Aintree Trends and Statistics
The below comes from Dave over at Racing Trends.
Stats are based on ten years historical data.
You can read more from Dave at this link Horse Racing Blog
Saturday
1.45 John Smith’s Mersey Novices’ Hurdle 2m4f
POSITIVE TRENDS
| Market: 7 of the last 10 winners started in the first two of the betting. Second favourites have won 5 races (PROFIT of £14.08; ROI +156.4%). |
| Price: 7 of the last 10 winners were priced 9/2 or shorter. |
| Position LTO: 8 of the last 10 winners finished in the first four LTO. |
| LTO race: 5 of the last 10 winners ran in the Cheltenham Festival and all 5 had finished sixth or better. |
| Races in current season: 8 of the last 10 winners had run at least 4 times that season. |
| Trainers: Paul Nicholls has had five runners and 3 have won (1 placed). |
NEGATIVE TRENDS
| Price 20/1+: 0 wins from 44 (only 3 placed). |
| Beaten distance LTO: Horses beaten 15 or more lengths LTO have provided 0 winners from 27 runners (only 2 placed). |
GENERAL STATS
| Favourites (inc. joints): 2 wins from 11. |
| Finishing positions of favourites: 5, 2, F, 4, 3, 1/2, 5, 3, 5, 1 |
| Age: 8 of the last 10 winners were aged 5 or 6 (although they made up 66% of the runners). |
| Trends Summary: 5 and 6yos dominate the race but they do provide the majority of the runners. Second favourites have performed very well winning half the races, while a decent effort at Cheltenham LTO is another positive. Most of the winners had run at least four times that season which is a further positive to bear in mind. Paul Nicholls has a good record in the race so any runner from the stable requires close scrutiny. |
2.15 Maghull Novices’ Chase (Grade 1) 2m
POSITIVE TRENDS
| Recent form: 8 of the last 10 winners finished in the first three LTO. |
| Race LTO: 8 of the last 10 winners ran in the Arkle Chase at Cheltenham. |
| Price: All of the last 10 winners were priced 6/1 or shorter (9 winners were 4/1 or shorter). |
| Market: 9 of the last 10 winners were first or second in the betting. Second favourites have won 6 renewals (PROFIT of £12.33; ROI +112.1%). |
| Breeding: 5 of the last 10 winners were French bred (6 others were placed). |
| Trainers: Paul Nicholls has had 4 winners in the past 10 renewals (5 in last 12). |
NEGATIVE TRENDS
| Price 13/2+: 0 wins from 43 (only 4 placed). |
| Breeding: British bred runners have provided 0 winners from 16 with only 1 placed runner. |
GENERAL STATS
| Favourites (inc. joints): 3 wins, 6 seconds from 10. |
| Finishing positions of favourites: 2, 2, 3, 1, 2, 2, 1, 1, 2, 2 |
| Trends Summary: The best starting point is to look for horses that ran in the Arkle Chase LTO as they have provided 80% of the winners from around 50% of the total runners. The market has been a very strong indicator also with no winner priced over 6/1. Indeed there have been 9 winners priced 4/1 or shorter. In terms of breeding Feench breds definitely have an edge while British bred runners have struggled. Paul Nicholls has a good record in the race. |
2.50 John Smith’s Aintree Hurdle (Grade 1) 2m 4f
POSITIVE TRENDS
| Recent form: 5 of the last 10 winners finished out of the frame / fell LTO. |
| Price: All of the last 10 winners were priced 12/1 or shorter. |
| Trainers: 6 of the last 10 winners (60%) were trained in Ireland. Irish raiders have accounted for only a quarter of the total runners). |
| Jockeys: Ruby Walsh has had 3 wins from 6 rides in the race; Timmy Murphy has had 3 wins from 8. |
NEGATIVE TRENDS
| Headgear: 0 wins from 25 runners for horses with any type of headgear (blinkers, visor, cheekpieces, tongue ties). |
| Price 14/1+: 0 wins from 47 (4 placed). |
GENERAL STATS
| Favourites (inc. joints): 2 wins from 12, but 5 others have finished second. |
| Finishing positions of favourites: 2, 7, 2, 1/2, F, 2, 10, 1/2, 4, 3 |
| Breeding: Irish bred runners do have a slight edge having won 6 races (60%) from 40% of the total runners. |
| Trends Summary: Horses priced 12/1 or shorter have dominated the race while a good run LTO is not a necessity. Irish runners have an outstanding record in the race not just in the last 10 years but stretching back to the mid 70s. Irish breds perform above the norm, while horses wearing headgear have a poor record. |
3.25 John Smith’s Handicap Chase 3m 1f
POSITIVE TRENDS
| Class: 9 of the last 10 winnershad raced in Graded company in their careers. |
| Recent wins: 9 of the last 10 winners had won at least one of their last six starts. |
| Position LTO: 6 of the last 10 winners finished in the first three LTO. |
| Trainers: Jonjo O’Neill has won the race 3 times (4 if you go back an extra year); Nicky Henderson has won the race twice. |
| Running style: Hold up horses have done well in this race with 6 wins from the last 10 renewals. |
NEGATIVE TRENDS
| Course winners: Course winners are 0 from 25 with just 3 placed. |
