Updated Lays Spreadsheet
Updated Lays Spreadsheet
I have just updated the long term spreadsheet for the lays.
It includes results from when Betfair first introduced BSP untill the end of yesterday.
See http://www.racingtrends.co.uk/download/rt-lays.xls
For those of you who might be interested in following them my own quick thoughts are as follows.
The first decision branch you should decide on for your own personal strategy
might be the method of staking or bank management.
With the fixed liability approach for example you lose no more laying a winning
10/1 horse than you would do a winning even money horse.
As such paying heed to a maximum BSP cut of limit is of less critical importance.
If however you go down the route of accepting from a Betfair user a fixed stake
irrespective of what odds are being laid , then put much more focus on bank protection
from a rogue big priced winner by adopting in your strategy a maximum BSP limit.
MAX BSP can be input into Betfair when you make a lay.
Bank staking percentages etc.
To some degree these are a measure of your personal outlook on aggression versus protection.
The spreadsheet is set at a default 5% across the board but those are not the values to churn out maximum past bank growth.
Optimum staking % values are actually more aggressive than 5% and in the spreadsheet at least will give
much bigger profit values than the default settings do. These optimum % values are noted in the spreadsheet for your info.
My own personal call on such things however is to assume the future will be worse than the past and in staking terms that means being a little
less aggressive than a historic spreadsheet suggests.
Some of you with bigger cajones than my good self however might choose to move more towards the optimum % values
based on 3000 odd past selections and accept a more up and down roller coaster ride of bank ups and downs.
Increased aggression is also likely more acceptable on a small sacrificial bank.
eg Say for example you have £100 you want to bet up aggressively to £500 or £1000 and then perhaps cash out and reset.
One completion of series will pay for several total busts.
Total busting of course becomes more likely the more aggressive you stake.
Whether betting or laying staking aggression goes beyond mathematical theory.
How you react as a human ( and we are all different ) plays a key role as well.
Note that the selections produce good long term profits laying to place as well as to win.
My suggestion if you plan to attack them on both fronts is to consider the use of two separate banks.
One for win. One for place.
BSP price limits can be pre set for each individually.
Similar with % bank etc.
You will most likely also note long odds horses you might choose to duck laying to win
but might be happy to take on for a place at shorter odds.
Anyhow enough for now.
The spreadsheet is worth examination and will permit you to play with settings to research something to suit yourself personally.
As Dave mentioned earlier it would be good to hear your own thoughts and ideas on how best to take advantage
of all the research he has done into these lay selections.
Best wishes
Mick
Site Admin
www.RacingTrends.co.uk
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Dave Renham is a uk Horse Racing Researcher
For more info Click Here ==> Horse Racing Statistics
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