Royal Acot 10 year trends Tuesday

Tuesday – Royal Ascot 10 year trends

Last 10 seasons; N.B. Excluding York 2005

2.30 Ascot – Queen Anne Stakes (1m – Group 1) 4yo+ POSITIVE TRENDS

Market: 8 wins from 10 for horses 2nd to 4th in the betting market.
Price: 9 of the last 10 winners have been priced 13/2 or shorter.
Trainers: 3 wins for Sir Michael Stoute and Saeed Bin Suroor. 2 wins for Aidan O’Brien.

NEGATIVE TRENDS

Favourites (inc. joints): There has been just 1 winning favourite from 11 for a loss of £8.63 (ROI -78.4%).
Price: 0 wins from 52 for horses priced 14/1 or bigger.
Market: Horses 5th or bigger in the betting market have provided just 1 winner from 64 for a loss of £51.00 (ROI -79.7%).
Breeding: British bred runners have provided just 2 winners from 46 runners for a loss of £32.00 (ROI -69.6%).

GENERAL TRENDS

Sex: Just 11 females have lined up with 1 successful (Goldikova last year).
Age: 4yos have won 7 races from 59 runners (SR 11.9%); 5yos have won 3 races from 26 runners (SR 11.5%); 6yos+ have won 0 from 18 (SR 0%).
Trends Summary: Not the strongest trends race, but the race is usually won by more fancied runners despite the poor record of favourites. The race has been dominated by the big trainers most notably Bin Suroor and Stoute.

3.05 Ascot – King’s Stand Stakes (5f – Group 1) 3yo+ POSITIVE TRENDS

Market: The top 6 in the betting have provided 7 of the last 10 winners.
Price: 4 of the last 10 winners have been priced between 16/1 and 25/1.
Position LTO: 6 of the last 10 winners won LTO (2 other winners were 2nd LTO).
Breeding: Australian bred runners have won 4 races from just 11 qualifiers for a profit of £30.75 (ROI +279.6%).
Running style: 4 of the last 10 winners lead early or disputed the lead early which is worth noting considering for in running punters.

NEGATIVE TRENDS

Breeding: Just 1 win for British bred runners from 66 for a loss of £49.00 (ROI -74.27%).
Price: 0 wins from 73 for horses priced 33/1 or bigger.

GENERAL TRENDS

Favourites: There have been 2 winning favourites from 10 for a loss of £2.25 (ROI -22.5%).
Sex: Male runners have produced 7 winners from 145 runners (SR 4.8%); female runners have provided 3 winners from 42 (SR 7.1%).
Age: 3yos have won 2 races from 40 runners (SR 5%); 4yos have won 1 from 43 runners (SR 2.3%); 5yos have won 4 from 42 runners (SR 9.5%); 6yos+ have won 3 from 62 (SR 4.8%).
Trends Summary: Australian runners have an excellent record in this race, while British bred runners do not. Horses priced 33/1 or bigger have a poor record, but there have been 4 winners between 16/1 and 25/1 so you have to be flexible in terms of price. LTO winners have a good record, while female runners deserve respect. In terms of age 5yos have done best but it is unclear whether this is a strong pattern.

3.45 Ascot – St James’ Palace Stakes (1 mile – Group 1) 3yo POSITIVE TRENDS

Favourites (inc. joints): There have been 6 winning favourites from 11 for a profit of £5.45 (ROI +49.6%).
Market: The top 4 in the betting have provided 9 of the last 10 winners.
Price: All of the last 10 winners have been priced 8/1 or shorter.
Position LTO: 5 of the last 10 winners won LTO.
Last race: 8 of the last 10 winners raced in the Irish Guineas LTO.
Trainers: Aidan O’ Brien has had 6 winners and 5 placed runners from 24 runners. Indeed he had the 1-2-3 in 2007 and the winner in 2008 and 2009.

NEGATIVE TRENDS

Breeding: Just 1 win for British bred runners from 27 for a loss of £18.00 (ROI -66.7%).
Price: 0 wins from 59 for horses priced 17/2 or bigger.
Trends Summary: The market is an excellent guide with 6 winning favourites and all winners priced 8/1 or shorter. A run in the Irish Guineas is a big pointer, and runners from Aidan O’ Brien’s stable are definitely worth close examination thanks to his excellent record. Indeed he is 4 wins from 4 with favourites.

4.25 Ascot – Coventry Stakes (6 furlongs – Group 2) 2yo POSITIVE TRENDS

Favourites (inc. joints): 6 wins from 12 for a profit of £11.88 (ROI +99%).
Price: 9 of the last 10 winners were single figure prices.
Position LTO: All of the last 10 winners won LTO.
Breeding: US breds are worth noting with 4 winners in the last 10 races. They have provided 40% of the winners from only 23% of the total runners.
Trainers: 3 wins for Aidan O’Brien and 2 for Richard Hannon.

NEGATIVE TRENDS

Price: There has been just 1 win from 120 qualifiers for horses priced 10/1 or bigger. Backing all qualifiers would have yielded a loss of £99.00 (ROI – 82.5%).
Maidens: 31 maidens have lined up – all have been beaten.
Trends Summary: This race was upgraded to Group 2 status in 2004, and essentially this is still the target for many of the best 2yo sprinters. Hence, long term trends are likely to be worth following. One very strong stat worth noting is that all of the last 10 winners won LTO. Indeed that stretches back to 20 of the last 21. It is also a market driven race with favourites having an excellent record, and all of the 10 winners being priced in single figures (19 of the last 21).

www.RacingTrends.co.uk

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Dave Renham is a uk Horse Racing Researcher
For more info Click Here ==> Horse Racing Statistics
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