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Punter Profits Portfolio nails 2 from 2

May 8, 2010 By Dave Leave a Comment

Good day today for my sister site www.punterprofits.com – the National Hunt Portfolio which is the flagship system of the site had two winners today at 9/4 and 7/4 – the 9/4 qualified on 2 systems so effectively was a 9/2 winner. The Racing Trends members had a BSP 18.5 winner (industry SP 14/1) flagged up in the positive stats in Realt Na Mara (5.30 Lingfield).

Good day “in running” personally today with two excellent arbs made from big priced runners trading quite low “in running”. A BSP 60.0 traded around 2.6 – although I only managed to arb 48.0 and 5.0.

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Money-Back Special – Second Chance Saturday!

May 8, 2010 By PaddyPower Bookmaker Money Back Specials Leave a Comment

3.25 Ascot – 3.35 Haydock
Money-Back Special
If your horse finishes second in either of the above races, we will refund your losing single stake.
Conditions

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Victoria Cup Ascot 3.25 – some long term trends (last 15 years)

May 8, 2010 By Dave Leave a Comment

POSITIVE TRENDS

Draw: Draws 10 or higher have provided 14 of the last 15 winners.
Position LTO: 9 of the 15 winners finished in the first three LTO.
Career wins: 10 of the last 15 winners had won just once or twice in their careers. Backing all qualifiers would have yielded a profit of £46.00 (ROI +35.7%).

 NEGATIVE TRENDS

Draw: 135 horses have been drawn in single figures but only 1 has won. 
Price: Horses priced 33/1 or bigger have produced 1 winner from 106 runners for a loss of £72.00 (ROI -67.9%).
Beaten distance LTO: Horses beaten by 6 or more lengths LTO have provided just 2 winners from 139 for a loss of £90.00 (ROI -64.8%).
Weight: The top three in the weights (inc. joints) have provided 0 winners from 47.
Price LTO: Horses priced 16/1 or bigger LTO have provided just 1 winner from 107 for a loss of £90.00 (ROI -84.1%).
Distance LTO: Horses that raced over 6f or shorter LTO have provided only 1 winner from 68 runners for a loss of £53.00 (ROI -77.9%).

 GENERAL STATS 

Favourites (inc. joints): 3 win from 21 for a loss of £1.00 (ROI -4.8%).
Fate of the favourites: 3, 6/5/7/12/22, 17, 1, 2, 10, 5/15, 3, 4, 26, 1, 6, 21, 1/2, 12
Age: 4yos have 6 races from 145 qualifiers (SR 4.1%); 5yos have won 6 races from 115 qualifiers (SR 5.2%); 6yos have won 3 races from 51 qualifiers (SR 5.9%); 7yo+ have won 0 from 43 (SR 0%).

 

Trends analysis: This race has more negatives than positives and the most prudent way to ‘attack’ this race would be by trying to eliminate as many runners as possible by using the negative trends. Horses priced 16/1 or bigger on their last run have a poor record and should eliminated from calculations as should horses beaten by 6 or more lengths LTO. The draw has been very important over the years with low draws really struggling. This is unusual on the straight course at Ascot as low draws can often enjoy an advantage.   

*****************************************
Dave Renham is a uk Horse Racing Researcher
For more info Click Here ==> Horse Racing Statistics
*****************************************

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Horse Racing Tip For Saturday

May 8, 2010 By sports betting blog Leave a Comment

Horse Racing Tip For Saturday

This comes from Guy over at www.mathematician-betting.co.uk

LINGFIELD 5.30

6/1 My Learned Friend, 13/2 Hazzard County, Oh So Saucy
7/1 Shaded Edge, 8/1 Realt Na Mara, 8/1 Rubenstar
8/1 Straight Face, 10/1 Alqaahir, 12/1 Headache
12/1 Ravi River, 14/1 Carmenero, 14/1 El Libertador
25/1 Sam´s Cross, 33/1 Oi Vay Joe, 66/1 Crystal B Good.

