see  here.

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How you oppose it is up to you. It may be a straight lay or you may wish to back another horse you fancy in the race with the knowledge that there are strong arguments against this one here.

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Wolverhampton 3.15

Going with a draw statistic today as it affects the
second favourite in the race who now looks badly
drawn. This statistic also supports the match bet
today as I am opposing the badly drawn favourite.

* I looked at all 9f handicaps since the start of 2011
* The Draw shows a small bias against low numbers
* There were 56 handicaps here with 9+runners
* Horses drawn 1 and 2 had a 2-106 record
* Only 1 of the last 53 races went to horses drawn 1 or 2
* Son Vida is opposed here.

Layable on Betfair at about 9/2

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N e w b u r y  3.10

PLANET OF SOUND 12/1

Each Way

Hennessy Gold Cup  N e w b u r y  3.10

A Fascinating race and I have shortlisted 4 horses.
I like Wymott and Wayward Prince. It would not
surprise me to see Beshabar won as well. Its really
a race where most horses have a good narative so
it’s down to which is the most convincing. I think
the most persuasive was PLANET OF SOUND. I am
having 75% of my stake to win 25% to place.

5/1 Aiteen Thirtythree, 6/1 Great Endeavour
13/2 Wymott, 7/1 Michel Le Bon, 8/1 Wayward Prince
12/1 Beshabar, 12/1 Planet Of Sound, 14/1 Sarando
16/1 The Giant Bolster, 20/1 Carruthers, 20/1 Muirhead
25/1 Neptune Collonges, 25/1 Tullamore Dew
33/1 Billie Magern, 40/1 Blazing Bailey, 40/1 Fair Along
40/1 Qhilimar, 50/1 Balthazar King.

* The Hennessy is a Handicap Chase over 3m2f110y
* There are 19 renewals since 1992
* Horses with 6-18 career starts dominate the hennessy
* Recent winners had the following National Hunt runs

* 12-16-23-10-12-11-6- 6-18-18-16-12-7-14-5-17-16
* Horses with few runs in Handicaps dominate
* The winners had the following runs in Handicaps
* 0-21-0-1-0-1-1-7-1-1-1-1-7-2-7-1-1-11-3-1-1-8
* The last few winners had the following Chase races
* 3-12-29-5-4-4-6-4-11-6-5-6-7-11-5-13-7
* Finishing 1st-2nd last time is very helpfull
* 16 of the last 19 winners were 1st or 2nd last time
* Since 1992 horses aged 10 or more are 0-47 in this race
* The last winner aged 10 was back in 1981
* Before that the previous one was in 1967
* NEPTUNE COLLONGES is therefore opposed
* He is a 10yo seasonal debutant hard to like
* BLAZING BAILEY is not the right type
* BALTHAZAR KING is there to make up the numbers
* QHILIMAR is the wrong type to win a Hennessy
* FAIR ALONG has not had the right preparation
* BILLIE MAGERN looks hard to fancy
* He doesnt like big fields and is not progressing
* THE GIANT BOLSTER has jumping concerns
* He has failed to complete in his last 3 Chases
* He has only jumped 8 fences in these 3 races
* He carries too much risk with his jumping
* SARANDO is 6 and has run this year
* His profile is fine I just wonder if he has the class
* He has only got Grade 2 form
* He started 50/1 in that Class of race as well
* There isnt a strong statistical argument against him
* I just think there may be clasier horses
* Some of them have lighter weights than him
* TULLAMORE DEW fell last time
* Not the ideal preparation and he isnt for me
* You have to bank on him improving a lot
* The trip may bring that out but its not certain
* He was Novice Handicapping at the last Cheltenham
* He has a lot to prove in terms of class
* MUIRHEAD has been summer jumping in Ireland
* Thats not the profile of a Hennessy winner
* He is more exposed than almost all past winners
* He has been busier this season than any of them
* MUIRHEAD just looks too untypical to me
* CARRUTHERS was beaten 20 lengths in this last year
* He had a good profile then but still failed
* He likes a small field and wont get that here
* He has already had more chase runs than is ideal
* He is too riSky in a big field handicap like this
* AITEEN THIRTY THREE has 1 run this year
* All winners doing that came from a Handicap
* AITEEN THIRTY THREE does not do that
* Horses that come from Non handicaps like him were 0-25
* He also comes from a 2m 5f race
* Only 1 winner had 1 run this year from 21f or shorter
* That was One Man who had less weight and was younger
* I wasn’t impressed with his profile
* AITEEN THIRTY THREE doesnt offer enough
* MICHEL LE BON has not run in 730 days
* No past winner had anything like that absence
* No Seasonal debutant won without Grade 1 form
* MICHEL LE BON hasnt even got that
* His biggest problem is having just 1 Chase start
* Last years winner only had 3 and he was inexperienced
* Surely he shouldn’t be able to win with 1 chase start
* GREAT ENDEAVOUR won the Paddy Power last time
* Personally I don’t like that as a trial race
* There is precious little recovery time from a hard race
* The double has been done by Celestial Gold (2004)
* The previous winner of that race was in 1980
* That said it has been done so I will overlook that
* When Celestial Gold won he had less weight
* Celestial Gold was less exposed as well
* Celestial Gold also had more backclass as well
* This is GREAT ENDEAVOUR’s 7th Handicap Chase
* He is now 22lbs higher than when winning the first
* Thats a worry especially with no Grade 1-2 form
* I Looked at past winners with No Grade 1-2 form
* Only 1 past winner won when as well raced as him
* That was 40/1 shock Sibton Abbey in 1991
* GREAT ENDEAVOUR doesn’t feel completely safe
* He meets horses with more backclass yet more scope

