sports betting and horse betting information
Bayern Munich v Inter Milan
Champions League Final
Sat. 7.45pm ITV1, RTE2 & SS1
Money-Back Special
If this match is decided in a penalty shoot out, Paddy Power will refund all losing 1st/last goalscorer, correct score and scorecast singles on the match.
Conditions
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Banker Builder Coupon
International Matches
World Cup Matches
Live Matches
Soccer Whopper Coupon
2.30 Haydock
If your horse finishes second to the SP favourite in this race, we will refund your losing single stake. Conditions
Ten previews today for full members.
Impossible to go throughit all with so many
meetings and as ever it’s theusual Saturday balancing
act of trying to offer a balanced message with potential
bets withoutkilling the chances through looking at too much.
This feels like a tough Saturday to me. Plenty of
the big field Saturday television handicaps today.
Statistically the strongest profiles in these races
have non – statistical problems with the likes of
Our Joe Mac and Ziggy Lee in the 2.30 and 3.40
races having outstanding profiles but issues to
overcome with the ground and the draw. I don’t
see either as safe enough to go with as a bet. I’d
not see this as a message to follow all the way to
the end as the races are too difficult and there is
a limit to how many winners we can have today.
Would have liked a strong bet on a Saturday but
if there is not one so be it. I think the race that I’d
be best to advise to bet in would be the Haydock
Mile handicap at 4.40pm. I think I have the correct
mix of negatives prices and profiles in the race and
I want to use this race to try and get a winner for
full members.
They quite rightfully complain however if the strongest bets
go up here on the free blog so I have selected another race
from the main message here today.
CHESTER 5.10
Lambrini Original Handicap (CLASS 4) (4yo+ 0-85) 1m2f75y
7/2 Norwegian Dancer, 7/2 Prince Of Johanne
9/2 Bullet Man 6/1 I´m In The Pink, 10/1 Kidlat
10/1 Paquerettza, 20/1 Geneva Geyser, 25/1 Dragon Slayer
33/1 Bagutta Sun.
This is a 10f handicap for 0-85 rated horses. We have 145
similar races at this time of year. I think KIDLAT looks to
have too much to do well beaten just 2 days ago. Horses
beaten more than 10 lengths with just 1 run this season
had a miserable record. Those like GENEVA GEYSER that
dropped in trip were 0-50 and he looks weak. Another to
fall foul of that stat is DRAGON SLAYER too old for me
to overcome such a defeat. I’d oppose BAGUTTA SUN
from a 7f race. Only 2 of the 145 winners did that but its
relevant none were fillies and none as inexperienced as
she is. PRINCE OF JOHANNE has a complicated profile.
I looked at all 4 year olds like him with 7-12 runs who are
running within the last fortnight and found a poor 1-39
record. I can improve that record if I look at horses that
ran 2-4 weeks away but none were 1st or 2nd last time
and most had less weight. I think he is a borderline case
for shortlisting as he is complicated. What I dont like is
his Draw in stall 1. At this trip thats not the best draw
as very low drawn horses can often get cut off at what
is a very quick first bend. Overall I felt he was never a
horse I would select so I leave him off the shortlist. It’s
hard to rule out I´M IN THE PINK but I was not happy
with a horse without any backclass coming down from
a 12f race and found a weak profile. As it is already a
heavy shortlist as it is such an open race I am leaving
I´M IN THE PINK off it as there are better profiles.
SHORTLIST
NORWEGIAN DANCER has a good profile and from all
4 year olds winning with 1 run that season he comes out
as quite similar to those so is a positive. I have found 1
similar winner to PAQUERETTZA. Not a prolific profile
but it gets her shortlisted. No reason why BULLET MAN
cant win this race. 3 shortlisted. Open race. Tight Decision.
