Soccer Tip – What’s New

Soccer-Tip Free Newsletter

Time for a quick update on recent progress here.

For starters we have a slightly new look site. I don’t believe it will win any design awards but it now works much better on mobile devices. Well the outside site does anyhow. Still work to do on the member area to beautify it for mobiles but with most clients picking data from the emails that member area  gets rarely used anyhow.

Another minor addition is a monthly prize draw to win two months of free membership here. There is no need to do anything extra to enter. All full members and those on our free newsletter list automatically have their names thrown into the hat.

 

What About Profits?

Well pretty much steadily upwards since we fine tuned the service to four leagues only back at the end of June.

Longer term data ( including a detailed spreadsheet ) is here

 

http://www.soccer-tip.co.uk/soccer-tip-results/

That covers the 4 leagues currently monitored going back for several years.

That longer term data set is obviously a key thing to look at.

But another fair and reasonable question may be

“How has it done since the change to 4 leagues only on June 26th?”

Pretty well at compounding up a bank I would say.

How well would depend on the level of staking aggression one adopts.
Such stuff will always carry a high element of personal preference.
Client A for example may have a large £ bank they treat with staking caution.
Client B on the other hand may have a small £ bank they are happy to take a more aggressive attitude with.
Client B may over time alter to act more like Client A if his £ bank grows.

But let’s punch a few numbers in as example.

For starters let’s say the start bank was £1000 back on June 26th.

What % of bank should one stake?

One starting point figure may be the Kelly % estimate from the longer term spreadsheet.
Let’s round that to 17%

Set the rolling bank % to 17% and the spreadsheet outputs and end bank of £1961

So close to doubling after a few months.
My own cautious Harry nature however would say that is a tad aggressive.
What about using just 50% of that value instead?

So now we set the % to 8.5%
Now we see an end bank of £2030

Interestingly lowering our staking aggression level has actually produced greater growth.
[ possibly a quirk of taking estimated Kelly from long term data and applying it to a smaller and different data set]
Let’s drop aggression a tad further still to 5%.
Now we see an end bank of £1652

Deduct a bit for service fees and that is still perfectly acceptable growth
compared to what a safe savings account or a riskier stocks and shares ISA is likely
to produce for you over a few months.

Lower aggression levels also have the benefit of smoothing the ride.
The weight of importance you put on that depends on your personality.

Some may sweat buckets over every kick of a ball.
Others will bet mechanically and unemotionally based on a pre defined number they feel will produce long term optimal results.
Perhaps they only sweat a decision when six month review points are hit.

Knowing yourself as well as knowing the numbers will help lead you to the correct sort of aggression zone for you personally.

As a slightly cautious Harry type myself I would usually veer towards adding extra safety factor to staking % aggression.
No matter what a spreadsheet said was optimal perfection for growthbased on past history, I would build a degree of allowance in to accommodate a future not quite so rosy as the spreadsheet past.

Some of you may argue that is too timid and wrong and that emotion and fear should be taken out of it with focus 100% on what numbers dictate.

Quite probably you may be proved correct.
It’s just my unique human personality that would prefer to add a bit of cautious extra safety factor.

Anyhow if you want to play around with % figures yourself the larger long term spreadsheet is downloadable at

http://www.soccer-tip.co.uk/soccer-tip-results/

[ With a lot more past history in it this one obviously produces
% bank growth figures way in excess of what I cite above for the shorter term
]

Of if you also want to see the shorter most recent data only version here is a link to that.
http://www.soccer-tip.co.uk/soccer-tip-4league-results-live-only.xls

Note the rolling bank page on the spreadsheet has a simple box where you can enter the desired % of bank stake you wish to examine.

Play around altering the % and you should be able to produce even higher end bank figures than the max I have listed above.
Want To Join Up?

Well feel free to use the £1 test deal on our home page.

Best Wishes
Mick
Site Admin
http://www.soccer-tip.co.uk

PS Note all such data analysis on a spreadsheet
will always be somewhat theoretical in nature.
Double an initial £1000 once year and you will have a million in ten years time.
Double it twice a year and you won’t have to wait so long.
In real life of course bookies will not be so keen to do business with you after a while.
If in the current or future position of restricted choice of who to bet with
at the stakes you desire  then of course a degree of edge erosion compared to spreadsheet figures has
to be expected.
Spreadsheet land and the real world are not the same place.

On the flip side however

– Higher odds than cited may be available on Exchanges.