S h o r t l i s t

* BESHABAR is a 9yo seasonal debutant
* The only 9yo debutant to win was Denman in 2009
* BESHABAR wont find it easy trying to repeat that
* He does have a lot less weight to carry than Denman
* His Chasing profile is more than adequate
* In his favour is low mileage
* His Scottish National win was impressive
* He only had 4 chase runs before that
* He has only been raised 4lbs in the weights
* I think thats generous and he could go well
* BESHABAR would be a Positive
* I could have taken a chance with him
* My only reservations is will he need the run ?

* WAYWARD PRINCE comes out very well
* He is a seasonal debutant 7 year old
* He has Grade 1 form and between 9 and 18 runs
* Horses with that profile won 4 past renewals
* The 2001 2005 2007 2010 winners shared that
* The 4 winners had 18 11 11 12 career starts
* WAYWARD PRINCE  fits that nicely with 10 starts
* These 4 winners had 6-4-5-3 previous Chase runs
* WAYWARD PRINCE matches that with 5 Chase runs
* There is one difference with his profile
* No winners came from a Novice race last year
* I’d ignore that as he had Grade 1 form before that
* Few Hennessy winners have headgear
* WAYWARD PRINCE is certainly shortlistable

* WYMOTT pulled up in the Sun Alliance last March
* So did last years winner of this race so it doesnt matter
* He was diagnosed with a small crack in a bone
* WYMOTT has a very encouraging profile
* He is a seasonal debutant 7 year old
* He has Grade 1 form and between 9 and 18 runs
* Horses with that profile won 4 past renewals
* The 2001 2005 2007 2010 winners shared that
* The 4 winners had 18 11 11 12 career starts
* WYMOTT fits that nicely with 11 starts
* These 4 winners had 6-4-5-3 previous Chase runs
* WYMOTT again matches that with 4 Chase runs
* I think he has a good profile

