 100+ days; sr 28.3%; roi +37.2%;

Victorian Art (4:35 Ripon)*** – M Magnusson – all runners top 3 in betting SR 29% ROI +48%  *** Non runner

Cosimo (4:45Leicester) – Sir Michael Stoute – 3yos in maiden races off track for 6 months+ SR 32% roi +20%

Serious Impact (4:45Leicester) – John Gosden – male runners coming back after a break of 100+ days; sr 22.7%; roi +22.7%

Signaller (5:10 Ripon) – Mark Johnston – horses stepping up in trip from 1m or less; SR 20% roi +22.7%

Matraash (7:40 Haydock) – Mark Johnston – horses returning from break of 6 months+ running in a maiden SR 24.6% roi +27.8%

Frosted (8:50Wolverhampton) – John Gosden – runners in March / April coming back after a break of 100+ days; SR 28.3%; roi +37.2%

Ballet Dancer (8:50 Wolverhampton) – M jarvis – horses off the track for more than 6 months running in a maiden race SR 29%; roi +75%

NH

Winged Arrow (3:20 Market Rasen) J O’ Neill handicap hurdles aged 4 to 7 if priced 8/1 or shorter – SR 25% win & pl 53%; roi 20%  **** – currently priced 6/1

Trainer Course Stats

Sandown – All Races (best strike rates)

Trainer	Wins	Runs	SR	Profit	ROI
Sir M Prescott	11	34	32.4%	+£18.00	+52.9%
J Given	6	24	25.0%	+£29.50	+122.9%
H Cecil	17	76	22.4%	-£8.66	-11.4%
S Williams	8	36	22.2%	+£34.13	+94.8%
Sir M Stoute	54	252	21.4%	-£5.28	-2.1%
J Gosden	35	175	20.0%	-£22.93	-13.1%
J Noseda	11	55	20.0%	-£8.04	-14.6%
M Jarvis	25	128	19.5%	+£21.96	+17.2%
A O’Brien	4	21	19.0%	+£7.03	+33.5%
N Callaghan	9	50	18.0%	+£0.12	+0.2%
M Johnston	37	207	17.9%	+£7.54	+3.6%
C Wall	12	67	17.9%	+£30.25	+45.1%
S Bin Suroor	15	87	17.2%	-£7.57	-8.7%

Ripon – All Races (best strike rates)

Trainer	Wins	Runs	SR	Profit	ROI
H Cecil	11	31	35.5%	+£7.25	+23.4%
M Jarvis	14	43	32.6%	+£8.45	+19.7%
M Tregoning	7	22	31.8%	+£3.29	+15%
B Hills	34	109	31.2%	+£21.05	+19.3%
J Gosden	10	37	27%	-£9.56	-25.8%
J Dunlop	21	78	26.9%	-£11.25	-14.4%
Sir M Stoute	13	54	24.1%	-£19.76	-36.6%
T Tate	13	58	22.4%	+£99.08	+170.8%
P Cole	5	23	21.7%	+£9.81	+42.6%
J Fanshawe	8	38	21.1%	-£5.70	-15%
M Tompkins	9	46	19.6%	+£16.5	+35.9%
R Hannon	5	26	19.2%	+£4.57	+17.6%
C Brittain	6	32	18.8%	+£16.5	+51.6%

Haydock – All Races (best strike rates)

Trainer	Wins	Runs	SR	Profit	ROI
H  Cecil	15	49	30.6%	+£12.45	+25.4%
M Jarvis	49	175	28.0%	+£69.25	+39.6%
Sir M Stoute	23	90	25.6%	+£13.51	+15.0%
Sir M Prescott	14	56	25.0%	+£0.69	+1.2%
M Tregoning	8	33	24.2%	+£18.08	+54.8%
W Haggas	22	94	23.4%	+£25.69	+27.3%
Mrs A Duffield	8	36	22.2%	+£2.75	+7.6%
L Cumani	22	104	21.2%	+£10.54	+10.1%
Mrs L Stubbs	7	33	21.2%	+£20.00	+60.6%
M Quinlan	4	20	20.0%	+£8.16	+40.8%

Leicester – All Races (best strike rates)

Trainer	Wins	Runs	SR	Profit	ROI
S Bin Suroor	19	54	35.2%	-£3.90	-7.2%
J Noseda	8	24	33.3%	+£5.36	+22.3%
P Chapple-Hyam	12	40	30.0%	+£77.04	+192.6%
M Tregoning	10	35	28.6%	+£43.86	+125.3%
H Cecil	20	79	25.3%	+£18.15	+23.0%
L Cumani	21	97	21.6%	+£20.80	+21.4%
J Bethell	10	48	20.8%	+£31.50	+65.6%
J Fanshawe	23	114	20.2%	+£24.83	+21.8%

