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Money-Back Special – Bowe-hemian Rhapsody
June 20, 2009 By Leave a Comment
Wokingham Stakes
June 20, 2009 By Leave a Comment
The big horse race of the day is the Wokingham Stakes at Royal Ascot
Below are some helpful facts and figures from Dave Renham at www.RacingTrends.co.uk
4.20 Ascot Wokingham Stakes (6f – handicap) 3yo+
N.B there was a dead heat in 2003 so we have 21 winners to consider.
POSITIVE TRENDS
| Price: 14 of the last 21 winners were priced between 10/1 and 20/1. |
| Position LTO: 16 of the last 21 winners finished in the first 4 LTO. |
| Distance LTO: Horses dropping down a furlong from running over 7f LTO have a good record with 8 wins from 85 qualifiers for a profit of 76 pts (ROI +89.4%). |
| Career wins:18 of the last 21 winners had won at least three times in their careers. |
NEGATIVE TRENDS
| Second favourites (inc. joints): 0 from 30. |
| Position LTO: Horses that finished 5th or worse LTO have provided 5 winners from 300 runners for a loss of 190 pts (ROI -63.3%). |
| Distance LTO: Horses stepping up from 5f LTO have a very poor record with just 1 win from 130 runners. |
| Last 6 runs: Horses that have failed to finish 1st or 2nd in at least one of their last six runs have provided 0 winners from 112. |
GENERAL STATS
| Favourites: 2 wins from 20 for a loss of 5 pts (ROI -25%). |
| Age: 3yos have won 0 races from 34 runners (SR 0%); 4yos have won 9 from 205 runners (SR 4.4%); 5yos have won 7 from 140 runners (SR 5%); 6yos have won 4 from 99 runners (SR 4%); 7yos+ have won 1 from 99 (SR 1%). |
| Trends Summary: One of the top handicap sprints of the year and with an average of around 27 runners it is not easy! Horses priced between 10/1 and 20/1 seem to offer the best value, assuming they have finished in the first four LTO. It is best to ignore horses that raced over 5f LTO, have not finished in the first two on at least one of their last six starts, and horses aged 7 or older. Using those five stats mentioned above would have found the winner in 60% of the races from only 18% of all runners. One final positive trend worth noting is the good record of horses dropping down from 7f LTO. |
Dave Renham
To visit Dave’s Site click Here ==> Horse Racing Statistics
Horse Racing Tip For Newmarket
June 20, 2009 By Leave a Comment
NEWMARKET 3.15
7/4 Cosmopolitan, 5/1 Lyceana, 13/2 Something Perfect,
7/1 15/2 Fanditha, 12/1 Astrodonna, 12/1 Penzena.
SELECTION – COSMOPOLITAN
This is a 8f Fillies Handicap for 0-84 rated horses and there’s been 11 renewals of this race and 68 elsewhere. Horses with 3 runs struggle. I wouldn’t be interested in PENZENA with 3 runs LYCENA is a seasonal debutant. I do not like that profile. I’ve found 3 that won first time out much as none dropped in trip as she does. I would not see her as a selection. ASTRODONNA has a poor profile and none were like her in 68 races. I have no major problems with SOMETHING PERFECT but None like him won this race at Newmarket but did win other races at other tracks.
SOMETHING PERFECT looks competetive to me but a win on
her debut has left her hardly thrown in. FANDITHA has a chance as well but I could only bet one horse.
COSMOPOLITAN is a 4yo thats just won a maiden. There
were four runners that did that and 3 won. In this race there were 3 doing it and 2 of these won so COSMOPOLITAN looks a big positive. She gave 11lbs to 3 year olds from some big stables when winning a maiden over 3 lengths last time. That suggests to me she could outclass a 0-76 class field like this. She has a Group 1 entry but the fact she has 8lbs more than any other horse and only has a 0-76 class field to beat swings it for me.
SELECTION – COSMOPOLITAN
7/4 at Tote and Ladbrokes
Guy Ward
To visit Guy’s Site Click Here ==> Horse Racing Tipster