Horse Racing Statistics For Saturday

Knowledge is power when betting on horses.

Dave Renham’s RacingTrends is a service that provides is members with a wealth of statistical horse racing information each day.

It is NOT a racing tipping service.

More so a stat provision service cutting out hours of tedious study for it’s clients and providing a wealth of useful information on a plate to them.

Clients tend to be reasonably clued up punters who appreciate both the power of stats and research and the fact that it is very boring and tedious to compile such stats each day.  Stats to hand they can focus on the more interesting aspect of race assessment to find value bets or lays of their own.

Dave produces separate messages for Flat and National Hunt Racing.

Copied below for you is todays Flat Racing message.

 

 

Flat Message for Sat 8 Dec 2012

 

COURSE FAVOURITE STATS FLAT – this is a section looking at the stats for favourites at courses in certain race types

 

Lingfield aw favourites

Race type

Wins

Bets

SR (%)

Profit

ROI (%)

Race Times

2yo maidens

98

266

36.8

-£28.02

-10.5

12.05

3yo+/4yo+ handicaps

362

1369

26.4

-£55.15

-4.0

12.40, 1.10,

2.50, 3.25

3yo+ maidens

63

153

41.2

-£10.30

-6.7

2.15

 

 

FAVOURITE STATS – this is a section looking at the stats for favourites certain race types. These race types occur less often so the course favourite stats for such races would have fairly small samples – hence they have been grouped together to give you an overview.

 

Race type

Wins

Bets

SR

Profit

ROI

Race Times

2yo nurseries

249

922

27

-£62.25

-6.8

Ling 11.35

3yo+/4yo+ sellers

214

574

37.3

+£26.22

4.6

Ling 1.40

 

 

DRAW SECTION – the stats are collated from studying 10+ runner handicaps. Each race is split into three – a top third of the draw, a middle third of the draw and a bottom third of the draw.

 

Course & distance (time)

Bottom third win %

Middle third win%

Top third win%

Lingfield aw 7f (12.40)

37

33

30

 

POSITIVE STATS – (TRAINER / SIRE / DRAW)

Please note – some are price** or going* dependent

 

12.05 Lingfield – Consign **: J Noseda – Lingfield aw; male aged 2 or 3yo; must be favourite; SR 56% ROI +30% (win & pl 76%)

 

12.05 Lingfield – Hurry Home Poppa **: Richarrd Kingscote riding in aw maidens for Tom Dascombe; must be top 3 in betting; Oct-Dec; SR 48%; ROI +62% (win & pl 80%)

1.40    Lingfield – Dark Lane: P Evans – class 6 sellers aged 4 and older SR 29% ROI +66% (win & pl 51%)

 

NEGATIVE STATS – Please note – some are price** or going* dependent

 

12.50 Lingfield – Kaylee: Poor Jockey Stat – 7lb claimers riding 2 and 3yos ALL RACES; SR 6% ROI -48% (win & pl 19%)

 

1.40    Lingfield – The Dancing Lord: Poor Jockey Stat – 7lb claimers riding 2 and 3yos ALL RACES; SR 6% ROI -48% (win & pl 19%)

 

POOR VALUE LAST TIME OUT WINNER – The idea is to find horses that won LTO that perform poorly in comparison to all LTO winners. The stats for all LTO winners in Flat races the strike rate (SR) is 16.2% and losses are -16.7%. These are my benchmarks.

 

None

 

PACE INFORMATION

 

Course

Leaders % (win)

Prominent / chased leaders % (win)

Hold up / behind % (win)

Lingfield aw 7f handicap (12.40)

1.1

1.4

0.7

Lingfield aw 1m handicap (2.50, 3.25)

0.9

1.2

0.9

 

Horses mentioned in 2 or more sections – none

 

RECENT TRAINER FORM – FLAT (last 14 days exc. Friday) – in strike rate order

 

Name

Wins

Runs

Strike rate (%)