– Noting market trends and timing your bets accordingly can add extra edge.
eg back a steamer now..let a drifter drift further etc.

– Those of you not in the uk often have additional choices such as Pinnacleand SBOBet and can often get higher odds than we cite here etc.

Arguably the key info is Louise’s mathematically calculated true odds line figure.
Spreadsheet records are based on what the market offers at a semi arbitrary
point in time and from a limited set of uk regulated normal bookies on oddsportal.

In short spreadsheets are useful as a bit of rough guidance ..but what really matters is the real world and how you as an individual do with the info provided.
PPS Doubles and Trebles – Not what we do here but after 3 wins from 3 last weekend
a client emailed in asking if they were a good idea.
I might do a future rant for you explaining some pros and cons.
Just to help ensure I don’t miss any key points I’d appreciate your own feedback.

Double & Trebles – Do you think they are

– idiotic
– brilliant
– or is it a case of “it depends” ?

Cambridgeshire Ten Year Trends

Cambridgeshire Ten Year Trends

I have taken a look at the Cambridgshire focussing on data over the past ten years.

My researched facts and figures are below.

If you like this sort of thing note my Horse Race Report service

which offers more for free and even more for those who subscribe.

 


Cambridgeshire (3yo+)

 

 
Course – Newmarket
Distance – 1 mile 1 furlong
Date – September 28th
Average field size last 10 years – 32
 
 
Market Trends
 
Favourites (inc. joints): 2 wins from 12 for a break even situation.
Top three in betting: 4 wins for the top three in the betting.
Top six in betting: 6 wins for the top six in the betting.
Price: Horses priced 14/1 or bigger have provided 6 of the last 10 winners.
 
 
LTO stats
 
Days since last run: 6 of the last 10 winners had been off the track for 16 days or less.
Position LTO: 1 win for horses that won LTO (from 54 runners).
Position LTO: 4 wins for horses that finished in the first three LTO from 123 runners.
LTO favourites: 2 wins for horses that were favourite LTO (from 55 runners).
LTO Top three in betting: 3 wins for horses from the top three in the betting LTO (from 143 runners).
LTO price: Horses priced 9/1 to 20/1 LTO have provided 7 of the last 10 winners.
LTO race type: Horses that ran in a non handicap LTO have provided 0 winners from 71.
LTO course: Horses that raced at Newbury LTOhave provided 5 wins from 58.
 
 
Age
 
Age
Wins
Runners
SR%
Profit/loss
ROI%
3
3
65
4.6
-£39.00
-60.0
4
3
129
2.3
-£82.00
-63.6
5
2
58
3.5
-£2.00
-3.5
6
2
36
5.6
+£82.00
+227.8
7+
0
35
0.0
-£35.00
-100.0
 
 
 
Official ratings (OR)
 
OR band
Wins
Runners
SR%
Profit/loss
ROI%
93 and below
3
110
2.7
-£39.00
-35.5
94-99
4
120
3.3
+£7.00
+5.8
100 and above
3
93
3.2
-£44.00
-47.3
 
Draw
 
Draws
Wins
Runners
SR%
1-11
3
110
2.7
12-22
4
110
3.6
23+
3
103
2.9
 
 
Breeding
 
Breeding
Wins
Runners
SR%
Profit/loss
ROI%
GB
6
140
4.3
+£20.00
+14.3
GER
1
4
25.0
+£6.00
+150.0
IRE
2
134
1.5
-£83.00
-61.9
USA
1
40
2.5
-£14.00
-35.0
Other countries
0
5
0.0
-£5.00
-100.0
 
 
Class change
 
Class change
Wins
Runners
SR%
Profit/loss
ROI%
Down in class
0
33
0.0
-£33.00
-100.0
Same class
8
213
3.8
+£4.00
+1.9
Up in class
2
75
2.7
-£45.00
-60.0
 
 
Trainer stats
 
Trainers: 2 wins from 8 for John Gosden.
 
 
General stats
 
Headgear (visor, cheekpieces, blinkers, etc): 2 wins from 56.
Claiming jockeys: 2 wins from 49.
Recent win: 7 of the last 10 winners had won at least once in their last three starts from 149 runners. Backing all qualifiers would have produced a profit of £25.00 (ROI +16.8%).
Handicap wins: Horses that had not won a handicap previously have provided 0 winners 53.
Course winners: Horses that have previously won at the course have provided just 1 winner from 55.
 