This 7f handicap is for Lady Amateurs. You can argue a
high draw is a must in this race but last years winner was
drawn in stall 1 just to throw uncertainty into the mix.
I’d be demanding a high draw myself. OH SO SAUCY looks
weak as a mare absent over 7 months and drawn 1. I see
ALQAAHIR as opposable. All his wins (5) are on sand
so having never won on turf its strange to see him with
a higher handicap mark on grass and I don’t like his draw.
EL LIBERTADOR – CRYSTAL B GOOD -  HEADACHE
are all badly drawn and offering nothing at all to entice me.
OI VAY JOE has been absent too long. I am happy to ignore
SAM´S CROSS – SHADED EDGE with their absences.
HAZZARD COUNTY is more complicated but he does not
come out well enough. I cant rule out REALT NA MARA but
exposed and unraced in over 6 months brings it’s own problems.
RAVI RIVER looks weak from sellers. CARMENERO weak up in trip.

MY LEARNED FRIEND is shortlistable after coming
4th in last years race from a poor draw first time out.
He has a run this year.

My selection is STRAIGHT FACE who won last time.
Its quite interesting that the last 3 winners of this race
all won last time out. Since 1993 last time out winners
in all Amateur races that had 4 or more runs that year
and that were aged under 8 years old had an excellent
W W W W W record in these races. He was a little bit
lucky to win last time but the real issue is he is fit and
running well with confidence and well drawn and with
similar horses doing curiously well in these races I see
STRAIGHT FACE as a good a bet as any in this race.

STRAIGHT FACE Each Way
8/1 William Hill 0r Betfred

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COURSE FAVOURITE STATS

May 8, 2010 By sports betting blog Leave a Comment

Below is a small portion of the very comprehensive horse racing data message from www.RacingTrends.co.uk

The bit I have picked out covers stats for favourites for races running Saturday May 8th

His full message also contains a lot more data about draw bias and trainers etc.

COURSE FAVOURITE STATS FLAT – this is a section looking at the stats for favourites at courses in certain race types

Ascot favourites

Race type Wins Bets SR (%) Profit ROI (%) Race Times
3yo+/4yo+ handicaps 49 240 20.4 -£36.47 -15.2 2.50, 3.25, 4.35, 5.10
2yo maidens 5 31 16.1 -£17.12 -55.2 4.00

Haydock favourites

Race type Wins Bets SR (%) Profit ROI (%) Race Times
3yo+/4yo+ handicaps 86 387 22.2 -£34.40 -8.9 5.20
2yo maidens 51 140 36.4 +£2.45 +1.8 2.30

Lingfield favourites

Race type Wins Bets SR (%) Profit ROI (%) Race Times
3yo handicaps 28 93 30.1 +£22.80 +24.5 4.55
3yo+/4yo+ handicaps 49 186 26.3 +£7.63 +4.1 5.30
3yo+ maidens 31 73 42.5 -£3.31 -4.5 4.20

Nottingham favourites

Race type Wins Bets SR (%) Profit ROI (%) Race Times
3yo handicaps 49 183 26.8 -£15.98 -8.7 2.55, 5.15
3yo+/4yo+ handicaps 75 313 24.0 -£28.74 -9.2 1.55, 2.25, 4.05, 4.40, 5.45

Thirsk favourites

Race type Wins Bets SR (%) Profit ROI (%) Race Times
3yo+/4yo+ handicaps 75 288 26.0 -£11.14 -3.9 6.35, 7.05, 7.35, 8.35
3yo+ maidens 28 72 38.9 -£17.55 -24.4 8.05

Warwick favourites

Race type Wins Bets SR (%) Profit ROI (%) Race Times
3yo handicaps 15 84 17.9 -£29.26 -34.8 8.20
3yo+/4yo+ handicaps 51 264 19.3 -£57.74 -21.9 5.50, 6.50, 7.50
3yo+ maidens 32 65 49.2 +£12.46 +19.2 7.20
2yo maidens 58 127 45.7 +£10.24 +8.1 6.20

FAVOURITE STATS – this is a section looking at the stats for favourites certain race types. These race types occur less often so the course favourite stats for such races would have fairly small samples – hence they have been grouped together to give you an overview.

