Picking a Cheltenham Festival 2018 Winner

Picking a Cheltenham Festival 2018 Winner

Many punters will spend lots of time going through the cards looking for the value at the Cheltenham festival. We can help you further! Check out this horse generator which will hopefully select you a winning horse at the 2018 Cheltenham festival. The Gold Cup again has an open look to it with the latest Cheltenham betting odds making the Nicky Henderson trained Might Bite as the 10/3 favourite.

The 9 year old son of Scorpion has always had an incredible amount of ability but has not always had his head firmly on the game. His record under rules now stands at 9 victories in his 14 starts that have included his last 5. He has put in some breath-taking performances in the last few seasons so his position at the head of betting is justified.

Back in December 2016 and the Grade 1 Kauto Star Novices Chase, Might Bite was sent off at 11/2 but put in a jaw dropping performance. He pulled 18 lengths ahead before falling at the last in which he was about to clock a very fast time. This performance was the first time Might Bite firmly establish himself as one of the most exciting horses around. This was also another indication of the horse not always have his mind on the job in the finishing stages of a race.

Is Might Bite just very tired at the end of his races or does he have so much ability that he is getting bored? His performance in the RSA Novices Chase (Grade 1) at the Cheltenham festival will forever remain in the memory as he again put in a faultless round of jumping and pulled 12 lengths clear approaching the last. Following jumping the last he started to idle while veering right and came to almost a stop before his stablemate Whisper joined him. He then realised the race was not over and picked up to get back up by a nose on the line.

This RSA performance firmly showed the endless engine the horse has but how good is Might Bite? His next major start was his most recent in the King George V1 Chase (Grade 1) over Christmas. He put a faultless round of jumping and seemed to be far more professional drawing four lengths clear only to idle without the jockey ever having to get serious. The horse continues to win but form beating Double Shuffle (50/1 shot) does not scream out Cheltenham Gold Cup winner. However all will be revealed March 16th.

 

 

 

 

 

 

Cheltenham’s Biggest Gambles

The Cheltenham Festival is here! There’s a long, long list of the star horses attending Cheltenham Festival, but there are only a few that stand out from the crowd, one in particular being Samcro. Due to his intense training, from his trainer Gordon Elliott, he has become one of the most discussed horses to enter this year’s festival. The Paddy Power odds for Samcro on Tuesday’s Supreme Novice Hurdle are 6/4, close behind Getabird on 11/8, keep your chances nice and flexible. Then on the Wednesday for the Ballymore Novices, Samcro can been seen leading the way on 8/11. The Cheltenham Festival betting scene is looking pretty intriguing with plenty of chances for a cheeky flutter.

Considering Samcro has not raced at Cheltenham Festival before and yet received such good odds, it bodes very well for his chances of winning. He’s coming into this season after winning his first three bumpers, one of which included an impressive 17-length victory.

Other leading horses, such as Faugheen, who has the best Paddy Power odds at 2/1 for the Champion Hurdle, has managed to attract considerable attention. Having only just returned to racing this season after following a long break due to injury, he’s only been beaten once, in 2015 by stablemate Nichols Canyon and for many is looking like a definite banker.

The Cheltenham race course is a tough track, the horses will have to tackle eight fences, hurdles and ditches, and beat the race if they want to bring home the crown. With so much at stake, you can bet that there’s going to be some daredevils taking on some riSky bets in the hope of profit. Other examples of Cheltenham’s biggest gambles can be found below:

 

Biggest Gambles - PP

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Cheltenham Gold Cup Tip

Cheltenham Gold Cup Tip

I have for you today a reasoned longer odds shot for the Cheltenham Gold Cup.

It is a copy of an official bet from Guy Ward’s excellent Mathematician Service.

How many racing services do you know off that are good enough to

have had clients stay with them for more than ten years continuous membership
duration?

You could probably count such services on one hand.

Perhaps even on the hand of a crocodile feeder that is missing a few fingers.

 

The below Guy sent to his members on Sunday so odds on

offer right now may differ slightly to what he spoke about then.

 

NB This is Part 1 of his Gold Cup Betting.

50% of his usual stake he invested on Sunday March 11th

The rest he will decide upon closer to the race itself.

His Part 2 day of race thoughts will probably include a lot of extra stat analysis
of the race.

This Part 2 analysis you can actually get for FREE from him if you so wish.

