Wednesday Cheltenham 10 year trends
Wednesday 1.30 – 141st Year of the National Hunt Chase Challenge Cup (Amateurs) POSITIVE TRENDS
| Recent form: 8 of the last 10 winners finished in the first two LTO. |
| Age: 8 of the last 10 winners were aged 7 or 8. |
| Price: 4 of the last 8 winners have been priced 25/1 or bigger. |
| Running style: 7 of the last 10 winners were held up. |
| LTO race: 8 of the last 10 winners raced in a non handicap Novice Chase LTO. |
| LTO course: 5 of the last 10 winners raced at a Grade 1 British track LTO (PROFIT £29.00; ROI +45.3%). |
| Trainers: Jonjo O’Neill has been successful 3 times and Ferdy Murphy twice. |
NEGATIVE TRENDS
| Age: 6 year olds or younger are 1 win from 35 (LOSS £21.00 ROI -63.6%); 9 year olds or older are 1 win from 44 (LOSS £33.00 ROI -75%). |
| Position LTO: Horses that finished 3rd or worse LTO have provided just 2 winners from 107. |
GENERAL STATS
| Favourites (inc. joints): 1 win from 11. |
| Finishing positions of favourites: PU, 8, 2, 1/4, 5, 3, F, 5, 4, 5 |
| Sex of horse: 13 mares have contested the race with 0 wins. However, they have had 3 placed runs. |
| Trends Summary: Recent form is important with the 8 of the last 10 winners finishing first or 2nd LTO, while 7 and 8 year olds have been the most successful age band. Horses that are held up have the best record so “in running” punters take note. Also look for horses that ran in a Novice Chase LTO with preference to any runner that ran at a British Grade 1 track LTO. |
2.05 Neptune Investment Novices’ Hurdle POSITIVE TRENDS
| Recent form: 9 of the last 10 winners won or finished 2nd LTO (7 won). 9 of the last 10 winners had won at least once in their last two starts. |
| Market: Top 5 in betting have provided 9 of the last 10 winners. |
| Last run: All of the last 10 winners had raced within the last 60 days. |
| Age: All of the last 10 winners were aged 5 or 6. |
| Race type LTO: 8 of the last10 winners contested a pattern race LTO. |
NEGATIVE TRENDS
| Market: Horses 6th or bigger in the betting have produced 1 win from 118. |
| Age: Horses aged 7 or older have provided 0 winners from 35 runners. |
GENERAL STATS
| Favourites (inc. joints): 2 wins from 11. |
| Finishing positions of favourites: 1, 4, 2, 2, 5/7, 2, 5, 13, 1, 3 |
| Trends Summary: There are some key stats that have held true for much longer than 10 years. For example, going back to 1982 only one horse that finished 3rd or worse LTO has gone onto win this race. In addition, 16 of the last 18 winners have come from the top five of the betting. Hence, these two stats will help you create your shortlist, and from there focus on 5 and 6yos. From a negative perspective ignore any horse that is coming off a lay off of longer than 2 months. |
2.40 RSA Chase POSITIVE TRENDS
| Recent form: All of the last 10 winners won or finished 2nd LTO (5 won). |
| Season form: All of the last 10 winners had won during the current season. |
| Age: 8 of the last 10 winners were aged 7. |
| Trainers: Both Willie Mullins and Paul Nicholls have saddled 2 winners. |
NEGATIVE TRENDS
| Age: Horses aged 8 or older have provided 1 winner from 42. |
GENERAL STATS
| Favourites: 3 wins from 10 (PROFIT of £0.45; ROI +4.5%). |
| Finishing positions of favourites: 4, 5, 5, 3, 2, PU, 1, 1, 1, 5 |
| Trends Summary: 33 of last 36 winners finished 1st or 2nd LTO so this is the sensible starting point for shortlist purposes. Then make sure that if they finished 2nd LTO they have previously won this season. 7yos have an excellent record and demand very close scrutiny. Favourites have won three of the last four renewals, but don’t rule out bigger prices as double figure priced runners have won 4 of the last 9 renewals (including winners at 25/1 and 33/1). Finally, although it is difficult to quantify stats wise, traditional National Hunt bred horses have done best in this contest over the years. |
3.20 Queen Mother Champion Chase POSITIVE TRENDS
| Recent form: 8 of the last 10 winners won LTO. |
| Market: 7 of the last 10 winners have come from the top 2 of the betting. |
| Festival form: 7 of the last 10 winners had previously won at the Festival. |
| Days since last run: 9 of the last 10 winners had raced within the last 8 weeks. |