 
Conclusion – A race that averages 32 runners is going to be tough to unravel and whatever happens the trends can only be used to create a shortlist of candidates. A good starting point looks to be ignoring runners that raced in a non handicap LTO. They have had 0 winners in the last 10 years and they have made up 22% of the total runners. It also looks worth avoiding horses that have failed to win a handicap as well. From a positive perspective, horses that were priced between 9/1 and 20/1 LTO have a good record. They have provided 70% of the winners from only 37% of the total runners. There seems no significant age bias although 7yos+ are probably worth avoiding (0 wins and only 3 placed runners from 36). There has been little too in the draw.
 

Best Wishes
Dave
www.HorseRaceReport.co.uk

 

 

 

*****************************************
Dave Renham is a uk Horse Racing Researcher
For more info Click Here ==> Horse Racing Statistics
*****************************************

Uk Horse Racing Pace Figures

Over the past ten years I have explored pace and running styles in great depth. The reason for this is simple – I believe this is an area where hard work and research can still gain you a betting edge over the majority of punters.

I have just created a new page explaining more about what page figures are and how they can be used.

See here ==> Horse Racing Pace Figures

*****************************************
Dave Renham is a uk Horse Racing Researcher
For more info Click Here ==> Horse Racing Statistics
*****************************************

Cheltenham Festival 2013 Free Stats Download

Free pdf download available detailing ten year trends for several Cheltenham Festival 2013 races

Go to

http://www.racingtrends.co.uk/cheltenham-festival-stats.php

*****************************************
Dave Renham is a uk Horse Racing Researcher
For more info Click Here ==> Horse Racing Statistics
*****************************************

RacingTrends For Park Hill (Doncaster) Stakes

4.10 Doncaster – Park Hill (Doncaster) Stakes – Listed (6f) 2yo

POSITIVE TRENDS

Favourites (inc. joints): There have been 5 winning favourites from 14 and backing all selections would have produced a profit of £3.46 (ROI +24.7%).
Price: Horses priced 11/1 or shorter have provided 9 of the last 10 winners.
LTO favourite: 5 of the last 10 winners were favourite LTO.
LTO Price: 8 of the last 10 winners had an SP of 8/1 or less on their last start.
Days since last run: 9 of the last 10 winners had run within the past 24 days.
Position LTO: 6 of the last 10 winners won LTO. Backing all LTO winners would have produced a profit of £5.13 (ROI +16.5%).
Trainers: 2 winners a piece for Brian Meehan and Mark Johnston.
Distance LTO: 9 of the last 10 winners raced over 6f LTO.
Course LTO: Horses that raced at York LTO have produced 5 winners from 17 for a small profit of £2.13 (ROI +12.5%).

NEGATIVE TRENDS

Female runners: Just 1 win from 19 for fillies for a loss of £16.50 (ROI -86.8%).

GENERAL STATS

Breeding: British bred runners have provided 5 winners from 47 (SR 10.6%); Irish bred runners have provided 4 winners from 37 (SR 10.8); US bred runners have 1 winner from 11 (SR 9.1%); other countries combined are 0 from q (SR 0%).

Trends analysis: This race has plenty of positive trends. Favourites have a good record as do LTO favourites and in general the market has got this race right – 9 winners priced 11/1 or shorter and just one big shock at 50/1 (Imperial Guest in 2008). Horses that ran over 6f LTO do have an edge winning 90% of the races from 65% of the total runners. LTO winners also should be noted. Both Brian Meehan and Mark Johnston have been successful in the race twice (Johnston also won it in 2001).

*****************************************
Dave Renham is a uk Horse Racing Researcher
For more info Click Here ==> Horse Racing Statistics
*****************************************

10 year trends Saturday

For members of www.racingtrends.co.uk alongside the daily e mails of racing information they also get 10 year trnds for big meetings and big races. Saturday is a big day at Ascot and here are the 3 races my members have been sent.

