World Cup Ante Posts Tips Sitting Pretty

Our World Cup Ante Posts tips are sitting pretty enough as of today.

Selection	Odds	Status
World Cup Final to be Argentina and Germany	14	open
World Cup Final to be Germany and Spain	20	L
World Cup Final to be Brazil and Belgium	35	L
Romelu Lukaku to be Belgiums Top Goalscorer ( dead heat paid 16.67% odds )	0.375	W
Daniel Sturridge to be Englands Top Goalscorer (dead heat paid 50% odds )	1.5	W
Karim Benzema to be France Top Goalscorer	1.625	W
Netherlands and Colombia to qualify from their groups Double	1.3	W
Vedad Ibisevic to be Bosnia Top Goalscorer ( dead heat paid 25% odds )	1	W
Thomas Muller (Germany) to be World Cup Top Goalscorer each way	33	open
Fred (Brazil) to be World Cup Top Goalscorer each way	20	L

 

 

The worst case scenario if both the open bets lost is an 0.8 pt profit.

But of course we would be pretty hopeful of better than that.

Thomas Muller can be laid for example right now at about 7/2 ish on Betfair
in the win market.

And at about 1/50 in the place market.

As for the Argentina Germany final that is now trading at about 4/5

 

Some Quick Thoughts

 

Trading

We just run a straight forward tipping service here.

We stick up simple clear cut tips.

But clients of course are free to trade and hedge as it suits them.

Both the open bets above for example are easily traded and hedged

to produce a zero risk all upside scenario.

Our official results however will simply reflect the “all in” simple
tip approach.

 

Dead Heat Rules

It is interesting to note how often the dead heat rule came into play.

Out of four “to be top team goalscorer” bets three ended in dead heats.

The most extreme example was Lukaku who was one of six players to score

a goal for Belgium. As such the original odds were divided by six.

I guess the point of learning is to understand that certain markets are prone
to dead heats.

On others it is totally impossible to get a dead heat.

 

Be Clear What Market You Are Betting On

We are on Muller in the Top Goal Scorer market.

This is very slightly different to the Fifa Golden Boot Award.

Golden Boot will only have one winner with sub criteria

such as assists and possibly even minutes played

being used to define the single Golden Boot Winner.

Top Scorer on the other hand is all about goals scored and nothing else.

Thus if Muller scores another goal to rise to joint top on six goals

he could dead heat for us but win the golden boot due to his greater number
of assists than Rodriguez.

 

The biggest traps for this sort of thing may be

#1 Thinking you have found good odds when in fact you are looking at a market

not quite what you assumed.

#2 Backing in one market then making a later laybet in a similar but slightly
different market.

On Betfair for example you can lay either Top Scorer or Golden Boot.

Be careless and you may find that what you thought was a perfect hedge

is in fact two stakes at risk with the possibility of losses if outcomes conspire to fall into the gap you have left.