HOT TRAINERS (trainers who are currently in good form) – J.Gosden, W. Swinburn, B Hills, J Boyle, H Cecil, P Chappell-Hyam, P Evans, T Dascombe, R Fahey, T Barron

Horses with decent course records – none
Strong sire stats -

Lewyn (5.40 Haydock) – Exceed and Excel 2yos over 5f SR 24%

Crown (5.40 Haydock) – Royal Applause 2yos in 5f maidens class 5 or lower SR 22.5%; ROI +35%

For two other horses today, keep an eye on the going / weather. In the unlikely event the going goes soft or heavy at Leicester or Sandown, two horses are likely to run well due to solid sire stats in the mud:

Regal Parade (3.40 Leicester) ***** ONLY ON SOFT/HEAVY

Virtual (3.45 Sandown) ***** ONLY ON SOFT/HEAVY Negative Sire stats -

Kate Skate (5.40 Haydock) – Poor sire stat – Mark of Esteem 2yo non handicaps over 5f SR 3.3% ROI loss -71.3%

Pace information – average figure for each group should be 1.0 (based on 10+ runner handicaps)

Ripon 5f (2.55) Leaders 2.5 Prominent / chased leaders 1.1 Hold up / behind 0.45 Front runners have an advantage. Hold up horses are at a big disadvantage.

Most likely front runners drawn low are Mr Wolf (drawn 1); Nomoreblondes (drawn 3); most likely front runner drawn high is Speedy Senorita (drawn 17)

Horses noted 2 or more sections – None (unless the going goes soft/heavy then VIRTUAL in the 3.45 Sandown would qualify under 2 sections)

Racing Trends
Saturday, 25-Apr-2009

www.RacingTrends.co.uk

Saturday Horse Racing Tips from ===> Horse Racing Tips

1 Selection

Leicester 1.55

HUSTLE 5/1 Bet365

Each Way

The horse I want to bet  today
is HUSTLE. I think he will settle early and after a
furlong or so he will be a little outpaced and look
like he is under pressure. He should come back on
the bridle in the last two furlongs and use his turn
of foot to mow these down if Jamie Spencer can
ride him correctly. I dont think there are many
who can win this race. He comes from a good trial
race and will be finishing when many have cried
enough and I think it will take a dissapointing run
for him not be placed and I think he can win.

**********************************************
**********************************************

T O D A Y ‘S R A C I N G

Winner yesterday with REINDEER DIPPIN. He was not
pretty but he won in a workmanlike fashion and quite
a good price in such a small field and I have to be happy
with that. It may have been over hurdles and another
mismashed message but he won and I am keeping it
tight and profitable at the moment and whilst we are
lacking fireworks I am not in bad form. I am in control
of the racing at the moment which is a good sign.

LEICESTER 1.55

TotePLACEPOT HANDICAP (CLASS 4)
(4yo+,0-85) 5f218y

9/2 Hustle, 5/1 Pravda Street, 8/1 Kipchak, 8/1 Vhujon,
10/1 Filligree, 10/1 Gift Horse, 11/1 Dancing Maite,
11/1 Dickie Le Davoir, 12/1 Peter Island, 12/1 Sparton
Duke, 14/1 Harlech Castle, 16/1 Charles Darwin, 16/1
Timber Treasure, 20/1 Methaaly.

* This is a 0-85 handicap just short of 6 furlongs
* This race has an 13 year history
* There has been 100 similar races run at other tracks
* Seasonal debutants had a 1-43 record in this race
* FILLIGREE is a seasonal debutant filly
* 4yo fillies first time out like her won 3 races
* All 3 that won had ran in better grade than her
* She is also on a career high mark and not for me
* SPARTON DUKE is also a 4yo seasonal debutant
* These types are 0-18 in this race
* Horses with 1 run this year underperformed
* HARLECH CASTLE does this and comes from 5f
* Those with 1 run this year coming from 5f were 3-83
* None won this race at Leicester
* None anywhere lost as far as he did last time
* HARLECH CASTLE looks opposable
* Exposed horses with 1 run this year struggled
* All 36 that ran in this Leicester race lost
* PETER ISLAND fails that and has a months break
* GIFT HORSE fails this and usually wins later in the year
* TIMBER TREASURE doesnt appeal well beaten over 5f
* Horses dropping from 7f had a 1-48 record in this race
* In other races they did a bit better
* Those with under 7 runs though were just 1-33
* PRAVDA STREET does that
* Horses that won with under 7 runs were different types
* Those like him that ran this year were 1-31
* PRAVDA STREET is opposed
* KIPCHAK has just won over 7f
* All horses that came from 7f races had more backclass
* I didnt think he was safe in this race
* Not up 9lbs in the weights and up in class
* CHARLES DARWIN hasnt run into form yet
* I feel he needs more runs before he wins
* I cant find a winner like DICKIE LE DAVOIR
* He was beaten too far for me last time