1.35 Ascot – Longines Handicap – 7f (class 3 handicap) 3yo+

POSITIVE TRENDS

Price: Horses priced between 9/1 and 20/1 have provided 8 of the last 10 winners.
Position LTO: Horses that finished 3rd to 6th LTO have provided 9 of the last 10 winners.
Days since last run: 7 of the last 10 winners had raced within the last 17 days.
Price LTO: 6 of the last 10 winners were priced 9/1 or bigger LTO.
Jockeys: Miss S Brotherton has won the race twice and been placed on one other occasion.
NEGATIVE TRENDS
Favourites (inc. joints): 0 wins from 13.
Market: Just 1 win from 32 for horses from the top three of the betting.
Weight rank: Horses from the top 8 of the weights have provided just 3 winners from 82 for a loss of £50.00 (ROI -61%).
Days since last run: Horses off the track for over 5 weeks have provided 0 winners from 32 runners.
Position LTO: Horses that won or finished 2nd LTO have provided 0 winners from 49.
LTO race: 22 horses raced in a non handicap LTO and all have lost.
GENERAL STATS

Age: 3yos have provided 0 winners from 17 (SR 0%); 4yos have provided 6 winners from 59 (SR 10.2%); 5yos have provided 2 winners from 47 (SR 4.3%); 6yos+ have provided 2 winners from 84 (SR 2.4%).

Trends analysis: In recent years it has been worthwhile to look for horses priced 9/1 to 20/1 as they have provided 8 of the last 10 winners. Indeed you could have made a profit by backing all runners in this price bracket. The top three in the betting have a dreadful record and there has been value to look beyond these runners. Last time out winners / runners up also have performed poorly with no success from 49 runners in the past 10 renewals.  4 year olds have the best record age wise, while horses aged 6 or older look worth avoiding. All in all this is a typically open ladies’ handicap.

3.20 Ascot – Summer Mile Stakes (Group 2) 4yo+

POSITIVE TRENDS

Market: 2nd favourites have won 5 of the last 10 races for a profit of £10.38 (ROI +94.3%).
Market: 9 of the last 10 winners came from second to fifth in the betting.
Position LTO: 6 of the last 10 winners finished 1st or 2nd LTO. Backing all 32 runner would have produced a profit of £15.63 (ROI +48.8%).
Price: All of the last 10 winners have been priced 11/1 or shorter.
Breeding: American bred runners are rare but they have secured 3 wins from just 13 runners for a profit of £11.00 (ROI +84.6%).
Class LTO: 6 of the last 10 winners ran in a Group 1 race LTO.
Price LTO: 6 of the last 10 winners were priced 9/1 or bigger LTO.
Course LTO: 8 of the last 10 winners ran at a Grade 1 track LTO; one other winner raced at Sha Tin LTO (the main track in Hong Kong).
Days since last run: 5 of the last 10 winners had been off the track for at least 8 weeks.
NEGATIVE TRENDS

Favourites: 1 win from 10 for a loss of £7.13 (ROI -71.3%).
Price: Horses priced 12/1 or bigger have provided 0 winners from 34.
GENERAL STATS

Trainers: No trainer has won the race more than once in the past 10 years.
Age: 4yos have provided 5 winners from 41 (SR 12.2%); 5yos have provided 2 winners from 22 (SR 9.1%); 6yos have provided 2 winners from 12 (SR 16.7%); 7yos+ have provided 1 winner from 11 (SR 9.1%).
Trends analysis: This race has not been a good one for favourites, although with second favourites having a good record it is probably just a statistical blip. There are several positive trends to note such as horses that ran in a Group 1 race LTO – they have provided 60% of the winners from only 28% of the total runners. Likewise horses off the track for 8 weeks or more have an excellent record – they have provided 50% of the winners from only 16% of the total runners. In terms of age 4yos have won the most races, but they have provided the most runners – essentially there seems to be no age bias.

4.35 Ascot – King George & Queen Elizabeth Stakes – 1m4f (Group 1) 3yo+
POSITIVE TRENDS

Favourites: 6 wins from 10 for a profit of £3.97 (ROI +39.7%).
Market: The top four in the betting have provided all of the last 10 winners.
Price: All of the winners have been priced 13/2 or shorter.
Price: Horses priced 5/2 or shorter have provided 6 winners from just 9 runners.
Breeding: 9 of the last 10 winners were Irish bred.
Position LTO: 8 of the last 10 winners finished in the first two LTO (6 won).
Course LTO: 4 of the last 5 winners raced at Royal Ascot LTO.
Trainers: Sir Michael Stoute has had 3 wins, Aidan O’Brien and John Oxx 2 a piece.
NEGATIVE TRENDS

Price: Horses priced 7/1 or bigger have produced 0 winners from 53.
Market: Horses 5th or higher in the betting market have provided 0 winners from 45.
Breeding: Just 1 win from 21 for British bred runners.
GENERAL STATS

Age: 3yos have provided 2 winners from 10 (SR 20%); 4yos have provided 8 winners from 40 (SR 20%); 5yos+ have provided 0 winners from 35 (SR 0%).

