Racing Tip For Newcastle

Over to Guy from the Mathematician Betting Site for today’s free horse racing tip

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N e w c a s t l e  3.05

For Live Odds See

http://mathematician-betting.bestbetting.com/horse-racing/2012-07-28/newcastle/15-05/betting/

* The Beeswing is a 7f Handicap for 0-91 rated horses
* The Draw may well play a big part in this race
* Since 2011 there are 17 handicaps here with 9 + runners
* Horses drawn 1-2 had a 0-30 record
* Horses drawn 1-2-3 had a 1-46 record
* The winners had the following stall numbers
* 11 11 5 7 13 11 10 7 13 13 13 10 6 3 12 4 8
* I think you want a high draw based on handicaps here
* ROKER PARK – I dont like his draw in stall 1
* ROKER PARK is an exposed 7yo from a 6f handicap
* Similar horses had a dissapointing 4-145 record
* All 4 winners had 6 or more runs that year
* ROKER PARK only has 5 runs this year
* Only 1 carried more than 9st as well
* I wouldnt hang him for that profile but its not strong
* Certainly not strong enough to ignore his draw
* POLISH WORLD is an exposed 8 year old
* He comes from 7f and has no form beyond Class 3
* There were 3 winners like that but not like him
* None were beaten more than 4 lengths last time
* POLISH WORLD was beaten over 9 lengths
* That makes him unsafe and I have other issues
* This is a career high mark and he is 0-9 in this Class
* As he is Drawn 2 he has a lot to prove
* Newcastle have had 44 of these 7f races in July-August
* Relevant thas at all 44 winners had 3 + runs that year
* Those with 1-2 runs that year were just 0-48
* TIGER REIGNS has to go exposed and 1 run this season
* DUBAWI SOUND also has 1 run this year absent 98 days
* I looked at 4 year olds like him
* I found a 1-23 record with 1 run this year and a break
* That winner had 9 runs and he has just four
* That winner had Listed Class and he doesnt
* DUBAWI SOUND is therefore quite unsafe
* Mentioned Newcastle had 45 of these races
* None of the 45 winners had under 5 starts like him
* DUBAWI SOUND doesnt offer me enough
* TED4S BROTHER – Unsafe profile and out of the weights
* Poor last run and not much backclass to bounce back
* NO POPPY is an exposed 4yo filly
* There were just a handful of those types winning
* None were beaten anywhere near as far as her
* She’s never won from this mark or in this class
* KING OF EDEN is 6 and won a 7f handicap last time
* I looked at exposed 6 year olds doing that
* Slightly surprised to find just a 1-35 record
* That winner had more races that season
* That winner was also a female unlike him
* She also ran within a week as well
* KING OF EDEN doesnt come out that well for me
* He’s just won off 79 and 82
* May be asking a lot for him to win off 90 today
* Especially in a Class he hasnt won in before
* STEVIE THUNDER is an exposed 7 year old
* He was beaten more than 10 lengths last time
* Looked at similar 7yo’s with 1-2-3-4 runs that year
* I found 1 similar winner to STEVIE THUNDER
* That horse had 9st 6lbs some 8lbs less
* STEVIE THUNDER has only got an average profile
* He hasnt won from this rating before either

S h o r t l i s t

* FATHSTA won a claimer recently
* I cant match him exactly from a Claimer as a 7yo
* Prepared to forgive him that as he does have positives
* Fit and running well and he has dropped in the weights
* FATHSTA I would see as a neutral profile
* I would worry about this stiff track suiting him

* AL MUHEER – Lots to like and a pleasing profile
* He may be a 7yo but he can win from this mark
* Hard to catch right he must be kept on side

Selection

AL MUHEER 8/1

Win Bet

Newmarket 3.20 – Unusual race but I dont like the favourite
Newmarket 3.20 – PRICELESS JEWEL is up in trip from 6f -7f
Newmarket 3.20 – None did that without 7 runs and 4 that year
Newmarket 3.20 – PRICELESS JEWEL has 4 and 2 this year
Newmarket 3.20 – I would oppose her

Ascot 3.25 – MAUREEN is the clear statistical choice

7/1 widely available but a bit more on Betfair

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