SELECTION
BULLET MAN each way
5/1 PaddyPower Ladbrokes Betfred blue sq Stan James
Guy Ward
For More info on Guys advisory service
click here ===> Betting Advice
3.00 Haydock Temple Stakes – 5f (3yo+, Group 2) – 15 year trends for the race
POSITIVE TRENDS
| Recent wins: 14 of the last 15 winners had won at least once in their last four starts. |
| Class LTO: Horses that raced in Listed class or class 2 LTO have provided 7 winners. Although there have been 60 qualifiers, such qualifiers have produced a decent profit of £43.50 (ROI +72.5%). |
| Market: 12 of the last 15 winners came from the top 4 in the betting. |
| Price: 12 of the last 15 winners have been priced 10/1 or lower (6 of the winners were priced 7/2 or shorter). |
| Career wins: Horses that have previously won 8 or more races in their careers have provided 5 winners from 27 qualifiers for a profit of £34.50 (ROI +127.8%). |
| Position LTO: Horses that finished 1st or 2nd LTO have provided 8 of the last 15 winners. |
NEGATIVE TRENDS
| Recent form: Horses that have failed to win in their last four starts have provided just 1 winner from 54 qualifiers for a loss of £37.00 (ROI -68.5%). |
| Distance winners: Horses that have failed to win over 5f in their careers have provided just 1 winner from 28 for a loss of £24.50 (ROI -87.5%). |
GENERAL STATS
| Favourites (inc. joints): 5 wins from 18 for a small loss of 51 pence. |
| Fate of the favourites: 1, 1, 7, 3, 4, 5, 1/3, 4/5, 1/3, 3, 11, 1, 3, 10, 2 |
| Sex: Fillies and mares have won 5 races from 35 (SR 14.3%); colts and geldings have won 10 races from 108 runners (SR 9.3%). |
| Age: 3 year olds have provided 3 winners from 27 (SR 11.1%); 4 year olds have provided 4 winners from 36 (SR 11.1%); 5 year olds have provided 3 winners from 29 (SR 10.3%); 6 year olds have provided 2 winners from 27 (SR 7.4%); 7 year old plus have provided 3 winners from 24 (SR 12.5%). |
| Trainers: The Berry stable has won the race four times – 3 wins for Jack in ’95, ’96 and ’98, while son Alan landed the race last year. |
| Trends analysis: A good starting point is to look for horses that have won at least once in their last four starts. From there, preference would be for horses priced 10/1 and shorter, unless they have failed to win over 5f in their careers. Horses that raced in Listed class or class 2 contests LTO have been profitable to follow and are probably underrated by the betting public. Females have outperformed their male counterparts, while age wise there seems little bias. |
If you are a follower of trainers who are in form then these trainers have had at least 3 winners coupled with a strike rate of 20% or more over the last 2 weeks:
| Trainer | Runners | Winners | Strike rate% |
| H R A Cecil | 27 | 10 | 37.0 |
| R Charlton | 18 | 6 | 33.3 |
| H Morrison | 13 | 4 | 30.8 |
| L M Cumani | 20 | 5 | 25.0 |
| M Dods | 21 | 5 | 23.8 |
| J R Jenkins | 13 | 3 | 23.1 |
| M Al Zarooni | 22 | 5 | 22.7 |
| J Noseda | 18 | 4 | 22.2 |
| R M Whitaker | 14 | 3 | 21.4 |
| T D Barron | 19 | 4 | 21.1 |
| C E Brittain | 15 | 3 | 20.0 |
| J Howard Johnson | 15 | 3 | 20.0 |
Stats for Saturday
Best races for favourites
Chester 2.25, 4.00
Lingfield 5.20, 7.30, 8.00
York 3.40, 5.25
Trainer pointer
Redden (5.15 Haydock) – Willie Haggas has good record with horses coming back after a break especially if near the head of the market.