S e l e c t i o n

* PLANET OF SOUND is a 9yo
* He is the second best horse in the weights
* I think he can outclass these horses
* We had a 9yo seasonal debutant win in 2009
* This horse has got speed and class
* Enough Speed to Place in the 2m Arkle in 2009
* Enough Class to win a Grade 1 over 3m 1f
* Clearly he likes good to fast ground
* He has a good record when fresh
* I think he is best on Galloping tracks with long run ins
* His dislikes Sharp Tracks like Aintree and Haydock
* His wins come at Exeter Punchestown Chepstow Newbury
* His record at Newbury is 2 W W W
* PLANET OF SOUND has fallen once in 12 chase runs
* That was in the Grade 1 Betfair Chase in Feb 2010
* He then flopped at the 2010 Cheltenham Festival
* He wasnt fit that day and had a horrible preparation
* He also showed signs of having a breathing problem
* He then won the Punchestown Guinness Gold Cup
* That was a Grade 1 race and he beat a high class field
* War of Attrition – Cooldine – Denman all behind him
* His next run was his seasonal debut in 2010-2011
* No shame in coming 3rd in a Grade 1
* He didnt like the ground or the track
* The Gold Cup winner Imperial Commander beat him
* There was no shame in that run
* His last run 10 months ago he flopped in the King George
* He Choked that day but has since had an operation
* This could be the time to catch him
* His best track and his Handicap debut
* He has to prove he stays but I think he will
* He wasnt stopping over 3m 1f in Ireland
* I believe he is the Class horse today with a chance
* The second season Chasers are not strong this year
* PLANET OF SOUND has to be worth a bet

12 /1 at Bet365 who pay 5 places
Also 12/1 at BoyleSports – S James – Ladbrokes – VC

latest odds available at http://mathematician-betting.bestbetting.com/horse-racing/2011-11-26/newbury/15-10/betting/

NB Betfred have an offer on this race that may interest some of you.
If your horses finishes 2nd to the SP favourite you get your win stake back
See Hennessy Offer
It is also a Bet365 4/1 + offer race  ( free bet on next channel 4 race if your bet wins at 4/1 or over )

.

Just part of a much larger message from him today.

Fingers crossed for another decent priced winner from him again today.

To visit his site click here ==> Horse Racing Tips

Lingfield 3.55

Low grade handicap. MISS BOUNTY is not a
statistical pick. I’m not convinced any of the
runners are statistical choices. I like her odds.
All year I have been banging on about her sire
not getting winners over 12f and more and It
interests me she drops in trip now to what is
her best distance as I explain below. She also
has good excuses for her last two runs and it
is likely she was not fit. She is the forgotten
horse in this race and 10/1 seems a big price.
I am going to leave her as a Mention for the
following reason. She does not have the usual
headgear on. She hasn’t yet won without any
headgear yet. She won last March when it was
applied after several runs without any and I
don’t know how significant that might be. It
is a Gap in my Knowledge or at least I don’t
feel I can overlook it with confidence. That
stops me betting her hard. I might well have
a saver on Beggers Belief but I do prefer the
mare MISS BOUNTY at the price and have
plans to bet her. Happy to ignore the issues
with headgear for my bet but not happy to
take the chance for any stronger selection.

10/1 at Betfred – Ladbrokes – Coral – Stan James

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S a n d o w n  3.30

3/1 Hold On Julio, 7/2 Very Stylish, 6/1 Earth Planet
7/1 Moleskin, 8/1 Craiglands, 8/1 Pak Jack, 8/1 Soixante
9/1 Appleaday, 50/1 Local Present.

This is an interesting 3m Handicap Chase. I looked at
all similar races at this time of year. They all have to
be considered expect maybe LOCAL PRESENT. I am
going to oppose VERY STYLISH. He won on his chase
debut but that was a long time ago now and I wasnt too
impressed. I’m in no hurry to bet PAK JACK as he is a
11 year old seasonal debutant with topweight and has a
career high mark and poor win record. I cant rule out
several of these but two horses did stand out here.

HOLD ON JULIO

Initially I was going to make him a negative as there
are no Handicap Chases won by horses coming from a
Maiden hunter Chase. Then I can across this statistic.

* Horses coming from all Hunter Chases
* Having Under 9 career starts
* First Time Out
* There were 9 horses with that profile
* These horses had a very interesting 5-9 record

It strikes me the only reason to run a Hunter Chaser
like HOLD ON JULIO in a race like this is because he
is very well handicapped. He has won point to points
as well as his Hunter Chase win and Alan King has not
bought him for nothing. I have to see him in a different
light despite the fact the brilliant 5-9 record of Hunter
Chasers doesnt include winners from maiden hunters.