Race type Wins Bets SR Profit ROI Race Times
3yo Group races 56 170 32.9 -£14.21 -8.4 Ling 3.10
3yo Listed 73 219 33.3 -£29.42 -13.4 Ling 2.40
All age Group 3 races 89 285 31.2 -£22.86 -8 Ling 2.10
3yo+ Listed 191 605 31.6 -£76.99 -12.7 Asco 2.20, Hayd 2.00, Nott 3.30
3yo+/4yo+ sellers 321 1018 31.5 +£29.07 2.9 Thir 6.05
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Saturday Horse Racing – Stats and trends to aid your betting

May 8, 2010 By Dave Leave a Comment

Sat May 8th 2010

Best races for favourites  

4.55, 5.30 Lingfield

6.20, 7.20 Warwick

Trainer stat to note

Michael Jarvis has had 10 winners and 5 placed horses from 22 runners in the past 14 days. He has 6 runners today:

2:30       Haydock  Clarke Lane

3:10       Lingfield   Hot Prospect

3:45       Lingfield   Alainmaar

4:20       Lingfield   Super Collider

4:55       Lingfield   Atlaal

7:20       Warwick  Ellbeedee

Best races for front runners

1.55, 5.15, 5.45 Nottingham; 5.50 Warwick;

 Strong course trainer stats 

Ascot

Trainer Wins Runs Strike Rate (%) Profit ROI (%) Engagements
M L W Bell 13 66 19.7 +£57.26 +86.8 4.00, 4.35
W J Haggas 18 95 19.0 +£89.30 +94.0 4.00

 Haydock

Trainer Wins Runs Strike Rate (%) Profit ROI (%) Engagements
M A Jarvis 26 98 26.5 +£35.72 +36.5 2.30
H R A Cecil 4 19 21.1 +£0.33 +1.7 5.20
J H M Gosden 13 63 20.6 +£6.98 +11.1 2.30, 4.45

Lingfield (turf)

Trainer Wins Runs Strike Rate (%) Profit ROI (%) Engagements
A P O’Brien 3 5 60.0 +£2.98 +59.5 3.10, 3.10
J H M Gosden 8 25 32.0 +£7.58 +30.3 2.40
M Botti 4 13 30.8 +£26.75 +205.8 2.10
C F Wall 6 21 28.6 +£38.88 +185.1 2.10, 5.30
W Jarvis 6 24 25.0 +£17.00 +70.8 5.30
R M Beckett 9 44 20.5 +£40.45 +91.9 2.40, 4.55

*****************************************
Dave Renham is a uk Horse Racing Researcher
For more info Click Here ==> Horse Racing Statistics
*****************************************

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Friday “in running” horse racing review

May 8, 2010 By Dave Leave a Comment

Friday review

3.05 Lingfield – Premium Charge did not trade lower in running.

6.55 Ripon – Shotley Mac did not lead but traded 5.0 having started on Betfair at over 20/1

8.50 Hamilton – The Bear did lead and also traded 5.0 started around 22s BSP.

So 2  successful trades / arbs to finish the trial.

Members of www.racingtrends.co.uk get this type of pace info every day in their daily horse racing message.

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Lower League Odds Round Up

May 8, 2010 By Football Betting News From William Hill Bookmaker Leave a Comment

WILLIIAM HILL…………..LOWER LEAGUE ODDS ROUND UP…….

TO MAKE CHAMPIONSHIP PLAY-OFFS……2/7 Blackpool; 5/2 Swansea

TO BE RELEGATED FROM CHAMPIONSHIP………4/6 Sheff Wed; 11/10 Palace

TO WIN AUTOMATIC PROMOTION FROM LEAGUE ONE…..8/11 Leeds; 6/5 Millwall; 10/1 Swindon; 33/1 Charlton

TO BE PROMOTED FROM LEAGUE TWO…….5/2 Rotherham; 4/1 Aldershot; 9/2 Bury; 11/2 Port Vale; 7/1 Northampton; 8/1 Morecambe; 9/1 Dagenham & Redbridge; 9/1 Chesterfield.