Trends analysis: This has been a market driven race with favourites having an excellent record, and the shorter the price the better. Horses priced 5/2 or shorter have a excellent record of 6 wins from only 9 qualifiers. Irish bred runners have done well as have Irish trainers, while horses that raced at Royal Ascot LTO have a good recent record. A win LTO has also been a positive. 4 year olds have dominated in recent years with not many 3 year olds prepared to take on their elders. 5yos have a very poor recent record.

*****************************************
Dave Renham is a uk Horse Racing Researcher
For more info Click Here ==> Horse Racing Statistics
*****************************************

Free Cheltenham Stats Download

We have researched the last ten years of Cheltenham and have provided a free download highlighting key stats findings.

The free download is cool but it only covers six of the races at this years Cheltenham Festival.

A full member version is more comprehensive with 19 races examined.

But the good news is there is a free trial running over Cheltenham so you can join for a cost of £0 and read the full version of the Cheltenham Stats Report  if you want it.

See ==>  Cheltenham Festival Stats for both the free stats download and further free trail info.

*****************************************
Dave Renham is a uk Horse Racing Researcher
For more info Click Here ==> Horse Racing Statistics
*****************************************

Saturday 25th Feb 10 year trends

4.10 Kempton – Pendil Novices Chase– 2m 4f 110yds (Grade 2)

POSITIVE TRENDS

Favourites (inc. joints): There have been 5 winning favourites from 11.
Market: The top three in the betting has provided 9 of the last 10 winners.
Course LTO: 5 of the 10 winners raced at Sandown LTO from just 10 qualifiers.
Price: Horses priced 11/2 or shorter have produced 9 of the last 10 winners.
Market LTO: Horses that were in the top two in the betting LTO have provided 8 of the last 10 winners.
Position LTO: Horses that finished 1st LTO have provided 7 of the 10 winners.
Trainers: Paul Nicholls has won the race 5 times in the last 10 seasons including the 5 of the last 6 renewals. Venetia Williams has had just 2 runners and both have won.
Breeding: French and German breds have combined to win 6 races from 17 qualifiers producing a profit of £15.17 (ROI +89.2%).
Front runners: 4 wins for horses taking an early lead in the race.

NEGATIVE TRENDS

Price: Horses priced 6/1 or bigger have provided just 1 winner from 26 runners for a loss of £13.00 (ROI -50%).
Position LTO: Horses that finished 3rd or worse LTO have provided just 1 winner from 23 for a loss of £19.50 (ROI -84.8%).

GENERAL STATS

Age: 5 year olds have produced 1 winner from 6 qualifiers (SR 16.7%); 6 year olds

have produced 3 winners from 9 qualifiers (SR 33.3%); 7 year olds have produced

5 winners from 18 qualifiers (SR 27.8%); 8 year olds have produced 1 winner from

13 qualifiers (SR 7.7%); 9 year olds plus have produced 0 winners from 8 qualifiers

(SR 0%).

Trends analysis: This has been a market dominated race so far with favourites having a decent record, and the top three in the betting providing all bar one of the winners. Horses that ran at Sandown LTO deserve close scrutiny as they have provided 50% of the winners from just 18% of the total runners. LTO winners have shown a profit, while Paul Nicholls has an exceptional record in recent times. In terms of age, horses aged 6 and 7 look the ones to concentrate on.

3.25 Newcastle – Eider Handicap Chase – 4m1f (Class 2)

POSITIVE TRENDS

Market: Second and third favourites have provided 5 of the last 10 winners for a profit of £17.00 (ROI +73.9%).
Price: Horses priced 5/1 to 11/1 have provided 7 of the last 10 winners.
Days since last run: 6 of the last 10 winners had been off the track for 17 days or less.
Weight rank: 9 of the last 10 winners have come from the top 5 in the weights.

NEGATIVE TRENDS

Favourites (inc. joints): There has been 1 winning favourite from 11 for a loss of £6.00 (ROI -54.6%).
Weight: Horses carrying 10st 10lb or less have provided 1 winner from 82 for a loss of £73.00 (ROI -89%).
Weight rank: Horses 6th in the weights or lower have provided 1 winner from 98 for a loss of £89.00 (ROI -90.8%).
Price: Horses priced 20/1 or bigger have provided 1 winner from 58 qualifiers.
Breeding: British bred runners have provided just 2 winners from 50.
Position LTO: Horses that failed to finish LTO have provided 1 winner from 26.

