Football-Bets Televised Game Of The Weekend

We are going to swerve the ‘Televised Game Of The Weekend’ this weekend as the two live games in the Premier league Newcastle v Arsenal and Tottenham v Sunderland look very one sided and don’t offer many betting avenues for us.

These games will see Arsenal and Tottenham battling for the final Champions league spot against two teams that will be glad when the season is over after very disappointing campaigns.

So that will be it for these Televised game previews for this season.

They have provided a decent net profit over all so far with the Best Bets indicating a slightly higher ROI than backing eveything.

I will be back in August with further Televised Match previews when the new Premier League  season starts again.

My full member service will however continue over most of the summer period
looking at other leagues such as the American MLS.

All The Best, Phil

Premier League Over Under Betting Tip

Premier League Over Under Betting Tip


Below is one of several tips for today from Louise ( who has a degree in mathematics )

Louise’s service focusses only on Over Under Soccer Betting

One thing I like about it is the fact that she lists her own calculated ” True Odds “.

If you would like to test here service on a cheap trial basis see the page below

which is a secret deal page set up for Sports Betting Blog readers

Special Deal

See page below for a cheap test of the Soccer Tip service.



Saturday 12th January

League – Premier League
Kick Off Time – 15:00
Teams & Selection – Norwich v Newcastle OVER 2.5
Prices Available – 1.85 Pinnacle – 1.82 Victor Chandler

Stake – 1.5pts
After the number crunching on this game I reckon the price to be around 1.75




Hennessy Gold Cup

Betting advice for the Hennessy Gold Cup from



It’s a fascinating Hennessy Day and a Newbury and
Towcester dominated message for full members.
I thought Newcastle had a poor card and I wasn’t prepared
to play the cat and mousegame about whether it is on or off.
I have done most of the races at Newbury and Towcester for full members
so hoping for a good day.

For full memebrs I have four highlighted bets today.
Here on the free blog I will post just one of them

I knew a few weeks ago that BOBS WORTH would be the
strongest profile in the Hennessy and that took the shine
off the race as he’s favourite. My angles push me his way.

I will go with BOBS WORTH in the big race. My stats
suggest he is the one but he doesn’t really need to be
there today.

Hennessy Gold Cup Newbury  3.10

I sent the Hennessy Analysis earlier in the week. My angles
clearly point to BOBS WORTH being the likely winner. That
will depend on several things. He has to handle the biggest
field of chasers he has yet encountered and I have to get it right with the negatives.
For an example the age statistics  have to be right about TIDAL BAY who is
2 years olds than all past winners. His chance increases for me as this is a far from
vintage Hennessy but his age puts me off.
There’s a good case for HOLD ON JULIO but I have opposed him  as his sires
record shows none have won over this far and 46 of the Sires 47 winners
came in at least 3 Grades lower and none have won in this class before.
I dont know it that is a very skillfull thing to do or a complete mistake but
he is not my choice becuase of it.
My statistics suggest that THE PACKAGE should have competed in a higher
grade after so many runs if he was to have the class.
I have to be right about several more as well.
BOBS WORTH has the strongest profile and because of that is my selection.

* FRISCO DEPOT – Not quite right but has positives
* FIRST LIEUTENANT – Wont surprise me if he is the one
* BOBS WORTH is the selection


#10 Win BOBS WORTH 5/1 at various including Paddy Power Bet365

If betting each way on this race today note that Sky Bet365 and Paddy Power
are all offering 5 places instead of the usual four.

Hennessy Gold Cup Statistics

* Horses with 6-18 career starts do best
* Recent winners had the following National Hunt runs
* 20-12-16-23-10-12-11-6- 6-18-18-16-12-7-14-5-17-16
* Horses with few runs in Handicaps dominate
* The winners had the following runs in Handicaps
* 5-0-21-0-1-0-1-1-7-1-1-1-1-7-2-7-1-1-11-3-1-1-8
* The last few winners had the following Chase races
* 14-3-12-29-5-4-4-6-4-11-6-5-6-7-11-5-13-7
* Finishing 1st-2nd last time is very helpfull
* 16 of the last 20 winners were 1st or 2nd last time
* Two of the four that were not finished 3rd
* I looked at horses that had raced that season
* None of the winners came from a Non Handicap Graded race
* No Seasonal debutant won without Grade 1 form
* Second-season chasers have the best recent record
* They have won 9 of the last 13 renewals
* Since 1992 Seasonal debutants aged 9 or more are 1-44
* The only 9yo debutant to win was Denman in 2009
* Few hennessy winners have headgear
* I Looked at past winners with No Grade 1 or Grade 2 form
* Those with 9 or more career starts doing that were 1-50
* That was 40/1 shock Sibton Abbey in 1991
* No past winner came from a Hurdles race
* No past winner came from a Grade 2 Chase first time out
* As a rule 6 year old debutants with Grade 1 form are fine



Draw Bias Stats

Draw Bias Stats

The draw can play a very important role in flat racing.