RELEGATED FROM LEAGUE TWO……1/7 Grimsby; 4/1 Barnet

TO WIN Blue Square PLAY OFFS……7/4 Luton Town; 9/4 Oxford; 3/1 York; 7/2 Rushden.

Further information……..graham sharpe…0208 918 3731

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Hodgson 9/2 To Be Next England Boss + Prem Specials

May 8, 2010 By Football Betting News From William Hill Bookmaker Leave a Comment

********************************William Hill WEEKEND PREMIER LEAGUE SPECIALS****************************************

SPURS ODDS ON TO WIN BATTLE FOR FOURTH

William Hill offer 5/1 that the race to finish 4th in the Premier League will be decided on goal difference, but make Spurs 10/11 to come out on top, with Man City (whose Carlos Tevez is 1/16 still to be at City on the first day of next season despute his problems with Mancini’s training regime) at 5/4, Villa 8/1 and Liverpool 16/1.
LIVERPOOL OUT – RAFA, TOO?

WITH Liverpool’s exit from the Europa League, William Hill have made Rafa Benitez odds on to leave the club before the start of next season at 4/6, while quoting him at 11/10 still to be there. ‘Rafa’s Liverpool world has been crumbling slowly about him all season and he is now left clutching at straws with Liverpool 16/1 to finish 4th and qualify for the Champions League’ said Hill’s spokesman Graham Sharpe.
William Hill…..Still at Liverpool on the 1st day of next season?:
Torres 8/15 Yes, 11/8 No.
Gerrard 1/5 Yes, 7/2 No.

Hodgson 9/2 to be next England boss:
William Hill NOW MAKE FULHAM 5/4 TO LIFT THE EUROPA LEAGUE, WITH ATLETICO MADRID THE 4/7 FAVOURITES. ‘Another match as underdogs will not faze Fulham’ said Hill’s spokesman Graham Sharpe.Hills make Roy Hodgson 7/4 to be voted Prem League manager of the year and 9/2 to be the next England manager.’Hodgson was a contender for the England job when Sven got it – maybe his day is about to come at last.’

TO WIN PREM TITLE…1/2 Chelsea; 6/4 United…To be decided by goal diff – 7/2; United by goal diff – 9/1; United by goal diff – 15/2…Title decided on last day of season? – yes 1/25; no 9/1.

Hills….Premier League Manager Of The Year
Carlo Ancelotti 6/4
Alex Ferguson 7/4
Roy Hodgson 7/4

Hills….Total Goals In Prem This Weekend
Under 26 13/8
26-28 13/8
Over 28 7/4

Hills….Tevez Man City Player 1st Day Of Next Season
Yes 1/16
No 7/1

Hills…Roy Hodgson Next England Manager 9/2
Hills….MOURINHO’S NEXT CLUB…
Real Madrid….6/4
Liverpool….4/1
Man City….4/1
Man Utd….6/1
Barcelona….9/1
Arsenal….12/1
Chelsea…..20/1
Others On Request
Hills….Game With Most Goals
Tottenham v Bolton 5/1
Birmingham v Burnley 13/2
Sunderland v Man Utd 13/2
Man City v Aston Villa 13/2
Liverpool v Chelsea 13/2
Blackburn v Arsenal 13/2
Portsmouth v Wolves 8/1
Fulham v West Ham 8/1
Wigan v Hull 8/1
Stoke v Everton 10/1

Hills…..Game With Quickest Goal (Match Minute)
Tottenham 7/1
Man Utd 8/1
Birmingham 9/1
Wigan 11/1
Man City 11/1
Chelsea 11/
Everton 12/1
Arsenal 12/1
Fulham 12/1
Portsmouth 14/1
Wolves 16/1
West Ham 16/1
Blackburn 18/1
Stoke 18/1
Liverpool 18/1
Aston Villa 20/1
Hull 25/1
Burnley 25/1
Sunderland 25/1
Bolton 25/1

Hills….Hat-Trick In Prem This Weekend
Yes 4/1
No 1/7

Hills….How Many Red Cards In Prem This Weekend?
None 9/4
One 7/4
Two Or More 5/4
Further information……Graham Sharpe….0208 918 3731

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