| Career starts: Horses that had raced 25 times or more in their careers have provided just 1 win from 47 (LOSS of £41.50; ROI -88.3%). |
| LTO run: Horses that failed to finish on their previous start have provided 0 winners from 31. |
GENERAL STATS
| Favourites (inc. joints): 2 wins from 11 for a small loss. |
| Finishing positions of favourites: P, 1, 3, 5, 2, 4/P, 1, F, PU, 4 |
| Course LTO: 6 of the 10 winners ran at the Cheltenham Festival LTO from 60 runners (SR 10%); horses that did not race at the festival have provided 4 winners from 93 (SR 4.3%). |
| Trends Summary: Not the strongest races of the meeting as far as trends are concerned. It is best to focus on horses that have won at least once in their last six runs, and have run in Graded company at some point in their careers. Any horses trained by Jonjo O’Neill needs close scrutiny, while Nicky Henderson has a decent record also. In terms of negatives, avoid horses that have 25 times or more in their careers and/or any horse that failed to finish LTO. Finally, horses that ran at the Cheltenham festival have a much better chance of winning than those that did not. |
4.15 John Smith’s Grand National (handicap chase) – 4m 4f
POSITIVE TRENDS
| Price: 7 of the last 10 winners have been priced 20/1 or shorter. Hence 70% of the winners have come from 29% of the runners. |
| Winning form: All of the last 10 winners had previously won over 3 miles or further – this stat holds true right back to 1970. |
| Age: 9 and 10yos have provided 7 of the last 10 winners (70%) from just under 50% of the runners. |
| Weight: 9 of the last 10 winners carried 11st 1lb or less. |
| Breeding: 8 of the last 10 winners were Irish bred. |
NEGATIVE TRENDS
| Age: 8yo or younger have won just 1 from 96 runners. (7yos or younger are 0 from 30 and none have finished in the first four – indeed 23 have failed to complete the course). 13yo and older runners are rare but all 10 have been soundly beaten. |
| Price 40/1+: 1 win from 188 qualifiers. |
| Headgear: Horses wearing blinkers or visors have produced 1 win from 55, with 3 further finishing placed (LOSS of £47.00; ROI -85.5%). |
GENERAL STATS
| Favourites (inc. joints): 3 wins from 20. |
| Finishing positions of favourites: F/F/BD, 3, PU, 2/F/U/PU, 1, 2/3, F/PU/R, 1/6, 7, 1/4 |
| Trainers: 4 of the last 10 winners were trained in Ireland. |
| Trends Summary: Mon Mome was a shock 100/1 winner two years ago but overall big priced runners should be ignored. One stat that goes back to 1970 is concerned with the fact that all winners had won over 3 miles or further in their careers. Irish trainers deserve respect also as they have provided 40% of the winners from less than 20% of the total runners. In terms of weight, horses carrying bigger weights (11st 2lb or more) have a poor record although Don’t Push It bucked the trend last year carrying 11st 5lb to victory. In terms of age it looks best to avoid horses aged 8 or younger. |
4.55 John Smith’s Handicap Hurdle (Listed) 2m ½f
POSITIVE TRENDS
| Price: 9 of the last 10 winners were priced between 7/1 and 20/1. |
| Weight: 9 of the last 10 winners carried 10st 10lb or less. |
NEGATIVE TRENDS
| Favourites: 0 wins from 10. |
| Market: The top three in the betting have provided 0 winners. |
| Official ratings: Horses with an OR of 133 or more have provided 1 winner from 43 (LOSS of £31.00; ROI -72.1%). |
| Weights: The top seven in the weights have provided only 2 winners from 74. |
| Trainers: The Pipe stable have saddled 22 runners but 0 winners (only 3 placed). |
GENERAL STATS
| Finishing positions of favourites: 2, 15, F, 2, 13, 15, 8, PU, 18, 8 |
| Age: 6 of the last 10 winners were aged 5 or 6 (16 out of the last 20 going back a further 10 years). However, they do make up a fair proportion of the total runners. |
| Trends Summary: On the face of it there seem to be limited trends, but horses carrying 10st 10lb or less that are priced between 7/1 and 20/1 is a starting point at least. |
5.30 Champion Standard National Hunt Flat Race 2m 1f
The race was not run in 2007 so I have gone back an extra year.
POSITIVE TRENDS
| Season’s form: 8 of the last 10 winners had won at least once that season. |
| Market: 6 of the last 10 winners have been priced 25/1 or bigger. |
| Age: 6yos have a decent record with 5 wins from 38 (PROFIT of £104.25; ROI +274.3%). |
NEGATIVE TRENDS
| Market: Horses from the top 8 of the betting have won just 3 of the 10 races. |
| Age: Horses aged 4 have provided just 1 winner from 59 (LOSS £44.00; ROI -74.6%). |
GENERAL STATS
| Favourites (inc. joints): 2 wins, 3 placed from 11. |
| Finishing positions of favourites: 8, 1, 1, 14, 3, 4, 4, 3/20, 2, 19 |
| Trends Summary: With the last 5 of the last 7 winners having been priced 25/1 or bigger this is not an easy finale. 6yos have a good record having won 50% of the races from 19% of the total runners. So a big priced 6yo is probably the value call. |