There are proven biases to certain stall positions over certain course and distances.

Dave Renham is renouned as on of the uk’s leading experts on Draw Bias.

One small element of his daily messages to clients at his Racing Trends service is a section detailing any significant draw bias for that day’s racing.

I have copied today’s Draw Bias section for you below.

If you are the sort who likes to think about their racing and who prefers to make your own mind up as to what to back or lay instead of just following a tipster you may find the RacingTrends service are great daily resource.

Packed full of well researched stats and info it can only help your decission making.

Contact me here at sports betting blog and I should be able to arrange a short free test period trial for you.



DRAW SECTION – the stats are collated from studying 10+ runner handicaps. Each race is split into three – a top third of the draw, a middle third of the draw and a bottom third of the draw.

Course & distance (time) Bottom third win % Middle third win% Top third win%
Bath 5f (1.45) 10 0 90
Bath 5f161yds (5.40) 65 4 30
Chester 5f (1.40) 82 9 9
Chester 7f122yds (2.10, 5.35) 21 63 16
Doncaster 1m (1.50, 4.50) 27 36 36
Kempton aw 5f (5.50) 44 41 15
Kempton aw 1m (7.20) 37 33 29
Kempton aw 7f (9.20) 41 34 25
Newcastle 1m (2.00, 2.35) 38 31 31
Newcastle 6f (3.10) 19 30 52
Newcastle 5f (5.25) 37 21 42

Bath 5f (1.45) higher draws do best here as low draws tend to go off too quickly. There are only 10 races in this sample so the bias is not as strong as it looks!

Bath 5f161yds (5.40) high draws used to dominate, but it seems lower drawn runners go off at a more steady pace these days hence being more able to take advantage of the bend.

Chester 5f (1.40) low draws have a very significant edge over this C&D. The lower the draw the better.

Chester 7f122yds (2.10, 5.35) low draws are perceived to have an edge over this extended 7f, but the figures suggest this is not the case. The value lies with middle drawn horses.

Kempton aw 5f (5.50) low draws have the edge here with higher draws struggling.

Kempton aw 7f (9.20) high draws struggle a little over this distance. Low draws tend to have an advantage when the field size hits 13 runners or more.

Newcastle 6f (3.10) high draws do best and occasionally completely dominate races.

Newcastle 5f (5.25) low draws tend to have the edge, especially in bigger fields, or when the stalls are placed far side (low). However, in fields of 10-12 with the stalls placed stands side, high draws can have an edge.





William Hill Offer Season Long Betting For Fans Of Every Team

While most fans of Premier League teams may not realistically be able to back their side to win the league or even avoid relegation, William Hill are ensuring that they will have the option to back their side to improve upon last season’s performances. Not only can they back their side to finish higher than last season, they can also back the side to finish lower, or in the same position.

“As a fan of Fulham for example, you are not realistically going to be able to back your side to win the league while at the same time the price that you will get for your side to stay up is incredibly short,” said William Hill spokesman Joe Crilly. “We are enabling every fan to have a positive (as well as a negative and a neutral) bet on their side depending on how they think the season will pan out.”

How will your side fare in 2012/13?

11/12 Position Team Higher Same Lower
1 Man City N/A 13/10 4/7
2 Man Utd 11/5 13/8 11/8
3 Arsenal 9/2 5/2 8/15
4 Tottenham 10/3 4/1 4/9
5 Newcastle 7/1 5/1 1/5
6 Chelsea 1/10 8/1 8/1
7 Everton 12/5 7/5 7/5
8 Liverpool 2/9 7/2 10/1
9 Fulham 16/5 4/1 4/9
10 West Brom 5/1 11/2 1/4
11 Swansea 4/1 7/2 2/5
12 Norwich 6/1 5/2 4/9
13 Sunderland 4/9 10/3 4/1
14 Stoke 8/11 3/1 9/4
15 Wigan 11/5 16/5 8/11
16 Aston Villa 8/15 16/5 16/5
17 QPR 1/4 9/2 6/1