| Jockeys: 3 wins apiece for Ruby Walsh and Barry Geraghty. |
| Trainers: Paul Nicholls has won the race 3 times (also won in 1999). |
NEGATIVE TRENDS
| Price: Horses priced 11/1 or bigger have won 1 from 64 (LOSS £47.00; ROI -73.4%). |
GENERAL STATS
| Favourites: 4 wins from 10. |
| Finishing positions of favourites: 3, 1, 1, U, 1, F, F, 2, 1, 4 |
| Breeding: French breds have won 5 races from 32 qualifiers; Irish breds have won 5 races from 43 qualifiers; all other countries combined have won 0 races from 24. |
| Age: 5yos have 1 race from 1 qualifier (SR 100%);6yos have won 2 races from 10 qualifiers (SR 20%); 7yos have won 1 race from 9 qualifiers (SR 11.1%); 8yos have won 3 from 25 qualifiers (SR 12%); 9yos have won 2 from 27 qualifiers (SR 7.4%); 10yo+ have won 1 from 27 qualifiers (SR 3.7%). |
| Trends Summary: Last time out winners coupled with a position in the top 2 in the betting is a useful starting point, while previous winning form at the track / Festival has also been very important. In terms of negatives, only one horse has won at 11-1 or bigger in the last 10 years from 64 qualifiers. |
4.00 Coral Cup Hurdle POSITIVE TRENDS
| Recent form: 6 of the last 10 winners won LTO (6 of the last 8). |
| Form: All of the last 10 winners had won at least once in their last four starts. |
| Market: 7 of the last 10 winners have come from the top 6 of the betting. |
| Age: 9 of the last 10 winners were aged 5 to 7. |
| Breeding: 5 of the last 10 winners have been French bred. They have provided 50% of the winners from only 19% of the total runners. |
NEGATIVE TRENDS
| Weight: Horses carrying 11st 3lb or more have provided just 1 winner from 58 (LOSS £46.00; ROI -79.3%). |
| Age: Horses aged 8 or older have won just 1 from 87 (LOSS £76.00; ROI -87.4%). |
| Course winners: Previous course winners are 1 win from 48. |
GENERAL STATS
| Favourites: 1 win from 10, but with an average field of 27 this should be no surprise. |
| Finishing positions of favourites: 5, 26, 1, 3, 9, F, 16, 18, 10, 12 |
| Trainers: 3 of the last 10 winners were trained in Ireland. |
| Trends Summary: in a race where the field is invariably close to 30 runners, the use of key trends will help narrow the field down to a much smaller group of horses that statistically have the best chance of winning. It is usually best to concentrate on horses aged 7 or younger with preference to 6 and 7 year olds. LTO winners have a good record considering the competitive nature of the race – they have provided 60% of the winners from just 25% of the total runners. It might be difficult to eventually pinpoint one horse that is a clear trends’ pick, but with a big field there is no harm backing 2 or 3 against the field. |
5.15 Weatherbys Championship Bumper POSITIVE TRENDS
| Recent form: 9 of the last 10 winners won LTO (15 out of last 18). |
| Trainers: 8 of the last 10 winners have been trained in Ireland (3 by Willie Mullins – he also won the race in 1996, 1997 and 1998). |
| Market: 8 of the last 10 winners have come from the top 6 of the betting. |
| Breeding: Irish breds have won 8 out of the last 10 races. |
| Previous wins: All of the last 10 winners have previously won a bumper with at least 13 runners. 5 had won a bumper with more than 20 runners. |
NEGATIVE TRENDS
| Age: Horses aged 4 are 1 win from 34. (Going back to 1996 they are 1 win from 53). |
| Breeding: French breds are 0 wins, 1 placed from 20 runners. |
GENERAL STATS
| Favourites: 2 wins and 4 placed from 10. |
| Finishing positions of favourites: 2, 2, 1, 14, 1, 12, 8, 3, 3, 20 |
Trends Summary: a combination of Irish trained Irish bred and a winner LTO and you have a strong candidate for this race. Also look for horses that have previously won a bumper with at least 13 runners. 5yos used to dominate (they won all races from 1996 to 2004), but it is more open these days age wise. Indeed, Cue Card won for the 4yos last year breaking a run of 51 consecutive losers stretching back to 1996.
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Dave Renham is a uk Horse Racing Researcher
For more info Click Here ==> Horse Racing Statistics
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