See here Free Gold Cup Tip

+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

1 Account bet

This is Ante Post

In the Cheltenham Gold Cup

 

Partially staked to 50% stake

 

Account Bet

Cheltenham Gold Cup

Friday – Cheltenham 3.30pm

EDWULF 20/1 +

£3 Win

£2 Place

 

Half Stakes Today

The remaining £5 Stake

Will be given nearer the race

 

25/1 Hills

22/1 Sportingbet Betfair

20/1 Ladbrokes Skybet Unibet Corals

20/1 Boyles Betbright

Cheltenham Gold Cup

 

EDWULF is 25/1 with Hills

He is 20/1 with most firms

He is around 22/1 on Betfair

 

Last night I backed him to win

 

The last review I did on this race

I had him on a list of 5 horses

Of potential shock winners

Minella Rocco 33/1

Edwulf 25/1

Road to Respect 10/1

Definitely Red 20/1

Double Shuffle 40/1

 

 

EDWULF has made the staking

I want to bet him now at the price

This horse is lucky to be alive

I spotted him earlier than most

Blew me away at Navan in February 2017

He was my Cheltenham Banker in 2017

Had every chance in the 4 miler

Before he collapsed in spasms

Looking like he might even die

He lost his eyesight which has returned

No reason why he can’t win this

Just done a career best Racing Post Rating

He seems to have been unfairly overlooked

As a horse lucky to be still alive and racing

Perhaps people might see him as weak and soft

Having had such a horrible experience

That could well be a big mistake

It could be a collectively false assumption

 

He’s just won the Irish Gold Cup

Having hardly had a race all season

Maybe he is the horse I always felt he was

His last win was really impressive

He has a lovely Gold Cup profile as well

EDWULF will be part of my staking plan

I think we should bet him now at 20/1

 

 

 

 

 

How much does a Premier League club spend on getting their football kits washed

How much would a Premier League Team
spend each year on washing it’s football kit?

I am sure that is a question that has been
keeping you awake at night for many a year now?

No?

Well even if not, now that it has been posed I am
sure you are semi curious as to the answer.

All is revealed in the info graphic below
courtesy of Paddy  Power football bets

 

kit-washes-infographic

 

 

Are You A Betting Robot?

Soccer-Tip Free Newsletter

It was another good weekend last weekend.

Two league 1 matches were highlighted as over 2.5 goal value.

Mk Dons 5 – 3 Northampton
Rochdale 0 – 4 Oxford Utd

So a total of 12 goals across the two matches.

Louise had two 1.5 pt singles
and a 0.5 pt double.

If you missed last weeks free newsletter
it contains reference to longer term bank building stats.
http://www.soccer-tip.co.uk/soccer-betting/soccer-tip-betting-update/

And there is a bit more data here
http://www.soccer-tip.co.uk/soccer-tip-results/

Not every selection is a winner of course.
As you can see noted strike rate is about 60%

High strike rate with a decent edge is
a great combo for bank building.

Some people like 20/1 horses.
Not so pleasing to me with such stuff
is the need to accommodate losing runs.
Over 1000 such bets you might expect
to hit a maximum losing run in the region
of 135 losers on the trot !

How much of your typical 20/1 Horse Tipsters
effort will go to hyping up his big priced infrequent winner
when he hits one and how much time will he dedicate
to highlighting a 135 losing run potential ”</p

Soccer Tip Betting Update

Soccer-Tip Free Newsletter

It’s been about 2 months since our last free newsletter
so I thought it time for a quick update.

The short and sweet of it is that Louise has produced
some decent upwards progress since then.

Looking back at the Nov 16th newsletter
Copy at http://www.soccer-tip.co.uk/soccer-betting/soccer-tip-whats-new/

one thing I was looking at was the idea of rolling bank style compounding
for action since June 26th. This was the date we switched to the current
four league only approach.

I used three different percentages.

– 17% was a rough Kelly theorem estimate.
– 8.5% was half Kelly
– 5% was an arbitrary more cautious value.

A £1000 start bank was assumed.

The table below indicates the values churned out of my spreadsheet
both on Nov 16th and today Jan 19th

 

% to stake
16-Nov-16
19-Jan-17
17
£1,961
£6,447
8.5
£2,030
£4,652
5
£1,652
£2,852

So quite decent jumps all round since November.

Exactly what we want to see.
Good work Louise.
Tthose figures relate to June 26th onwards.
Much much higher would be churned out if analysing
the four league data going back extra years.

