HAYDOCK (SATURDAY) -10 YEAR BIG RACE TRENDS
The trends and statistics are based on the last 10 years. All profits and losses are quoted using £1 win stakes. ROI stands for return on investment; LTO stands for last time out; SR stands for strike rate.
2.30 Silver Bowl – 1 mile handicap (3yo, class 2) – Haydock
POSITIVE TRENDS
| Favourites (inc. joints): 4 wins from 11 for a profit of £3.33 (ROI +30.3%). |
| Market: All of the last 10 races have been won by horses from the top 3 of the betting. |
| Price: All of the last 10 winners were priced 6/1 or shorter. |
| Position LTO: 7 of the last 15 winners finished 1st or 2nd LTO. |
| Career starts: Horses that had raced just 3 times previously in their careers have won 6 of the last 10 races from only 25 runners. |
| Trainers: Sir Michael Stoute and Gerald Butler have saddled 2 winners each. |
NEGATIVE TRENDS
| Price: Horses priced 13/2 or bigger have produced 0 wins from 117 runners. |
| Days since last run: Horses that have been off the track for 2 weeks or less have provided just 2 winners from 49 for a loss of £37.50 (ROI -76.5%). |
| Beaten distance LTO: Horses that were beaten 4 or more lengths LTO have provided just 2 winners from 53 for a loss of £44.17 (ROI -83.3%). |
| Career starts: Horses that have raced 5 times or more in their careers have won just 2 races from 94 qualifiers for a loss of £84.67 (ROI -90.1%). |
GENERAL STATS
| Sex of horse: Male runners have provided 9 winners from 123 (SR 7.3%); female runners have provided 1 winner from 17 (SR 5.9%). |
| Trends analysis: It has been best to focus on the top 3 of the betting which is surprising given the fact that this is a handicap and that the average number of runners has been 14. A decent run LTO is a plus, but a very recent run (within 2 weeks) is not. Finally lightly raced horses that have run 3 times in their careers have an excellent record – 60% of winners from just 18% of the total number of runners. |
3.00 Temple Stakes – 5f (3yo+, Group 2) – Haydock
POSITIVE TRENDS
| Favourites (inc. joints): 4 wins from 14 for a small profit of £1.08 (ROI +7.7%). |
| Market: 8 of the last 10 winners came from the top 4 in the betting. |
| Recent wins: 9 of the last 10 winners had won at least once in their last four starts. |
| Price: 8 of the last 10 winners have been priced 15/2 or shorter. |
| Course LTO: Horses that raced at Newmarket LTO have provided 5 of the last 10 winners. |
| Position LTO: Horses that finished in the first 4 LTO have provided 8 of the last 10 winners. |
NEGATIVE TRENDS
| Beaten distance LTO: Horses that were beaten 3 or more lengths LTO have provided just 1 winner from 40. |
GENERAL STATS
| Sex: Fillies and mares have won 5 races from 25 (SR 20.0%); colts and geldings have won 5 races from 78 runners (SR 6.4%). |
| Days since last run: Horses that have been off the track for 4 weeks or less have won 6 races from 70 (SR 8.6%); horses off the track for more than 4 weeks have won 4 races from 33 (SR 12.1%). |
| Age: 3 year olds have provided 2 winners from 17 (SR 11.8%); 4 year olds have provided 3 winners from 20 (SR 15.0%); 5 year olds have provided 3 winners from 26 (SR 11.5%); 6 year old plus have provided 2 winners from 40 (SR 5.0%). |
| Trends analysis: A good starting point is to look for horses that have won at least once in their last four starts. From there, preference would be for horses priced 15/2 and shorter as generally the market has held sway. Females have outperformed their male counterparts with the same number of winners from less than half of the runners. Age wise it looks best to avoid horses aged 6 or older, while horses beaten by 3 lengths or more on their most recent start also look worth swerving. |
3.30 Betfred The Bonus King Stakes – 6f (3yo+, Listed) – Haydock
POSITIVE TRENDS
| Market: 8 of the last 10 winners came from the top 4 in the betting. |
| Market LTO: Horses that were first or second favourite LTO have produced 5 winners from 26 for a profit of £10.90 (ROI +41.9%). |
| Price: 9 of the last 10 winners have been priced 11/1 or lower. |
| Career runs: 8 of the last 10 winners had raced less than 10 times in their careers. |
| Position LTO: Horses that won LTO have provided 4 winners from just 13 qualifiers for a profit of £22.00 (ROI +169.2%). |
NEGATIVE TRENDS
| Price: Horses priced 12/1 or bigger have provided just 1 winner from 59 qualifiers for a loss of £42.00 (ROI -71.2%). |
| Days since last run: Horses that have been off the track for 2 weeks or less have provided just 1 winner from 37 for a loss of £28.00 (ROI -75.7%). |
| Beaten distance LTO: Horses that were beaten 3 or more lengths LTO have provided just 3 winners from 65 for a loss of £39.10 (ROI -60.2%). |
| Race type LTO: Horses that raced in a handicap LTO have provided 0 winners from 26 (only 3 have placed). |
| Headgear: Horses wearing any type of headgear (blinkers, visor, hood, tongue tie, cheekpieces) have provided 0 winners from 18. |
GENERAL STATS
| Favourites (inc. joints): 3 wins from 10 for a small loss of £1.35 (ROI -13.5%). |
| Age: 3 year olds have provided 5 winners from 49 (SR 11.1%); 4 year olds have provided 3 winners from 32 (SR 9.4%); 5 year olds have provided 2 winners from 20 (SR 10%); 6 year old plus have provided 0 winners from 10 (SR 0%). |
| Trends analysis: The market has been a fairly good guide with only 1 winner from 59 priced 12/1 or bigger. It is also worth focusing on more lightly raced runners – 80% of the winners have had less than 10 career starts and they have provided under half of the total runners in the race. LTO winners are rare but they have won 40% of the races so any qualifier would require close scrutiny. There are plenty of negatives – horses returning to the track within 2 weeks have performed poorly as have horses with headgear and horses that ran in a handicap LTO. |
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Dave Renham is a uk Horse Racing Researcher
For more info Click Here ==> Horse Racing Statistics
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