Haydock 10 year trends – Saturday
1.45 Haydock – Champion Hurdle Trial (Grade 2) – 2m
POSITIVE TRENDS
| Market: 7 of the last 10 winners have come from the top two in the betting. |
| Price: 9 of the last 10 winners were priced 7/1 or shorter. |
| Market LTO: 8 of the last 10 winners were in the top three in the betting LTO. |
| Position LTO: 8 of the last 10 winners finished in the first three LTO. |
| Course LTO: All of the last 10 winners raced at a Grade 1 track LTO. |
| Class LTO: 4 of the last 10 winners raced in a Grade 1 event LTO from just 11 qualifiers. Backing them all would have produced a profit of £9.00 (ROI +81.8%). |
NEGATIVE TRENDS
| Price: Horses priced 14/1 or bigger have provided 0 winners from 22 (only 3 have placed). |
| Running style: No runner has managed to make all the running. |
GENERAL STATS
| Favourites: There have been 4 winning favourites from 10 qualifiers showing a loss of £1.20 (ROI -12%). |
| Age: 4 year olds have produced 0 winners from 1 qualifier (SR 0%); 5 year olds have produced 2 winners from 5 qualifiers (SR 40%); 6 year olds have produced 3 winners from 15 qualifiers (SR 20%); 7 year olds have produced 1 winner from 12 qualifiers (SR 8.3%); 8 year olds have provided 1 winner from 9 qualifiers (SR 11.1%), 9 & 10 year olds have provided 3 winners from 14 qualifiers (21.4%); 11 year olds plus have provided 0 winners from 7 (SR 0%). |
| Breeding: French breds have provided 4 winners from 16 (SR 25%); British breds have provided 3 winners from 21 (SR 14.3%), Irish breds have provided 3 winners from 25 (SR 12%). |
| Trainers: No trainer has managed to win the race more than once. |
Trends analysis: The market is a decent guide with 90% of the winners priced 7/1 or shorter. A run at a Grade 1 track LTO has been key with all 10 winners sharing that stat. Horses that finished in the first three LTO are worth close scrutiny as are those that were in the top three in the betting on the most recent start. In terms of age there are no clear patterns.
3.30 Haydock – Peter Marsh Chase (Grade 2 Limited handicap) – 3m
POSITIVE TRENDS
| Market: Third to fifth in the betting market have provided 7 winners from 33 qualifiers for a profit of £45.00 (ROI +136.4%). |
| Price: 7 of the last 10 winners were priced between 4/1 and 8/1. |
| Recent wins: All of the last 10 winners had won at least once in their last five starts. |
| Days since last run: 8 of the last 10 winners had raced within the last month. |
| Course winners: 5 of the last 10 winners had previously won at Haydock. |
| LTO course: 8 of the last 10 winners raced LTO at either Haydock or Wetherby. Backing all runners would have produced 8 winners from 28 for a profit of £52.75 (ROI +188.4%). |
| Running style: 5 of the last 10 winners have led early and made most or all of the running. |
| Trainers: Venetia Williams has saddled 2 winners and a third from 5 runners. Sue Smith has saddled two winners and 2 placed from 7. |
NEGATIVE TRENDS
| Favourites: There has been 1 winning favourite from 10 qualifiers showing a loss of £6.75 (ROI -67.5%). |
| Breeding: French breds have a poor record in the race with just 1 success from 24 runners for a loss of £17.00 (ROI -70.8%). |
GENERAL STATS
| Age: 6 year olds have produced 0 winners from 1 qualifier (SR 0%); 7 year olds have produced 0 winners from 12 qualifiers (SR 0%); 8 year olds have produced 4 winners from 22 qualifiers (SR 18.2%); 9 year olds have produced 2 winners from 24 qualifiers (SR 8.3%); 10 year olds have produced 3 wins from 17 qualifiers (SR 17.6%); 11 year olds plus have produced 1 win from 13 qualifiers (SR 7.7%). |
Trends analysis: The best starting point is to look for horses that have won at least once in their last five starts as they have provided all of the last 10 winners. In terms of price, the most successful ‘bracket’ has been between 4/1 and 8/1. Two other strong positives are horses that raced at either Haydock or Wetherby last time out, and those that have raced within the month. From a negative perspective, it seems best to avoid horses that are French bred and favourites have also struggled in recent years.
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Dave Renham is a uk Horse Racing Researcher
For more info Click Here ==> Horse Racing Statistics
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