Joe Crilly
Press Officer

Twitter: @footy_joe

T: 0208 918 3746
M: 07850 518 164

Carroll 6/4 For Another Poor Campaign

With rumours persisting about whether or not England striker Andy Carroll has a future at Liverpool under Brendan Rodgers, William Hill have quoted the big striker to scorer fewer than nine goals in the Premier League this term. West Ham are rumoured to have agreed a loan deal but Newcastle could also be in the running. He is 7/4 to score between nine and 13 goals and 7/4 for more than 13.

Andy Carroll English Premier League Goals 2012/13: 6/4 Under 9, 7/4 9-13, 7/4 Over 13

Further Information
Mark Young
PR Assistant, William Hill
Phone: 02089183981

Carroll Odds On For First Time To Leave Liverpool

Liverpool have been fielding bids for Andy Carroll from all over the UK as it was revealed that Newcastle had joined Fulham and West Ham in the race for the striker and William Hill make the Magpies 7/4 favourites to be Carroll’s next club. West Ham and Fulham are 11/4 and 6/1 respectively. After initially making clear their wish to sign him, news reports linking AC Milan with a move for Carroll have died down and they are now offered at 10/1 to be his next club.

“Carroll certainly has a long list of suitors but with Liverpool reportedly only willing to get rid of him permanently, it remains to be seen as to whether any side can afford him,” said Hill’s spokesman Joe Crilly.

William Hill think an exit for the Liverpool targetman is ever more likely, with Hills making him 5/6 to have left the club by the start of the season.

Andy Carroll next club: 7/4 Newcastle; 11/4 West Ham; 6/1 Fulham; 6/1 Aston Villa; 10/1 AC Milan; 16/1 Malaga; 20/1 PSG; 20/1 Arsenal; 20/1 Tottenham; 25/1 Chelsea; 25/1 Reading; 25/1 Ajax; 25/1 Stoke; 25/1 Norwich; 25/1 Manchester City; 25/1 Manchester United; 33/1 Bayern Munich; 40/1 Inter Milan; 40/1 Everton; 40/1 Sunderland; 66/1Real Madrid; 66/1 Barcelona…others on request
*loan deals count

Andy Carroll at Liverpool on the first day of 2012/13 season: 5/6 yes; 5/6 no

Joe Crilly
Press Officer

Twitter: @footy_joe

T: 0208 918 3746
M: 07850 518 164

Racing Tip For Newcastle

Over to Guy from the Mathematician Betting Site for today’s free horse racing tip


N e w c a s t l e  3.05

For Live Odds See

* The Beeswing is a 7f Handicap for 0-91 rated horses
* The Draw may well play a big part in this race
* Since 2011 there are 17 handicaps here with 9 + runners
* Horses drawn 1-2 had a 0-30 record
* Horses drawn 1-2-3 had a 1-46 record
* The winners had the following stall numbers
* 11 11 5 7 13 11 10 7 13 13 13 10 6 3 12 4 8
* I think you want a high draw based on handicaps here
* ROKER PARK – I dont like his draw in stall 1
* ROKER PARK is an exposed 7yo from a 6f handicap
* Similar horses had a dissapointing 4-145 record
* All 4 winners had 6 or more runs that year
* ROKER PARK only has 5 runs this year
* Only 1 carried more than 9st as well
* I wouldnt hang him for that profile but its not strong
* Certainly not strong enough to ignore his draw
* POLISH WORLD is an exposed 8 year old
* He comes from 7f and has no form beyond Class 3
* There were 3 winners like that but not like him
* None were beaten more than 4 lengths last time
* POLISH WORLD was beaten over 9 lengths
* That makes him unsafe and I have other issues
* This is a career high mark and he is 0-9 in this Class
* As he is Drawn 2 he has a lot to prove
* Newcastle have had 44 of these 7f races in July-August
* Relevant thas at all 44 winners had 3 + runs that year
* Those with 1-2 runs that year were just 0-48
* TIGER REIGNS has to go exposed and 1 run this season
* DUBAWI SOUND also has 1 run this year absent 98 days
* I looked at 4 year olds like him
* I found a 1-23 record with 1 run this year and a break
* That winner had 9 runs and he has just four
* That winner had Listed Class and he doesnt
* DUBAWI SOUND is therefore quite unsafe
* Mentioned Newcastle had 45 of these races
* None of the 45 winners had under 5 starts like him
* DUBAWI SOUND doesnt offer me enough
* TED4S BROTHER – Unsafe profile and out of the weights
* Poor last run and not much backclass to bounce back
* NO POPPY is an exposed 4yo filly
* There were just a handful of those types winning
* None were beaten anywhere near as far as her
* She’s never won from this mark or in this class
* KING OF EDEN is 6 and won a 7f handicap last time
* I looked at exposed 6 year olds doing that
* Slightly surprised to find just a 1-35 record
* That winner had more races that season
* That winner was also a female unlike him
* She also ran within a week as well
* KING OF EDEN doesnt come out that well for me
* He’s just won off 79 and 82
* May be asking a lot for him to win off 90 today
* Especially in a Class he hasnt won in before
* STEVIE THUNDER is an exposed 7 year old
* He was beaten more than 10 lengths last time
* Looked at similar 7yo’s with 1-2-3-4 runs that year
* I found 1 similar winner to STEVIE THUNDER
* That horse had 9st 6lbs some 8lbs less
* STEVIE THUNDER has only got an average profile
* He hasnt won from this rating before either

