Big race 10 year trends for Friday
1.25 Doncaster – Flying Childers – 5f (Group 2) 2yo
POSITIVE TRENDS
| Favourites: 4 wins from 10 for a profit of £2.33 (ROI +23.3%). |
| Market: All of the last 10 winners came from the top 5 of the betting. |
| Price: All of the last 10 winners have been priced 11/1 or shorter. |
| Price: 6 of the last 10 winners have been priced between 4/1 and 11/1. Backing all 61 qualifiers would have produced a profit of £15.00 (ROI +44.1%). |
| LTO market: 8 of the last 10 winners were in the top 3 in the betting LTO. |
| LTO course: All of the last 10 winners raced at a Grade 1 track LTO. |
| Jockeys: Frankie Dettori has had 3 wins from 7 rides. |
NEGATIVE TRENDS
| Price: Horses priced 12/1 or bigger have produced 0 winners from 63. |
| Maidens: 14 maidens have contested the race but they have provided 0 winners and just 1 placed runner. |
| LTO class: Horses that raced in class 3 or lower LTO have provided 0 winners from 28. |
| Career starts: Horses with 7 or more career starts have provided just 1 winner from 27 for a loss of £18.00 (ROI -66.7%). |
| Beaten distance LTO: Horses that were beaten by more than 5 lengths LTO have provided just 1 winner from 22. |
GENERAL STATS
| Position LTO: Horses that won LTO have a won 5 of the 10 races but backing them would have produced a loss of £9.42 (ROI -25.5%). |
| Sex: Colts / geldings have won 5 races from 68 qualifiers (SR 7.4%); fillies have won 5 from 45 (SR 11.1%). |
Trends analysis: The best starting point is to focus on the top five of the betting as they have provided all of the winners. Pay special attention to horses that raced at a Grade 1 track last time as again they have provided all of the winners. In terms of negatives it looks best to avoid maidens, horses that raced in class 3 or lower LTO, and any horse that has had 7 or more career starts.
2.25 Doncaster – Doncaster Cup – 2 miles 2f (Group 2) 3yo+
There was dead heat in 2004 – hence there were effectively 16 winners. It should also been noted that this race was upgraded from Group 3 status in 2003 to a Group 2.
POSITIVE TRENDS
| Position LTO: Horses that won LTO have a good record with 5 wins from 15 qualifiers for a profit of £13.85 (ROI +92.3%). |
| Market: 9 of the 11 winners came from the top four in the betting. |
| Market: 2nd favourites have done well with 4 wins and a profit of £3.75 (ROI +31.3%). |
| Price: 9 of the 11 winners were priced 15/2 or shorter. |
| Price LTO: 10 of the 11 winners were priced 13/2 or shorter LTO. |
| Market LTO: All of the 11 winners were from the top 4 in the betting LTO. |
| Course LTO: 7 of the last 11 winners ran at York LTO – all of them ran in the Lonsdale Cup. |
NEGATIVE TRENDS
| Favourites (inc. joints): 2 wins from 10 for a loss of £5.03 (ROI -50.3%). |
| Price: Horses priced 16/1 or bigger have provided 0 winners from 20. |
| Distance LTO: Horses that raced over 1m 6f or shorter LTO have provided 0 winners from 20. |
GENERAL STATS
| Age: 3yos have provided 1 winner from 6 runners (SR 16.7%); 4yos have provided 3 winners from 19 (SR 15.8%), 5yos have provided 2 winners from 21 (SR 9.5%); 6yos have provided 1 winner from 17 (SR 5.9%); 7yos+ have provided 4 winners from 18 (SR 22.2%). |
Trends analysis: Last time out winners have a very good record and require close scrutiny. Although favourites have a relatively poor record, the market tends to get this race right, while LTO market influences are important as well. Horses that ran in the Lonsdale Cup LTO at York have a good record too. In terms of age, no major biases although horses 7 years old and older have done surprisingly well.
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Dave Renham is a uk Horse Racing Researcher
For more info Click Here ==> Horse Racing Statistics
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