Cambridgeshire Ten Year Trends
Cambridgeshire Ten Year Trends
Racing research boffin Dave Renham over at
has just sent out some interesting free research on this weekend’s
Cambridgeshire at Newmarket.
I have copied it here for you.
Cambridgeshire (3yo+)
Course – Newmarket
Distance – 1 mile 1 furlong
Date – September 28th
Average field size last 10 years – 32
Market Trends
Favourites (inc. joints): 2 wins from 12 for a break even situation.
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Top three in betting: 4 wins for the top three in the betting.
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Top six in betting: 6 wins for the top six in the betting.
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Price: Horses priced 14/1 or bigger have provided 6 of the last 10 winners.
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LTO stats
Days since last run: 6 of the last 10 winners had been off the track for 16 days or less.
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Position LTO: 1 win for horses that won LTO (from 54 runners).
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Position LTO: 4 wins for horses that finished in the first three LTO from 123 runners.
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LTO favourites: 2 wins for horses that were favourite LTO (from 55 runners).
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LTO Top three in betting: 3 wins for horses from the top three in the betting LTO (from 143 runners).
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LTO price: Horses priced 9/1 to 20/1 LTO have provided 7 of the last 10 winners.
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LTO race type: Horses that ran in a non handicap LTO have provided 0 winners from 71.
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LTO course: Horses that raced at Newbury LTOhave provided 5 wins from 58.
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Age
Age
|
Wins
|
Runners
|
SR%
|
Profit/loss
|
ROI%
|
3
|
3
|
65
|
4.6
|
-£39.00
|
-60.0
|
4
|
3
|
129
|
2.3
|
-£82.00
|
-63.6
|
5
|
2
|
58
|
3.5
|
-£2.00
|
-3.5
|
6
|
2
|
36
|
5.6
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+£82.00
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+227.8
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7+
|
0
|
35
|
0.0
|
-£35.00
|
-100.0
|
Official ratings (OR)
OR band
|
Wins
|
Runners
|
SR%
|
Profit/loss
|
ROI%
|
93 and below
|
3
|
110
|
2.7
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-£39.00
|
-35.5
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94-99
|
4
|
120
|
3.3
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+£7.00
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+5.8
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100 and above
|
3
|
93
|
3.2
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-£44.00
|
-47.3
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Draw
Draws
|
Wins
|
Runners
|
SR%
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1-11
|
3
|
110
|
2.7
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12-22
|
4
|
110
|
3.6
|
23+
|
3
|
103
|
2.9
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Breeding
Breeding
|
Wins
|
Runners
|
SR%
|
Profit/loss
|
ROI%
|
GB
|
6
|
140
|
4.3
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+£20.00
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+14.3
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GER
|
1
|
4
|
25.0
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+£6.00
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+150.0
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IRE
|
2
|
134
|
1.5
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-£83.00
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-61.9
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USA
|
1
|
40
|
2.5
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-£14.00
|
-35.0
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Other countries
|
0
|
5
|
0.0
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-£5.00
|
-100.0
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Class change
Class change
|
Wins
|
Runners
|
SR%
|
Profit/loss
|
ROI%
|
Down in class
|
0
|
33
|
0.0
|
-£33.00
|
-100.0
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Same class
|
8
|
213
|
3.8
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+£4.00
|
+1.9
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Up in class
|
2
|
75
|
2.7
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-£45.00
|
-60.0
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Trainer stats
Trainers: 2 wins from 8 for John Gosden.
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General stats
Headgear (visor, cheekpieces, blinkers, etc): 2 wins from 56.
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Claiming jockeys: 2 wins from 49.
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Recent win: 7 of the last 10 winners had won at least once in their last three starts from 149 runners. Backing all qualifiers would have produced a profit of £25.00 (ROI +16.8%).
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Handicap wins: Horses that had not won a handicap previously have provided 0 winners 53.
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Course winners: Horses that have previously won at the course have provided just 1 winner from 55.
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Conclusion – A race that averages 32 runners is going to be tough to unravel and whatever happens the trends can only be used to create a shortlist of candidates. A good starting point looks to be ignoring runners that raced in a non handicap LTO. They have had 0 winners in the last 10 years and they have made up 22% of the total runners. It also looks worth avoiding horses that have failed to win a handicap as well. From a positive perspective, horses that were priced between 9/1 and 20/1 LTO have a good record. They have provided 70% of the winners from only 37% of the total runners. There seems no significant age bias although 7yos+ are probably worth avoiding (0 wins and only 3 placed runners from 36). There has been little too in the draw.
Best Wishes
Dave
www.HorseRaceReport.co.uk