Saturday 25th Feb 10 year trends

4.10 Kempton – Pendil Novices Chase– 2m 4f 110yds (Grade 2)

POSITIVE TRENDS

Favourites (inc. joints): There have been 5 winning favourites from 11.
Market: The top three in the betting has provided 9 of the last 10 winners.
Course LTO: 5 of the 10 winners raced at Sandown LTO from just 10 qualifiers.
Price: Horses priced 11/2 or shorter have produced 9 of the last 10 winners.
Market LTO: Horses that were in the top two in the betting LTO have provided 8 of the last 10 winners.
Position LTO: Horses that finished 1st LTO have provided 7 of the 10 winners.
Trainers: Paul Nicholls has won the race 5 times in the last 10 seasons including the 5 of the last 6 renewals. Venetia Williams has had just 2 runners and both have won.
Breeding: French and German breds have combined to win 6 races from 17 qualifiers producing a profit of £15.17 (ROI +89.2%).
Front runners: 4 wins for horses taking an early lead in the race.

NEGATIVE TRENDS

Price: Horses priced 6/1 or bigger have provided just 1 winner from 26 runners for a loss of £13.00 (ROI -50%).
Position LTO: Horses that finished 3rd or worse LTO have provided just 1 winner from 23 for a loss of £19.50 (ROI -84.8%).

GENERAL STATS

Age: 5 year olds have produced 1 winner from 6 qualifiers (SR 16.7%); 6 year olds

have produced 3 winners from 9 qualifiers (SR 33.3%); 7 year olds have produced

5 winners from 18 qualifiers (SR 27.8%); 8 year olds have produced 1 winner from

13 qualifiers (SR 7.7%); 9 year olds plus have produced 0 winners from 8 qualifiers

(SR 0%).

Trends analysis: This has been a market dominated race so far with favourites having a decent record, and the top three in the betting providing all bar one of the winners. Horses that ran at Sandown LTO deserve close scrutiny as they have provided 50% of the winners from just 18% of the total runners. LTO winners have shown a profit, while Paul Nicholls has an exceptional record in recent times. In terms of age, horses aged 6 and 7 look the ones to concentrate on.

3.25 Newcastle – Eider Handicap Chase – 4m1f (Class 2)

POSITIVE TRENDS

Market: Second and third favourites have provided 5 of the last 10 winners for a profit of £17.00 (ROI +73.9%).
Price: Horses priced 5/1 to 11/1 have provided 7 of the last 10 winners.
Days since last run: 6 of the last 10 winners had been off the track for 17 days or less.
Weight rank: 9 of the last 10 winners have come from the top 5 in the weights.

NEGATIVE TRENDS

Favourites (inc. joints): There has been 1 winning favourite from 11 for a loss of £6.00 (ROI -54.6%).
Weight: Horses carrying 10st 10lb or less have provided 1 winner from 82 for a loss of £73.00 (ROI -89%).
Weight rank: Horses 6th in the weights or lower have provided 1 winner from 98 for a loss of £89.00 (ROI -90.8%).
Price: Horses priced 20/1 or bigger have provided 1 winner from 58 qualifiers.
Breeding: British bred runners have provided just 2 winners from 50.
Position LTO: Horses that failed to finish LTO have provided 1 winner from 26.

GENERAL STATS

Age: 6 and 7 year olds have produced 0 winners from 12 qualifiers (SR 0%); 8 year

olds have produced 3 winners from 25 qualifiers (SR 12%); 9 year olds have

produced 4 winners from 39 qualifiers (SR 10.3%); 10 year olds have produced 2

winners from 44 qualifiers (SR 4.6%); 11 year olds plus have produced 1 winner

from 34 (SR 2.9%).

Trends analysis: The strongest bias in this race seems to be in terms of weight carried. The top 5 in the weights have an excellent record, especially when you consider the average field size has been over 14. Favourites have struggled and the value has been with those priced 5/1 to 11/1. Age wise it looks that 8 and 9 year olds have an edge.

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Dave Renham is a uk Horse Racing Researcher
For more info Click Here ==> Horse Racing Statistics
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