Epsom Saturday – big race 10 year trends inc. the Derby
2.40 Epsom – Diomed Stakes 1m114yds (Group 3) 3yo+
POSITIVE TRENDS
| Market: 7 of the last 10 winners were 3rd to 6th in the betting. |
| Breeding: 8 of the last 10 winners were British bred. |
| Position LTO: All of the last 10 winners finished in the first four LTO. Backing all 58 qualifiers would have produced a profit of £38.00 (ROI +65.5%). |
| Price LTO: 8 of the last 10 winners were single figure prices LTO. |
| Race type LTO: Horses that raced in a handicap LTO have provided 4 winners from 18 for a profit of £9.00 (ROI +50%). |
| Running style: 8 of the last 10 winners raced close or up with the pace. |
| Class change: 8 of the last 10 winners were racing up in class in comparison to their last race. |
NEGATIVE TRENDS
| Favourites (inc. joints): 1 win from 12 for a loss of £6.00 (ROI -50%). |
| Distance LTO: Horses that raced over 10f or more LTO have provided just 1 win from 20. |
| Class LTO: Horses that raced in Group company LTO have provided just 2 winners from 32. |
| Beaten distance LTO: Horses beaten by 5 or more lengths LTO have provided 0 winners from 24. |
GENERAL STATS
| Fate of the favourites: 3, 1/4, 5/8, 7, 4, 3, 2, 2, 2, 7 |
| Age: 3yos have won 0 races from 9 runners (SR 0%); 4yos have won 2 races from 37 runners (SR 5.4%); 5yos have won 2 races from 17 (SR 11.8%); 6yos+ have won 6 races from 20 (SR 30%). |
Trends analysis: A good starting point would be to combine horses up in class with a position in the first four LTO. The value has been with runners that have been between 3rd and 6th in the betting, while favourites have struggled in recent years. In terms of age, it actually looks best to be older. Horses aged 6 year old and older have performed extremely well.
4.00 Epsom – Derby – 1m4f (Group 1) 3yo
POSITIVE TRENDS
| Market: The top three in the betting have provided 9 of the last 10 winners. |
| Favourites (inc. joints): 4 wins from 10 for a profit of £2.50 (ROI +20.8%). |
| Price: All of the last 10 winners were priced 6/1 or shorter. |
| Position LTO: Horses that finished 1st LTO have provided 7 of the last 10 winners. The other 3 winners came 2nd LTO. |
| 2yo career: All of the last 10 winners had won at least once as a 2yo (over 7f+). |
| Sire Stamina Index: All of the last 10 winners were by a sire with a stamina index of 8.6 or more. |
| Career starts: 9 of the last 10 winners had raced between 3 and 5 times in their careers. |
| Time off track: All of the last 10 winners had run within the last 5 weeks. |
| Trainers: 5 of the last 10 renewals have been won by Irish trainers. |
| Jockeys: Kieran Fallon and Johnny Murtagh have both ridden the winner on two occasions in the past 10 years. |
NEGATIVE TRENDS
| Market: Horses 5th or higher in the betting have provided 0 winners from 105. |
| Price: Horses priced 13/2 or bigger provided 0 winners from 113. |
| Beaten distance LTO: Horses beaten by 4 or more lengths LTO have provided 0 winners from 20. |
| Course LTO: Horses that ran at Lingfield LTO have provided 0 winners from 14. |
GENERAL STATS
| Fate of the favs: 1/2, 2, 13, 1/7, 1, 5, 1, 3, 2, 4 |
| Breeding: Irish bred horses have won 6 of the last 10 races. However, they have supplied around half the runners |
| Course LTO / performance: Horses that won at York LTO have won 3 races from 17 qualifiers and have also proved 3 runners up. |
Trends analysis: This is a market driven race. Horses priced 13/2 or bigger have a poor record and hence it should be possible to immediately narrow down the field using price as a starting point. LTO winners have a good record as one would expect and it is also important to look for runners who won over 7f or more as a 2yo. A recent run within 5 weeks has been key, while it should also be noted that Irish trainers have done well in recent years scoring 50% of the time.
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Dave Renham is a uk Horse Racing Researcher
For more info Click Here ==> Horse Racing Statistics
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