This is a small snippet from a comprehensvive
client message from Dave Renham over at www.RacingTrends.co.uk

COURSE FAVOURITE STATS

This section looks at the stats for favourites at courses in certain
race types

(data taken from 2002 to 2008)

This is a small snippet from a comprehensvive
client message from Dave Renham over at www.RacingTrends.co.uk

COURSE FAVOURITE STATS

This section looks at the stats for favourites at courses in certain
race types

(data taken from 2002 to 2008)

Carlisle 9.35 – AMIR PASHA 14/1 Tote   Win Bet
Carlisle 9.35 – UNAWATUNA (Saver 4/1) Bet365

In the last race at Carlisle we have an emigma of a race.
I have brilliant trends in the race and they are demanding I bet here but the best horse UNAWATUNA is weak statistically and throws up a real dilemma. UNAWATUNA is the best horse and should win
yet I cant find a similar horse win a similar race and convincing myself to commit to her is like convincing Osama Bn Laden to eat a Pork Chop.

With AMIR PASHA high on my list in the race I have decided to have a saver on UNAWATUNA and buy her out of the race. AMIR PASHA is the only other horse I could bet.

CARLISLE 9.35

CFM RADIO ESCALA LIVE HERE TONIGHT
MAIDEN HANDICAP(CLASS 6)(4yo+ 0-65) 2m1f52y

11/4 Beauchamp Wonder, 11/4 Saxona, 9/2 Unawatuna,
13/2 Trempari, 12/1 Amir Pasha, 12/1 Roisin’s Prince,
16/1 Dawn Wind, 20/1 Uptown Lad, Countrywide Sun,
25/1 Dance Sauvage, 33/1 Art Gallery, 33/1 Sea Cove.

* This is a 17f Handicap for 0-62 rated horses
* July has seen 127 similar races between 2m and 19f
* There has been 550 handicaps between 2m and 19f
* Thats 550 handicaps in Class 5 and 6 at Any time of year
* These are every low grade 2m + staying handicap in the season
* Look at Horses from Maidens in these races
* They won just 9 of the 550 races
* When they came from maidens over 13f or shorter they flopped
* These types had a 1-132 record
* That horse ( Three Eagles) doesnt really count anyway
* Between his maiden run he ran in a Novice Hurdle.
* BEAUCHAMP WONDER has to be avoided on that stat
* She is a Filly from a 10f maiden with just 3 runs
* TREMPARI has to go from a 12f maiden
* SAXONA has to go as a mare from a 12f maiden
* SEA COVE wont be fit as a 9yo mare with 2 runs this year
* She has a 0-26 career record and looks outclassed
* ART GALLERY has a 0-25 record and looks poor
* DANCE SAUVAGE hasnt won in 27 races
* He was beaten 69 lengths last time out
* He looks a very poor animal who shouldnt trouble the judge
* COUNTRYWIDE SUN has ran just twice since 2008
* Both runs were heavy defeats
* He doesnt look in good enough form
* UPTOWN LAD finished well beaten last time out
* Horses like him beaten 10 + lengths last time did win races
* Those aged 9 or more were just 1-81
* UPTOWN LAD is a 10 year old and best known as a chaser
* He looks an unlikely winner
* I cant see a case for DAWN WIND
* Not as a 4yo filly with a miserable record
* ROISIN´S PRINCE has ran twice at long trips
* He placed over 2 miles at Southwell in January
* That offers hope he will stay but its not conclusive
* His sire (Bold Fact) is 0-61 with all runners at 10f and more
* Thats a massive worry for as horse racing over 17f +
* The added worry is he is a small horse on a stiff track
* He has twice ran poorly over hurdles recently
* It does require a leap of faith to bet him over this far

SHORTLIST

AMIR PASHA
UNAWATUNA

* AMIR PASHA stared his 3yo career for W Swinburn
* He lost his first 6 races and went hurdling
* Since then he has twice come back to the flat
* At Musselburgh in April he was 3rd in a 0-70 handicap
* If he repeats that he could win
* He hasnt ran too badly since over hurdles
* I like that he is unexposed and in a very weak race
* AMIR PASHA has a chance here
* UNAWATUNA offers a real dilemma
* On the Positive side she has the best form in the race
* She stays all day and has achieved more in 7 runs than anything here
* She is lightly raced and has more improvement than anything
* She looks simply better than her awful rivals
* On the downside there are serious statistical worries
* She is a filly with just 1 run this year and a break of 57 days
* Fillies aged 4 with 1 run that year were 0-16 in the 127 races
* Few were fancied though but its a worry
* The lighter raced you are the more you can forgive
* UNAWATUNA offers a genuine dilemma in such a poor race

SELECTION – UNAWATUNA 14/1 Tote

SAVER – AMIR PASHA Bet365

Guy

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