Placed

Win & Placed

Win & Placed %

Engagements

James Given

1

2

50.0

0

1

50.0

Ling 12.40

David Elsworth

2

5

40.0

1

3

60.0

Ling 12.05

Jamie Osborne

5

14

35.7

4

9

64.3

Ling 1.40

Derek Haydn Jones

1

3

33.3

0

1

33.3

Ling 12.40, Ling 1.40, Ling 2.50

Jeremy Noseda

1

3

33.3

0

1

33.3

Ling 12.05

Robert Mills

1

4

25.0

1

2

50.0

Ling 11.35

J S Moore

3

13

23.1

2

5

38.5

Ling 11.35

John Gosden

2

9

22.2

1

3

33.3

Ling 2.15

John Ryan

4

19

21.1

2

6

31.6

Ling 1.10, Ling 3.25

Lisa Williamson

1

5

20.0

0

1

20.0

Ling 1.40, Ling 3.25

Pat Eddery

1

5

20.0

1

2

40.0

Ling 2.50

Pat Phelan

2

10

20.0

2

4

40.0

Ling 11.35, Ling 2.50, Ling 3.25

Stuart Williams

1

5

20.0

1

2

40.0

Ling 12.40

William Haggas

1

5

20.0

1

2

40.0

Ling 12.05

Kevin Ryan

2

12

16.7

3

5

41.7

Ling 12.05, Ling 12.40

Andrew Balding

3

19

15.8

2

5

26.3

Ling 11.35, Ling 2.15

Ian Williams

2

13

15.4

1

3

23.1

Ling 12.40, Ling 1.40, Ling 2.15

John Bridger

1

9

11.1

1

2

22.2

Ling 3.25

Marco Botti

2

18

11.1

3

5

27.8

Ling 11.35, Ling 12.05

Michael Attwater

1

9

11.1

1

2

22.2

Ling 1.10, Ling 2.15, Ling 3.25

David Evans

3

29

10.3

4

7

24.1

Ling 12.05, Ling 12.40, Ling 1.10, Ling 1.40, Ling 2.50

Richard Fahey

1

16

6.3

2

3

18.8

Ling 11.35, Ling 12.40

Alan McCabe

0

6

0.0

2

2

33.3

Ling 12.40, Ling 3.25

Bill Turner

0

4

0.0

0

0

0.0

Ling 1.10, Ling 1.40

Brendan Powell

0

8

0.0

1

1

12.5

Ling 12.05

David Lanigan

0

4

0.0

1

1

25.0

Ling 12.05

David Nicholls

0

8

0.0

2

2

25.0

Ling 1.40

Edward Vaughan

0

6

0.0

2

2

33.3

Ling 12.05, Ling 3.25

Mark H Tompkins

0

4

0.0

0

0

0.0

Ling 1.10

Mark Johnston

0

7

0.0

2

2

28.6

Ling 12.05, Ling 1.40

Michael Wigham

0

5

0.0

2

2

40.0

Ling 2.50

Reg Hollinshead

0

9

0.0

1

1

11.1

Ling 12.05

Richard Ford

0

4

0.0

0

0

0.0

Ling 2.50

Richard Rowe

0

4

0.0

0

0

0.0

Ling 1.10

Rod Millman

0

5

0.0

0

0

0.0

Ling 12.40

Roger Ingram

0

4

0.0

2

2

50.0

Ling 1.40, Ling 2.50

Scott Dixon

0

16

0.0

2

2

12.5

Ling 11.35

Tom Dascombe

0

7

0.0

3

3

42.9

Ling 12.05

Violet M Jordan

0

6

0.0

0

0

0.0

Ling 2.15

William Muir

0

7

0.0

2

2

28.6

Ling 11.35

 

 

COURSE TRAINER STATS FLAT

 

Lingfield trainer stats ALL RACES 2006 – Thursday (ordered by strike rate – min 3 runs or 1 win)

Trainer

Wins

Runs

Strike Rate (%)

Profit

ROI (%)

Engagements

Jeremy Noseda

61

240

25.4

-£32.39

-13.5

12.05

Tom Dascombe

37

163

22.7

+£51.73

+31.7

12.05

Ian Williams

18

81

22.2

+£23.96

+29.6

12.40, 1.40, 2.15

Sir Michael Stoute

24

111

21.6

+£18.68

+16.8

2.15

John Gosden

46

243

18.9

-£20.65

-8.5

2.15

Kevin Ryan

50

266

18.8

-£34.78

-13.1

12.05, 12.40

Mark Johnston

98

540

18.2

-£163.36

-30.3

12.05, 1.40

David Lanigan

8

45

17.8

-£13.73

-30.5

12.05

Robert Mills

7

43

16.3

-£13.99

-32.5

11.35

William Haggas

25

157

15.9

-£60.82

-38.7

12.05

Stuart Williams

34

225

15.1

-£49.73

-22.1

12.40

Andrew Balding

43

294

14.6

-£83.06

-28.3

11.35, 2.15

J S Moore

63

453

13.9

+£18.75

+4.1

11.35

Alan McCabe

35

257

13.6

+£102.23

+39.8

12.40, 3.25

Michael Bell

21

155

13.6

-£50.40

-32.5

12.05

David Nicholls

11

85

12.9

-£6.76

-8.0

1.40

Jamie Osborne

35

271

12.9

-£34.17

-12.6

1.40

Marco Botti

24

196

12.2

-£35.30

-18.0

11.35, 12.05

Michael Wigham

17

141

12.1

-£23.25

-16.5

2.50

Richard Fahey

20

179

11.2

-£50.39

-28.2

11.35, 12.40

David Elsworth

26

245

10.6

-£50.36

-20.6

12.05

Pat Eddery

9

91

9.9

-£45.46

-50.0

2.50

Pat Phelan

18

183

9.8

+£43.15

+23.6

11.35, 2.50, 3.25

Derek Haydn Jones

5

51

9.8

+£5.00

+9.8

12.40, 1.40, 2.50

David Evans

53

549

9.7

-£180.77

-32.9

12.05, 12.40, 1.10, 1.40, 2.50

James Given

8

83

9.6

-£19.83

-23.9

12.40

Reg Hollinshead

2

21

9.5

-£3.00

-14.3

12.05

Bill Turner

18

198

9.1

-£55.80

-28.2

1.10, 1.40

Michael Attwater

27

300

9.0

-£17.45

-5.8

1.10, 2.15, 3.25

William Muir

24

276

8.7

-£171.25

-62.0

11.35

John Ryan

10

115

8.7

+£6.75

+5.9

1.10, 3.25

Scott Dixon

2

24

8.3

+£2.00

+8.3

11.35

Roger Ingram

12

160

7.5

-£93.46

-58.4

1.40, 2.50

John E Long

12

165

7.3

-£23.17

-14.0

3.25

Mark H Tompkins

9

128

7.0

-£31.50

-24.6

1.10

Edward Vaughan

7

105

6.7

-£60.89

-58.0

12.05, 3.25

Brendan Powell

17

272

6.3

-£109.00

-40.1

12.05

Lisa Williamson

1

16

6.3

+£10.00

+62.5

1.40, 3.25

Zoe Davison

5

94

5.3

-£26.50

-28.2

3.25

John Bridger

19

370

5.1

-£165.63

-44.8

3.25

Lydia Richards

2

40

5.0

-£2.50

-6.3

1.10

Rod Millman

6

125

4.8

-£81.50

-65.2

12.40

James Evans

1

36

2.8

-£30.50

-84.7

1.10

Richard Rowe

1

39

2.6

-£31.50

-80.8

1.10

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