EARTH PLANET

There is a very good record in this race for horses
aged 9 that have recent runs especially over 3m or
more. Having a recent run has been a big help here.
When you consider the Whip Rules now that might
even be more of a help to EARTH PLANET. After
all apart from the “no hoper” All seven of his main
rivals are seasonal debutants. EARTH PLANET has
a considerable fitness advantage with 4 races so Far
this season. He has just placed at Cheltenham in a
similar Class race.  Yes he is frustrating and hard to
win with but he consistently runs well and has form
on right handed tracks and has shown he has enough
ability to win this race. Given how helpful its been
to have a recent run in this race I have to fancy him.

Selection

I do like two here a lot. I feel I have to have a saver
on HOLD ON JULIO around 3/1 but I think there is
a very good chance EARTH PLANET’s fitness may
get him home today and I like him each way.

EARTH PLANET 7/1 Each Way
HOLD ON JULIO 3/1 + Saver Bet

Best odds at time of free blog post

Earth Planet 7/1 Ladbrokes -  Tote

Hold On Julio VC – Tote – Betfred

To visit Guy’s site click here ==> horse racing tips

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N e w m a r k e t   3.55

3/1 Tactfully, 9/2 Abishena, 9/2 Oojooba
7/1 Gifted Girl, 12/1 Graser 14/1 Na Zdorovie
Coquet, 16/1 Dare To Dream 20/1 Esentepe
25/1 Pretty Pebble, 33/1 Amthal.

The Montrose Fillies Stakes is a 2yo Listed race for
fillies over a Mile. It has an 11 year history. Always
a hard race to find the winner and so many shocks in
this race in the past show that. The History of this
suggests that the winner will have the following profile.

* She will have 1-2-3-4 career starts
* She will not have ran in the past fortnight
* She will not have come from a Nursery
* She will not come from a 6f race
* She will never have ran in Group class before
* She will have finished at least 2nd before in a race
* Horses winning 7f maidens have a 1-15 record
* None managed that with 1 career start
* I dont want horses from maidens with 3 runs
* No horse from maidens were absent 80 + days
* The bad news is this leads to a large shortlist
* The Good news is one horse does stand out

S h o r t l i s t

* COQUET – Shortlistable on my angles
* AMTHAL – Outside chance in an outsiders race 40/1
* GRASER – Has a reasonable profile
* OOJOOBA – Profile fine but I dont like the draw
* This years winning stalls over 8f here with 12 + runners
* 13 7 11 11 5 8 10 16 1 9
* The horse winning from Stall 1 was….Frankel !!!
* OOJOOBA may not find Stall 1 any help at all
* TACTFULLY won an 8f maiden on her only start
* Horses with 1 run finishing 1st or 2nd in an 8f maiden
* Running 2-6 weeks ago
* Horses with this profile had a 3-7 record
* Very interesting that 2 of these came from the same race
* The 2007 and 2008 winner won a Nottingham maiden
* TACTFULLY won the same race and has the same profile

Selection – TACTFULLY

7/2 at Tote VC Betfred Bet365

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N e w m a r k e t 5.00

(8) GOLDEN DESERT 18/1

Each Way Bet

* Do not mix the name up with another horse
* Another horse in the same race has a similar name.
* The bet is Number 8 on the card Golden Desert

I’ve gone with GOLDEN DESERT and He is one of
those bets that you know is unsafe but his price does
compensate for that. He is knocking in a bit aged 7
and hasn’t won for 2 years and it’s not hard to see a
couple of younger horses beating him. That said it’s
a race with a lot of good negatives. There are some
very good reasons why he might win this race. I see
promise in his last run where I flagged him up before
the race at 20/1. He ran well last time and although
I wouldnt have tipped him at 8/1 the 18/1 is far too
big as is the 20/1 on Betfair so going with him today.