There are two spreadsheets here if you want to look at them.

A – Data from June 26th only ( used for figs above )
http://www.soccer-tip.co.uk/soccer-tip-4league-results-live-only.xls

B – The bigger dataset with extra years
http://www.soccer-tip.co.uk/soccer-tip-4league-results.xls

Do note the PS section on the original Nov 16th newsletter as per link above.
Really just some real world pragmatism to apply to spreadsheet analysis.

Service fees of course you need to account for as well.
If you have a £50 betting bank it’s not worth joining up.
If you have a £5k betting bank service fees will be almost insignificant.

For those on smaller banks a few tips to maximise longer term growth
may be to fund the monthly fee out of a separate pot each month instead of
having it eat a chunk out of your compounding bank.
Compounding is like a snowball rolling down a hill.
It gets greater in volume on each turn.
But regularly biting chunks out of it will reduce
the size of the snowball at the bottom of the hill.

Also ponder the concept of you adding to your betting bank
a monthly contribution to suit you pocket. That way your bank
can grow over the year via additional contribution and hopefully
from a positive return on the bets.

Both those will be good ideas assuming positive growth
of funds.

Just like with a stocks and shares ISA however positive growth
can never be guaranteed with betting.

The nature of the beast will always be one of educated risk.

Those of you with larger banks may take a different approach.
Perhaps one with more emphasis to skimming and setting aside profits.
A “happy days” point is when you have reclaimed any original bank
as set aside profit and are left with a similar figure still invested.

The concept that all clients should do exactly the same thing
staking wise is an idea I myself would file in the silly bin.
Other Bits and Bobs

The MLS season finished in December
and right now Louise’s odds model is focussed
on Scottish Premier and League 1 action.

She has also started doing the rare double and treble
in addition to the normal singles.
Only two so far ( both winners ) and a further one this weekend.
On my to do list is a mini article explaining why doubles etc
are normally silly mug punter fodder but on the flip
side they can be a smart shrewd thing.
Like any tool much depends on the skill or idiocy of the user.
And if you recall all on our free newsletter list and all full members
have their name in the hat for two months free full membership here.
Each month will produce a prize winner.

Highly organised as I am I got round to making the December draw today.
The January winner I sorted too.

So congrats to Dailyr and Anderson whom I contacted earlier about their prize.

Anyhow enough for now

If you do want to get on the train and join up, feel free to do so on our home
page taking advantage of the £1 for two weeks intro offer.

A log in password for the full member area should be emailed automatically
after you join up.

Best Wishes
Mick
Site Admin
www.soccer-tip.co.uk

 

Arc De Triomphe

Mathematician Betting are running a 2 for 1 deal this weekend.

Buy the Saturday Horse Racing Analysis and you get Arc De Triomphe Sunday

as a free special bonus.

There is more info here

Arc De Triomphe

There are some interesting Arc De Triomphe Stats on that page which may be of use to those of you who like to pick your own horses. They are from 2014 but many will still have a degree of validity this year for knocking out and shortlisting.

 

 

The Cambridgeshire – Free Stats Research

The Cambridgeshire runs at Newmarket on Saturday.

My old mate Guy described it as a race that was

“difficult but not impossible”

He ducked the race in 2015 but in 2014 he

used his stats research to pick out two contendors.

He got the 20/1 early price winner and his other was 3rd at 12/ early price.

So “difficult but not impossible” seems apt enough when coming from him.

Anyhow he has posted up for free some of his early statastics research  work for this years race.

See here Cambridgeshire Statistics

Wwll worth a nosey if you have an interest in the race.

 

 

 

 

Shock – Tipster Tips Losers!

There is a silly old joke that goes a bit like:

There was a serious road accident last night.
Investigators at the scene blame mechanical failure.
They say the cause was the nut behind the wheel.

Very similar can happen when a nutty client
joins a long term profitable advisory service.

This page below is worth a read if you
fancy your own head as being one that is
half well screwed on.

Grand National Betting 2016

If you are the sort who likes to put a blindfold on

and throw darts at a copy of the Racing Post to

find a few horses to fill a yankee with then I guess

what I am about to point you too will be of little interest.

 

If on the other hand you respect research and thought

then you may find it of some amusement and assistance

in helping to unravel the winner of the Grand National

Take a look here if so.

Grand National Betting 2016