SHORTLIST

HUSTLE
DANCING MAITE
VHUJON

* DANCING MAITE has a very solid profile
* I would have been happier with one factor
* No past winner came from the sand as he does
* I would have liked to have seen that
* HUSTLE comes from the same race as 2 past winners
* The 2006 and 2008 winners came from the same race
* VHUJON also ran in that race but has run since
* They were 4th and 5th in that race and hard to split
* VHUJON is not out of this
* My worry for VHUJON is stall one
* Not sure how bad a draw that might be
* I would rather be drawn high though
* My concern for HUSTLE is will he go the pace
* I see him at the back being bustled along
* I see him crusing through in the last furlong
* He will look the winner but will he run out of road
* His last race over 6f was actually sharper than this
* Despite less yardage this Course and Distance is stiffer
* It takes a second more to run over this trip and track
* Thats a massive help to HUSTLE in my view

SELECTION- HUSTLE each way 5/1 Bet365

Guy Ward

To visit Guy’s website Click Here ===> Horse Racing Tips

Weekend Football Betting Tottenham Hotspur v Newcastle United

Sunday 19^th April 1.30pm ko Live on Sky

H2H in Premier League

2008/2009
21/12/2008	Newcastle	2-1	Tottenham
2007/2008
30/03/2008	Tottenham	1-4	Newcastle
22/10/2007	Newcastle	3-1	Tottenham
2006/2007
14/01/2007	Tottenham	2-3	Newcastle
23/12/2006	Newcastle	3-1	Tottenham
2005/2006
01/04/2006	Newcastle	3-1	Tottenham
31/12/2005	Tottenham	2-0	Newcastle
2004/2005
10/04/2005	Tottenham	1-0	Newcastle
21/08/2004	Newcastle	0-1	Tottenham
2003/2004
14/03/2004	Tottenham	1-0	Newcastle
13/12/2003	Newcastle	4-0	Tottenham r

HOME/AWAY AVERAGES (LAST 20 GAMES) TOTTENHAM HOTSPUR – HOME

WON	7	35%	15/8
DRAW	7	35%	15/8
LOST	6	30%	23/10
OVER 2.5 GOALS	6	30%	23/10
UNDER 2.5 GOALS	14	70%	2/5
FOUR GOALS OR MORE	3	15%	11/2
0-0 DRAW	4	20%	4/1

NEWCASTLE UNITED – AWAY

WON	3	15%	11/2
DRAW	8	40%	6/4
LOST	9	45%	6/5
OVER 2.5 GOALS	13	65%	8/15
UNDER 2.5 GOALS	7	35%	15/8
FOUR GOALS OR MORE	6	30%	23/10
0-0 DRAW	3	15%	11/2

H2H (LAST 5 SEASONS – 11 LEAGUE GAMES)

OVER 2.5 GOALS	7	64%	4/7
UNDER 2.5 GOALS	4	36%	7/4
FOUR GOALS OR MORE	6	55%	5/6
0-0 DRAW	0	0%	-

THIS SEASONS GOAL AVERAGES PER GAME

THE PREMIERSHIP	2.5	HOME	AWAY
TOTTENHAM HOTSPUR	2.3	1.6	3
NEWCASTLE UNITED	2.8	3	2.6

CURRENT FORM TOTTENHAM HOTSPUR - LAST FIVE GAMES

Premier League	07/03/2009	Sunderland	1-1	Tottenham	DRAW
Premier League	15/03/2009	Aston Villa	1-2	Tottenham	WON
Premier League	21/03/2009	Tottenham	1-0	Chelsea	WON
Premier League	04/04/2009	Blackburn	2-1	Tottenham	LOST
Premier League	11/04/2009	Tottenham	1-0	West Ham	WON