S h o r t l i s t

* FATHSTA won a claimer recently
* I cant match him exactly from a Claimer as a 7yo
* Prepared to forgive him that as he does have positives
* Fit and running well and he has dropped in the weights
* FATHSTA I would see as a neutral profile
* I would worry about this stiff track suiting him

* AL MUHEER – Lots to like and a pleasing profile
* He may be a 7yo but he can win from this mark
* Hard to catch right he must be kept on side



Win Bet

Newmarket 3.20 – Unusual race but I dont like the favourite
Newmarket 3.20 – PRICELESS JEWEL is up in trip from 6f -7f
Newmarket 3.20 – None did that without 7 runs and 4 that year
Newmarket 3.20 – PRICELESS JEWEL has 4 and 2 this year
Newmarket 3.20 – I would oppose her

Ascot 3.25 – MAUREEN is the clear statistical choice

7/1 widely available but a bit more on Betfair

William Hill Suspend Next Liverpool Manager After Brendan Backed To 1/20!

As of 4.25 pm today William Hill have suspended their next Liverpool manager betting after the market was deemed to no longer be viable. “Even at 1/20 punters were looking to back Brendan Rodgers, which suggests that an announcement is imminent!” said Hill’s spokesman Ru8pert Adams.

Liverpool Premiership Finishing Positions 2012-2013: 5/2 1st to 4th, 7/4 5th or 6th, 2/1 7th to 10th, 6/1 11th to 14th, 40/1 15th to 17th, 80/1 18th to 20th

Liverpool Trophies 2012- 13: 1/7 None, 4/1 One, 14/1 Two, 33/1 Three, 250/1 Four

William Hill Premiership 2012-13: 11/8 Man City, 5/2 Man Utd, 9/2 Chelsea, 6/1 Arsenal, 25/1 Tottenham, 33/1 Liverpool, 125/1 Newcastle, 250/1 Everton, 750/1 Fulham, 1000/1 Bar

Rupert Adams
Media Relations

T: 020 8918 3858
M: 0784 1011 584
William Hill, Greenside House, 50 Station Road,
Wood Green, London, N22 7TP.

Betting On Barton Ban


William Hill have opened a book on the length of Joey Barton’s ban – and make him 5/6 to serve over 7.5 games, and 5/6 under 7.5 games. Barton is 4/6 NOT to be at QPR on day one of next season, 11/10 still to be there. ‘Barton has entered uncharted waters with his behaviour and his ban could set new records’ said Hill’s spokesman Graham Sharpe.

MANCHESTER CITY are 11/8 favourites with Hills to win the Premier League title again next season – and quote them at 200/1 to win the Quadruple.

TO WIN NEXT SEASON’S PREM TITLE….11/8 Man C; 11/4 Man U; 4/1 Chelsea; 6/1 Arsenal; 25/1 Spurs; 33/1 Liverpool; 125/1 Newcastle. Others on request.

BOLTON are 10/1 to win the Championship; 5/2 to be promoted, 20/1 to go down again next season.

FURTHER INFO…Graham Sharpe…..0780 3233702

twitter- @sharpeangle