N e w m a r k e t 5.00

Betfred The Bonus King Handicap
(CLASS 2) (3yo+ 0-100) 7f

4/1 Asraab, 13/2 White Frost, 8/1 Bonnie Brae
8/1 Golden Delicious, 10/1 Lutine Bell
12/1 Axiom, 12/1 Mr David, 14/1 Elna Bright
14/1 Gallagher, 16/1 Citrus Star, 16/1 Mia4s Boy
16/1 Woodcote Place, 20/1 Golden Desert
25/1 Space Station, 25/1 Striking Spirit.

* This is a 0-98 handicap over 7 furlongs
* Newmarket has had 22 similar races at this time of year
* There has been 68 similar races at other tracks
* I think the Draw Shows you want a Middle Draw
* I would be worried about horses drawn very low
* I would also be worried about horses drawn very high
* I predict the winner will be drawn between 3 and 14
* STRIKING SPIRIT is not well drawn in Stall 16
* I didnt like him profile at all exposed from 6f
* Not without a recent race
* STRIKING SPIRIT is statistically weak
* ASRAAB could have been better drawn in stall 15
* ASRAAB only has 1 run this season
* Horses doing that in 68 races had a 1-19 record
* That winner was a completely different type
* ASRAAB has a long absence as well and only 3 runs
* Its an Unsafe profile and not a great draw
* I’d be a Fool to discount him from Godolphins
* As an option in this race he doesn’t really appeal
* WHITE FROST has a bad draw in Stall 1
* I dont like his profile from a 3yo handicap either
* There were 4 winners doing this
* Those with Under 7 runs that season were 0-48
* WHITE FROST has just 4 runs and I see him as weak
* WOODCOTE PLACE has a bad draw in Stall 14
* I looked at Exposed horss in 68 similar races
* Those with 1-2-3-4-5 runs that year were 0-43
* WOODCOTE PLACE has only 4 runs and is 8 years old
* No exposed horse aged 6 won without at least 6 runs
* WOODCOTE PLACE has to be underraced this year
* MIA4S BOY also looks underraced this year
* He is 7 and has had just 4 runs this season
* ELNA BRIGHT won a 5f handicap last time
* More than happy to oppose him doing that
* Especially as an exposed 6 year old and he looks wrong
* AXIOM is 7 and only 2 winners were as old
* I looked at all exposed horss aged 6 or more
* Those without Pattern Class form won just 5 races
* Most of these had more runs that season than him
* None of these carried more than 9st weight as well
* AXIOM has a difficult task from Topweight
* GALLAGHER is very well treated these days
* There is a doubt about what he can achieve these days
* Recently changed stables he ran ok last time
* He is underraced this year though
* Exposed horses from 6f or shorter struggled
* Those that won were rare and all had far more runs
* GALLAGHER falls short for me
* Fillies dont have a great record in these races
* None were absent as long as BONNIE BRAE
* BONNIE BRAE looks wrong as a filly absent 63 days
* Winning last time with that absence worries me
* BONNIE BRAE doesnt offer me enough
* GOLDEN DELICIOUS is a 3yo filly
* These 3yo fillies have a poor record and he isnt for me
* SPACE STATION is an exposed 5yo
* Statistically he is generally fine with no weak areas
* The only question remains has he got the class
* There are some factors that worry me
* SPACE STATION has a career high mark
* He has only ever won in a Class 4 race before
* He needs to produce a career best by some way
* All his wins come on sharp tracks as well
* MR DAVID is an unexposed 4yo from 7f
* All 4 year olds with 9-20 runs doing this were 3-83
* Those without a run in 2 weeks were just 1-44
* That winner had much less weight than he does
* None had raced in Group class before like him
* I Dont fancy him but there are better negatives
* Wouldnt be a complete shock but not for me

S h o r t l i s t

* CITRUS STAR is an unexposed 4yo from 7f
* All 4 year olds with 9-20 runs doing this were 3-83
* Those with 13-20 runs like him were only 1-59
* All 3 of these unexposed winners were different
* Troubles me he only has 5 runs that season
* I’d like more and I cant match him exactly to a winner
* CITRUS STAR is respected and shortlistable
* I did struggle to find enough I liked