Best races for front runners
Haydock 2.30, 4.40
Chester 2.55
Chester trainer stats
| Trainer | Wins | Runs | Strike Rate (%) | Profit | ROI (%) | Engagements |
| E S McMahon | 8 | 27 | 29.6 | +£13.25 | +49.1 | 5.10 |
| G A Swinbank | 4 | 15 | 26.7 | +£6.50 | +43.3 | 4.35, 5.45 |
| M L W Bell | 5 | 22 | 22.7 | +£13.63 | +61.9 | 5.45 |
Haydock trainer stats
| Trainer | Wins | Runs | Strike Rate (%) | Profit | ROI (%) | Engagements |
| W S Kittow | 4 | 11 | 36.4 | +£9.50 | +86.4 | 4.05 |
| Sir Michael Stoute | 13 | 47 | 27.7 | +£17.95 | +38.2 | 3.00 |
| D M Simcock | 3 | 11 | 27.3 | -£0.38 | -3.4 | 2.30, 4.05, 4.40 |
| M A Jarvis | 26 | 98 | 26.5 | +£35.72 | +36.5 | 3.30 |
| P J Makin | 5 | 20 | 25.0 | +£10.25 | +51.3 | 4.40 |
| Patrick Morris | 1 | 4 | 25.0 | +£30.00 | +750.0 | 4.05 |
| W J Haggas | 12 | 50 | 24.0 | +£10.36 | +20.7 | 5.15 |
York trainer stats
| Trainer | Wins | Runs | Strike Rate (%) | Profit | ROI (%) | Engagements |
| J L Dunlop | 16 | 56 | 28.6 | +£87.00 | +155.4 | 3.10 |
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Dave Renham is a uk Horse Racing Researcher
For more info Click Here ==> Horse Racing Statistics
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BETTING ON BECKS TO BOOST WORLD CUP BID
WITH DAVID BECKHAM part of the team handing over England’s hefty bid to stage the 2018 World Cup in Zurich on Friday, William Hill now make England odds-on favourites to win the right to host the competition, at 10/11. ‘Having not staged the tournament since 1966 – which will be over half a century ago by 2018 – there is a strong feeling that it would be appropriate to return here sooner rather than later, and the betting reflects that’ said Hill’s spokesman Graham Sharpe.
Hills also offer 4/1 Spain/Portugal joint bid; 9/2 Russia; 8/1 Australia; 8/1 Holland/Belgium joint bid; 33/1 USA; 66/1 Indonesia.
Further information…graham sharpe…0208 918 3731…(follow gs on Twitter – sharpeangle)
AFTER his success with Fulham over the past couple of seasons, fans of the club will hope Roy Hodgson remains there at the start of next season, and William Hill believe he will, quoting 1/2 that he is still there, 6/4 that he has moved on. ‘Roy has done a great job and may feel he can do even better next season – or might believe the time is right to go while he is attracting plaudits’ said Hill’s spokesman Graham Sharpe.
Roy Hodgson to be Fulham manager on the 1st day of 2010/11 season: 1/2 YES 6/4 NO
WILL JT SEE THE FA CUP FINAL OUT IF HE STARTS?
WITH JOHN TERRY’S fitness a doubt as the Cup Final approaches, William Hill have opened a book on how long the Chelsea skipper will play in the game should he start, and make the whole of the 90 minutes their 1/6 favourite. ‘Terry is a Chelsea talisman and he won’t want to miss the celebrations if they win so will probably have to be dragged off , but if he is injured he’ll be aware of the imminent World Cup and won’t want to exacerbate the situation’ said Hill’s spokesman Graham Sharpe.
How long will John Terry play in the FA Cup final (if starting the match):
How Long Will John Terry Play In The FA Cup Final*: 14/1 0-15, 25/1 16-30, 16/1 31-Half Time, 20/1 46-60, 14/1 61-75, 8/1 76-89, 1/6 Complete the match
*Terry must start the match or bets void (90 minute betting only.)
Role Up For The £10 Million FA Final!
William Hill are expecting industry turnover of ten million pounds plus for the FA Cup final as the Big punters are expected to come steaming in for 1/6 favourites Chelsea. “On paper the game is a mismatch but we think our high rollers will come steaming in for Chelsea to bolster their World Cup betting accounts,” said Hill’s spokesman Rupert Adams.
One Hills punter from Hampshire stands to win £3000 should Portsmouth win, having backed them at 150/1 with £20 early on in the tournament but it is the Chelsea double that Hills fear with some massive liabilities.
FA CUP Final:
90 Minutes: 1/6 Chelsea, 12/1 Portsmouth, 13/2 Draw
To Win In Extra Time: 12/1 Chelsea, 28/1 Portsmouth
To Win On Penalties: 22/1 Chelsea, 28/1 Portsmouth
Chelsea 8-0: 150/1
Further Information…….Rupert Adams…..0208 918 3858…….0784 1011 584
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