This fairly detailed assessment of today’s Wokingham handicap
was provided via the free service at Dave Renham’s Horse Race Report site.
Wokingham Handicap Stats
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Favourites: 3 wins from 10 for a profit of £5.75 (ROI +57.5%).
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Top three in betting: 6 wins for the top three in the betting.
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Top six in betting: 7 wins for the top six in the betting (6 wins for top 4).
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Price: Horses priced 6/1 or less have provided 4 winners from just 12 runners for a profit of £10.75 (ROI +89.6%).
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Days since last run: A real spread of wins and no clear angles.
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Position LTO: 3 wins for horses that won LTO (from 45 runners).
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Position LTO: 7 wins for horses that finished in the first three LTO from 99 runners.
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Position LTO: All 11 winners finished in the first six LTO.
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LTO favourites: 4 wins for horses that were favourite LTO (from 41 runners).
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LTO Top three in betting: 6 wins for horses from the top three in the betting LTO (from 87 runners).
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LTO Price: Horses priced 4/1 or shorter LTO have provided 5 of the last 10 winners from only 37 runners.
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Distance beaten LTO: Horses beaten over 5 lengths LTO have provided 0 winners from 86.
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Age
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Wins
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Runners
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SR%
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Profit/loss
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ROI%
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3
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0
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2
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0.0
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-£2.00
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-100.0
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4
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6
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85
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7.1
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-£11.25
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-13.2
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5
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3
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62
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4.8
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-£34.50
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-55.6
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6
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2
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60
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3.3
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-£15.00
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-25.0
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7+
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0
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53
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0.0
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-£53.00
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-100.0
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OR band
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Wins
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Runners
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SR%
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Profit/loss
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ROI%
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96 and below
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4
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76
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5.3
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-£33.50
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-44.1
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97-101
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4
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94
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4.3
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-£46.25
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-49.2
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102 and above
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3
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92
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3.3
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-£36.00
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-39.1
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Draws
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Wins
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Runners
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SR%
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1-9
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6
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81
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7.4
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11-18
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2
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81
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2.5
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19+
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2
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83
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2.4
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Breeding
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Wins
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Runners
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SR%
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Profit/loss
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ROI%
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GB
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5
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124
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4.0
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-£63.25
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-51.0
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IRE
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3
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105
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2.9
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-£81.50
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-77.6
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ITY
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1
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3
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33.3
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+£31.00
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+1033.3
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USA
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2
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23
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8.7
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+£5.00
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+21.7
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Other countries
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0
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7
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0.0
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-£1.00
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-14.3
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Class change
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Wins
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Runners
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SR%
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Profit/loss
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ROI%
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Down in class
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3
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64
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4.8
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-£26.50
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-42.7
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Same class
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5
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155
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3.2
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-£76.75
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-49.5
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Up in class
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3
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41
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7.3
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-£10.50
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-25.6
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Trainers: no trainer has won the race more than once in the last 10 years.
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Headgear (visor, cheekpieces, blinkers, etc): 1 win from 57.
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Claiming jockeys: 1 win from 28.
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Recent win: 4 of the last 10 winners had won at least once in their last three starts from 102 runners. Backing all qualifiers would have produced a loss of £75.25 (ROI -73.8%).
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Handicap runs: Horses who have had 10 or less handicap runs have provided 10 winners from 119 runners (SR 8.4%); horses who have run in 11 or more handicaps have provided just 1 winner from 143 runners (SR 0.7%).
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Career runs: Horses who have raced 15 times or less in their careers have won 9 races from 88 runners (SR 10.2%); horses who have raced 16 or more times in their career have won 2 races from 174 runners (SR 1.1%).
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Wokingham Best Fit To Trends
For Current Live Odds see
http://punterprofits.bestbetting.com/horse-racing/2013-06-22/ascot/16-25/betting/all-odds
The Wokingham with it’s large field size is obviously
not the easiest race to pick the winner in.
Working through my ten year race trends however
to find which horses are the best fit to the stats
would lead me to the following two
- Duke of Firenze 8/1 generally
- Nocturn 12/1 generally
A bit higher is available on Betfair
For those of you who prefer each way note that several bookies are offering 5 places
Bet365 – Sky – BoyleSports – Paddy Power – Victor Chandler
A Little More Info Today
With regards to the Ascot 5.00 Duke of Edinburgh
http://punterprofits.bestbetting.com/horse-racing/2013-06-22/ascot/17-00/betting/all-odds
Key trends here are horses that were priced 8/1
or shorter LTO who are aged 5 or younger.
This narrows the field down by around 40%.
From there horses wearing headgear have an excellent record
and three of the initial shortlist are wearing some type of headgear:
- Ustura
- Silver Lime
- Opinion
Hence this is my best trends based shortlist for the race with Opinion having the added advantage
of being trained by Sir Michael Stoute who has an good record in the race.
Best Wishes
Dave
www.HorseRaceReport.co.uk