NEWCASTLE UNITED - LAST FIVE GAMES

Premier League	04/03/2009	Newcastle	1-2	Man Utd	LOST
Premier League	14/03/2009	Hull	1-1	Newcastle	DRAW
Premier League	21/03/2009	Newcastle	1-3	Arsenal	LOST
Premier League	04/04/2009	Newcastle	0-2	Chelsea	LOST
Premier League	11/04/2009	Stoke	1-1	Newcastle	DRAW

TEAM NEWS Roman Pavlyuchenko and Jermaine Jenas are both struggling with injuries and are rated doubtful.   Jermaine Defoe is back in training and could be involved for Tottenham.   Obafemi Martins, Steven Taylor Jose Enrique and Peter Lovenkrands are all doubts for Newcastle.   Joey Barton remains on the sidelines but Mark Viduka is back in the squad.

TOTTENHAM HOTSPUR Squad: Gomes, Corluka, King, Woodgate, Assou-Ekotto, Huddlestone, Lennon, Jenas, Bent, Modric, Keane, Palacios, Pavlyuchenko, Cudicini, Bale, Zokora, Bentley, Dawson, Chimbonda, O’Hara, Hutton, Campbell.  

NEWCASTLE UNITED Squad:Harper, Forster, Krul, Beye, Bassong, Coloccini, S. Taylor, Edgar, Cacapa, Butt, Duff, R. Taylor, Gutierrez, Nolan, Guthrie, Lovenkrands, Geremi, Smith, Martins, Owen, Viduka, Carroll, Xisco, Ranger.      

TOP SCORERS (LEAGUE ONLY)

TOTTENHAM HOTSPUR                                               NEWCASTLE UNITED

PLAYER	Goals	PLAYER	Goals
Darren Bent	10	Michael Owen	8
Aaron Lennon	5	Obafemi Martins	7
Roman Pavlyuchenko	5	Shola Ameobi	4
Jermaine Jenas	3	Damien Duff	3
Robbie Keane	3	Steven Taylor	3
Jermain Defoe	2	Andrew Carroll	3

THE ORACLE’S MATCH PRICES (100% BOOK)

TOTTENHAM                 7/10      59%

DRAW                          14/5      26%

NEWCASTLE                11/2      15%      

ANALYSIS MATCH:   Tottenham are the form team coming into this one with five wins out of seven in the league. They were on course for six out of seven at Blackburn two weeks ago before a poor refereeing decision reduced them to ten men and they conceded two late goals. Tottenham’s form under Harry Redknapp has improved dramatically and they are now on course for a UEFA cup spot.   Newcastle are seven games without a win and have won once in sixteen. They are running out of games and have to start winning soon if they are to have any chance of staying up. Alan Shearer will be targeting three points from this one as a draw simply isn’t good enough at this stage of the season. Newcastle actually have a very good recent record against Tottenham, winning the last six in a row. However, those victories came under different managers and with better players. This current Newcastle side has one just three of their last twenty away games and I’ll be very surprised if they make it seven in a row on Sunday.   Newcastle have drawn twelve of their thirty two games this season which is more than any other Premiership side. At 3.9 on Betfair, the draw is possibly the value call in this market. However, with the carrot of European football in front of them and a near fully fit squad, I think Spurs will probably take all three points.

GOALS:   There is a strong history of high scoring games in this fixture with the last seven in a row featuring three or more and averaging 3.6 goals per game. Newcastle have one of the highest goals per game averages in the division at 2.8 goals per game and have kept just one clean sheet in their last fifteen. It is no coincidence that Shay Given left the club in January. Tottenham on the other hand have only averaged 2.3 goals per game and White Hart Lane has seen fewer goals than any other Premiership ground this season. I think this is partially down to Tottenham struggling in front of goal earlier this season and now that everyone is fit they look to have plenty of goals in the team.   There has never been a goal less draw between these two sides in the history of the Premiership. Newcastle have also scored more goals against Spurs than any other Premiership club. I think this could be an open game with both teams going for the win and consequently, I think evens about over 2.5 goals looks a bit of value here.

GOALSCORERS:   Robbie Keane is Tottenham’s main goal threat but at 13/8 doesn’t offer particular value. Newcastle’s Michael Owen does appear to be a shade of value at 11/4 to score anytime with PaddyPower. Owen has missed a large part of the season through injury but has fantastic goals to game ratio when he does play. He has had a few games to build up match fitness now and I expect to see his name on the score sheet sooner rather than later.  

RECOMMENDATIONS 1pt over 2.5 Goals evens Ladbrokes or 2.04 Betfair

Best Wishes

The Oracle

www.PremiershipPreview.co.uk