* LUTINE BELL is an exposed 4yo from 7f
* He has Class 2 form and no higher
* I found 4 winners that had that profile in 68 races
* LUTINE BELL was 2nd last time in a tough race
* That was a career best performance
* He has to repeat that today but should go well
* A couple of things worry me
* I think he has plenty of weight for his profile
* There is a chance his last run was a falsely run race
* The 1-2-3 all came from behind that day
* They may have benefitted from the pace of the race
* I wasnt overkeen he has just 1 race in the last 59 days
* Shortlistable but not completely convinced

* GOLDEN DESERT is a worrying aged at 7
* That said we had 2 horses winning aged 7
* Both were very well raced that year like him
* Both ran well last time in 7f handicaps like him
* I flagged him up as very interesting last time out
* Go back a year and he was 2nd here in a similar race
* That run would win this and he is 9lbs lower today

SELECTION – GOLDEN DESERT 18/1 Eachway at BoyleSports & William Hill

See full market odds at http://mathematician-betting.bestbetting.com/horse-racing/2011-09-24/newmarket/17-00/betting/

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For More info click here — Horse Racing Tips UK

We had a nice winner on the free horse betting blog
last Saturday with an easy win for Baltimore Clipper
advised here at 9/1

Anyhow onto today’s racing tip.

N e w m a r k e t   2.50

5/1 Roger Sez, 11/2 Piranha, 6/1 Mention
7/1 Imelda Mayhem, 7/1 Nearly A Gift, 15/2 Ballyea
8/1 Correct, 9/1 My Lucky Liz, 16/1 Judas Jo
20/1 Redair, 25/1 Princess Banu.

This is a Fillies Nursery over 6f. There are only 3 of these races in July and August all being the renewals of this race so nothing much to help us with here. I will list my trends from these three races. I can tell you now that No horses pass all 6 or my trends so we wont have an ideal type here.

* All 3 winners had 4-5-6 career starts
* All 3 winners ran within 2 weeks
* All 3 winners had form in Class 2 and no higher
* All 3 winners were beaten last time out
* All 3 winners ran within 10 lengths of the winner last time
* None of the 3 winners came from Handicaps

MENTION passes all stats except one and I find it interesting he comes from Newbury and the 5f Super Sprint. Two of the  Three past winners did exactly the same. I think she looks a well treated horse off 80. She will appreciate the 6f. She was drawn in the wrong place at Newbury and was murdered later on in the race when badly hampered and that cost her several places. I think she has an outstanding chance of winning this. My danger would be MY LUCKY LIZ

Selection – MENTION

7/1 at Coral Bet365 William Hill

===============================

This was provided by Guy Ward aka The Mathematician

To visit Guy’s site click here ==>  Free Horse Racing Tips

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S a l i s b u r y   8.10

5/2 Undulant Way, 6/1 Reset City, 8/1 Albeed
8/1 Issabella Gem, 8/1 Sunny Future, 8/1 Tropical Bachelor
10/1 Baltimore Clipper, 10/1 Drawn Gold, 10/1 Now What
14/1 Ugalla.