GENERAL STATS

Age: 6 and 7 year olds have produced 0 winners from 12 qualifiers (SR 0%); 8 year

olds have produced 3 winners from 25 qualifiers (SR 12%); 9 year olds have

produced 4 winners from 39 qualifiers (SR 10.3%); 10 year olds have produced 2

winners from 44 qualifiers (SR 4.6%); 11 year olds plus have produced 1 winner

from 34 (SR 2.9%).

Trends analysis: The strongest bias in this race seems to be in terms of weight carried. The top 5 in the weights have an excellent record, especially when you consider the average field size has been over 14. Favourites have struggled and the value has been with those priced 5/1 to 11/1. Age wise it looks that 8 and 9 year olds have an edge.

*****************************************
Dave Renham is a uk Horse Racing Researcher
For more info Click Here ==> Horse Racing Statistics
*****************************************

Haydock 10 year trends – Saturday

1.45 Haydock – Champion Hurdle Trial (Grade 2) – 2m

POSITIVE TRENDS

Market: 7 of the last 10 winners have come from the top two in the betting.
Price: 9 of the last 10 winners were priced 7/1 or shorter.
Market LTO: 8 of the last 10 winners were in the top three in the betting LTO.
Position LTO: 8 of the last 10 winners finished in the first three LTO.
Course LTO: All of the last 10 winners raced at a Grade 1 track LTO.
Class LTO: 4 of the last 10 winners raced in a Grade 1 event LTO from just 11 qualifiers. Backing them all would have produced a profit of £9.00 (ROI +81.8%).

NEGATIVE TRENDS

Price: Horses priced 14/1 or bigger have provided 0 winners from 22 (only 3 have placed).
Running style: No runner has managed to make all the running.

GENERAL STATS

Favourites: There have been 4 winning favourites from 10 qualifiers showing a loss of £1.20 (ROI -12%).
Age: 4 year olds have produced 0 winners from 1 qualifier (SR 0%); 5 year olds have produced 2 winners from 5 qualifiers (SR 40%); 6 year olds have produced 3 winners from 15 qualifiers (SR 20%); 7 year olds have produced 1 winner from 12 qualifiers (SR 8.3%); 8 year olds have provided 1 winner from 9 qualifiers (SR 11.1%), 9 & 10 year olds have provided 3 winners from 14 qualifiers (21.4%); 11 year olds plus have provided 0 winners from 7 (SR 0%).
Breeding: French breds have provided 4 winners from 16 (SR 25%); British breds have provided 3 winners from 21 (SR 14.3%), Irish breds have provided 3 winners from 25 (SR 12%).
Trainers: No trainer has managed to win the race more than once.

Trends analysis: The market is a decent guide with 90% of the winners priced 7/1 or shorter. A run at a Grade 1 track LTO has been key with all 10 winners sharing that stat. Horses that finished in the first three LTO are worth close scrutiny as are those that were in the top three in the betting on the most recent start. In terms of age there are no clear patterns.

3.30 Haydock – Peter Marsh Chase (Grade 2 Limited handicap) – 3m

POSITIVE TRENDS

Market: Third to fifth in the betting market have provided 7 winners from 33 qualifiers for a profit of £45.00 (ROI +136.4%).
Price: 7 of the last 10 winners were priced between 4/1 and 8/1.
Recent wins: All of the last 10 winners had won at least once in their last five starts.
Days since last run: 8 of the last 10 winners had raced within the last month.
Course winners: 5 of the last 10 winners had previously won at Haydock.
LTO course: 8 of the last 10 winners raced LTO at either Haydock or Wetherby. Backing all runners would have produced 8 winners from 28 for a profit of £52.75 (ROI +188.4%).
Running style: 5 of the last 10 winners have led early and made most or all of the running.
Trainers: Venetia Williams has saddled 2 winners and a third from 5 runners. Sue Smith has saddled two winners and 2 placed from 7.

NEGATIVE TRENDS

Favourites: There has been 1 winning favourite from 10 qualifiers showing a loss of £6.75 (ROI -67.5%).
Breeding: French breds have a poor record in the race with just 1 success from 24 runners for a loss of £17.00 (ROI -70.8%).

