Saturday – big race trends (15 years)
November handicap (3.10 Doncaster) – 1m 4f (class 2 handicap)
POSITIVE TRENDS
| Position LTO: Horses that finished in the first two LTO have provided 9 of the last 15 winners. |
| Recent win: 14 of the last 15 winners had won at least one race in their last six starts. |
| Last 3 runs: Horses that that finished in the first four on all of their last three starts have provided 7 winners from 59 qualifiers for a profit of £58.00 (ROI +98.3%). |
| Course LTO: Horses that raced at Grade 1 track last time out have provided 13 of the last 15 winners. |
NEGATIVE TRENDS
| Favourites (inc. joints): 1 win from 17 for a loss of £11.00 (ROI -64.7%). |
| Price: Horses priced 33/1 or bigger have provided 1 winner from 92. |
| Distance LTO: Horses that raced over 1m5f or more LTO have provided just 1 winner from 52 qualifiers. |
| Races this season: Horses that have raced 3 times or less during the season have provided 0 winners from 72 qualifiers. |
| Course LTO: Horses that raced at a Grade 2 track or lower LTO have provided just 2 winner from 88 qualifiers for a loss of £64.00 (ROI -72.7%). |
GENERAL STATS
| Course winners: Course winners have provided 5 winners from 57 qualifiers (SR 8.8%); non course winners have provided 10 winners from 267 (SR 3.7%). |
| Age: 3yos have provided 7 winners from 82 runners (SR 8.5%); 4yos have provided 5 winners from 113 (SR 4.4%); 5yos have provided 2 winners from 60 (SR 3.3%); 6yos+ have provided 1 winners from 69 (SR 1.4%). |
Trends analysis: Favourites have won only once but in such a competitive event with very big fields, this is perhaps not so big a surprise. 1995 saw the last successful market leader, so one could argue another one is overdue. A good starting point would be to focus on horses that have registered at least one victory in their last six runs. Horses that finished in the first two last time out are also worth noting as they have won 60% of the races between them from 35% of the total runners. Course winners tend to be better value than non course winners. In terms of age 3 year olds have the best record; meanwhile older horses (6 or older) look worth avoiding.
Badger Ales Trophy (3.20 Wincanton) – Listed chase 3m 1½ f
POSITIVE TRENDS
| Favourites (inc. joints): 5 wins from 16 for a profit of £1.13 (ROI +7.1%). |
| Position LTO: 10 of the last 15 winners finished first or second LTO (6 won). |
| Price: Horses priced 12/1 or bigger have provided 7 winners from 69 runners for a profit of £47.00 (ROI +68.1%). |
| Weight rank: The bottom 4 in the weights (inc. joints) have provided 10 winners from 64 runners for a profit of £57.63 (ROI +90%). |
| Trainers: Paul Nicholls has saddled 5 winners from 20 runners for a profit of £40.25 (ROI +201.3%). |
| Jockeys: Timmy Murphy has ridden the winner on 4 occasions from 8 rides. |
NEGATIVE TRENDS
| Price: Horses priced 4/1 to 15/2 have produced just 1 winner from 31 qualifiers for a loss of £26.00 (ROI -83.9%). |
| Weight rank: The top 4 in the weights (inc. joint 4th) have provided 4 winners from 65 qualifiers for a loss of £49.50 (ROI -76.2%). |
| Class droppers: Horses dropping in class have a poor record with just 2 wins from 34. |
GENERAL STATS
| Age: 6yos have provided 3 winners from 17 runners (SR 17.6%); 7yos have provided 3 winners from 36 (SR 8.3%), 8yos have provided 3 winners from 38 (SR 7.9%); 9yos have provided 4 winners from 31 (SR 12.9%); 10yos+ have provided 2 winners from 26 (SR 7.7%). |
| Course winners: Course winners have provided 4 winners from 42 qualifiers (SR 9.5%); non course winners who have provided 11 winners from 106 qualifiers (SR 10.4%). |
Trends analysis: An interesting set of statistics where favourites have a profitable record, but so do outsiders. Perhaps the best starting point is to look for horses that finished 1st or 2nd LTO as they have provided 10 of the last 15 winners. From there, there seems to a weight bias to lower weighted runners so one would be better off concentrating on those rather than horses near the top of the weights. Age wise there seems no bias, while it seems to have been a lucky race for jockey Timmy Murphy. From a trainer’s perspective runners from the stable of Paul Nicholls demand great respect. Indeed, it is not always their first string that wins either!
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Dave Renham is a uk Horse Racing Researcher
For more info Click Here ==> Horse Racing Statistics
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