* This is a 14f Handicap for 0-76 rated horses
* There are 116 similar races at this time of year
* Horses with 1 run this year struggled in 116 races
* No Mares have won with 1 run this year
* RESET CITY has that against her and isnt for me
* She is gambled and from a significant stable
* She could easily defy the stats and win this race
* I see a better option and I find her too riSky
* UGALLA also fails that and looks vulnerable
* ALBEED is a 4yo filly well beaten last time out
* Fillies aged 4 beaten 10 + lengths last time were 2-34
* None of these had 13 or more runs as she does
* ALBEED has a shaky profile
* TROPICAL BACHELOR has a chance but not for me
* Not when exposed and just two runs this season
* NOW WHAT is a 4yo filly absent over a month
* Those with 7 or more runs and that profile were 1-13
* That winner had more backclass than she does
* She isnt a negative but she is not for me
* UNDULANT WAY is a 3yo filly
* There are 3yo fillies winning these 14f races
* None however came from 11f or shorter
* UNDULANT WAY is not a negative
* She does have to do something no other 3yo filly did
* ISSABELLA GEM is a 4yo filly with 9 + runs
* Those coming from 14f or shorter won 5 races
* Only 1 had 1-2-3 runs that season like her
* She is not a negative but I wasnt too impressed
* She has the least experienced jockey in the race
* DRAWN GOLD is an exposed 7yo
* He only has 3 runs this season
* He lacks enough backclass to be a safe choice
* SUNNY FUTURE – Respectable and shortlistable

S e l e c t i o n

BALTIMORE CLIPPER only has a 0-73 class field
to beat. I think there is a good chance he could beat
this average Class 5 field. He won a better class race
as a 3yo. He was no worldbeater but he showed he is
at least good enough to win a race like this. He had
some problems last year with Ulcers but that’s now
behind him. I noted Paul Cole saying earlier in the
year that he had improved a lot over the winter. I
watched him enter and pull out of a few races with
the ground going against him. When he did race in
June had badly needed his seasonal debut. He then
went to Salisbury and ran much better. That was a
0-85 handicap much better than this and he wasnt
fit that had and was only beaten 4 lengths. He had
his 3rd run at Sandown. Starting 25/1 in a Classier
race than this he fiished 4th. He wasnt unlucky in
this race but he was hampered and ran on strongly
doing his best work late. He has improved on each
of his runs this year. Last time out swings it for me.
He started 18/1 on a Grade 1 track at Newbury. It
was a better class of race. KEYS won the race and
came out yesterday to win again. It was absolutely
no disgrace to finish 4th that day. He has ran well
enough to win this race on his last 3 starts. This is
a decent drop in class today. The ground looks ok
and has escaped the rain. He is a good age and has
a recent run. Given his price I feel he is a good bet.

Selection

BALTIMORE CLIPPER       Each Way

9/1 at many bookmakers including
BoyleSports , VC , William Hill , Sky, Bet365

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——————————————————————————————–

The Derby Epson 4.00

9/4 Carlton House, 4/1 Recital, 11/2 Pour Moi, 13/2 Seville
10/1 Native Khan, 16/1 Ocean War, 16/1 Vadamar
25/1 Masked Marvel, 25/1 Treasure Beach, Memphis Tennessee
100/1 Pisco Sour, Marhaba Malyoon, 500/1 Castlemorris King.

My quick thoughts on the Derby.

The Derby always gets confusing as you read and hear positives and negatives for everything.
Throw in the injury scare for the favourite – Two Aidan O’Brien horses hard to split and a
French horse thats carrying serious confidence.
Just for the record there is a reasonably strong draw bias here based on the following.

* Epsom has 25 races since 2005
* Thats 25 races with between 10 and 14 runners like today
* Horses drawn 1-2-3 had a poor 1-70 record
* Horses drawn 13 or more were 0-18
* Horses drawn 4-12 are the best places
* Horses drawn 5-11 come out best
* Horses drawn 5-11 won 22 of the 25 races

He may win and I was impressed with his win at York but I am opposing
CARLTON HOUSE on stamina doubts.
I dont want a horse from a Mile like NATIVE KHAN especially without a
good draw. RECITAL throws up a dilemma with his ungainly
action but he will be a different horse today. I think this will come down to
RECITAL or POUR MOI one being the saver.

Selection – RECITAL 11/2 Ladbrokes Blue Square Bet365
Saver – POUR MOI  you can get 13/2 Coral and VC

Nb Betfred are running a very good concession on this race
of offering losing stakes back if Carlton House wins the Derby.
That’s a reasonably generous perk and may swing me to stake there
possibly during the shows as their early odds are a bit tight on the above.

A note to each way backers amongst you Bet365 and William Hill are offering 1/3 for a place.