GENERAL STATS

Age: 6 year olds have produced 0 winners from 1 qualifier (SR 0%); 7 year olds have produced 0 winners from 12 qualifiers (SR 0%); 8 year olds have produced 4 winners from 22 qualifiers (SR 18.2%); 9 year olds have produced 2 winners from 24 qualifiers (SR 8.3%); 10 year olds have produced 3 wins from 17 qualifiers (SR 17.6%); 11 year olds plus have produced 1 win from 13 qualifiers (SR 7.7%).

Trends analysis: The best starting point is to look for horses that have won at least once in their last five starts as they have provided all of the last 10 winners. In terms of price, the most successful ‘bracket’ has been between 4/1 and 8/1. Two other strong positives are horses that raced at either Haydock or Wetherby last time out, and those that have raced within the month. From a negative perspective, it seems best to avoid horses that are French bred and favourites have also struggled in recent years.

*****************************************
Dave Renham is a uk Horse Racing Researcher
For more info Click Here ==> Horse Racing Statistics
*****************************************

10 year trends Sandown Sat 7th Jan 2012

1.35 Sandown – 32Red Poker Juvenile Hurdle – class 4 (2m ½f) 

 

POSITIVE TRENDS

Favourites: There has been 5 winning favourites from 10 and backing all selections would have produced a profit of 86 pence (ROI +8.6%).
Price: 8 of the last 10 winners were priced 8/1 or shorter. (N.B. the other two winners were at 50/1 and 66/1).
Days since last run: Horses that had last raced between 8 and 14 days previously have provided 4 of the last 10 winners from just 11 runners.
Position LTO: 7 of the last 10 winners finished in the first three LTO.
Market LTO: 7 of the last 10 winners were favourite or second favourite LTO.
Running style: 7 of the last 10 winners raced close to or up with the pace (3 made all).

 

NEGATIVE TRENDS

Sex of horse: 0 wins from 13 for female runners.
Price LTO: Horses priced 25/1 or bigger LTO have provided 0 winners from 26.
Distance beaten LTO: Horses beaten 20 lengths or more LTO have provided just 1 winner from 39 qualifiers.

 

GENERAL STATS

Trainers: No trainer has saddled the winner more than once.

 

Trends analysis: Favourites have a good record and despite two big priced winners the market tends to get it right. Past market data has proved useful also with 7 winners having been favourite or second favourite LTO. Good recent form is a plus with 70% of the winners having finished in the first three LTO. In terms of negatives, horses well beaten LTO have a poor record, as do female runners.

 

 

2.05 Sandown – 32Red Handicap Chase – Class 2 (2m)

 

POSITIVE TRENDS

Market: 6 of the last 10 winners were second or third favourites.
Price: 8 of the last 10 winners were priced 11/2 or shorter.
Weight rank: 7 of the last 10 winners were 3rd to 5yh in the weights.
Position LTO: 4 of the last 10 winners have finished 6th or worse LTO.
LTO favourites: Horses that were favourite LTO have provided 5 winners from 15 for a profit of £4.25 (ROI +28.3%).
Distance beaten LTO: Horses beaten 20 lengths or more LTO have provided 5 winners from 22 runners for a profit of £17.25 (ROI +78.4%).

 

NEGATIVE TRENDS

Market: Favourites have provided 2 winners from 10 for a loss of £3.50 (ROI -35%).
Market: Horses 4th in the betting or bigger have provided just 2 winners from 42.
Headgear: 0 wins from 11 for horses wearing headgear.
Breeding: French bred runners have provided just 1 winner from 19 qualifiers for a loss of £15.75 (ROI -82.9%).

 

GENERAL STATS

Age: 5 & 6 year olds have produced 1 winner from 2 qualifiers (SR 50%); 7 year olds have produced 0 winners from 11 qualifiers (0%); 8 year olds have produced 5 winners from 22 qualifiers (SR 22.7%); 9 year olds have produced 3 winners from 22 (SR 13.6%); 10 year olds have produced 1 winner from 17 (SR 5.9%).

 

Trends analysis: this race has favoured second and third favourites, while the actual market leaders have provided poor value. LTO form has not been that important with 5 of the winners having been beaten by 20 lengths or more on their most recent outing. 7 of the last 10 winners were ranked 3rd to 5th in the weights, while in terms of age, 8 year olds have done best, with horses 10 or older having struggled.

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Dave Renham is a uk Horse Racing Researcher
For more info Click Here ==> Horse Racing Statistics
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