Horse Race Report

Horse Race Report provides detailed ten year stats and trends for about 100 of the years major handicap races. In addition to the stats and trends day of race emails advise which horses best fit the lessons of history. Some good FREE stuff available. Worth a nosy if you are into betting on the horses.For More info click here –

Bet Alchemist

A uk horse racing tipping service witha good long term profit record.
Nicky who runs the service says that his key mantras are

Find Value or do not Bet
Know the horses you are betting on
Target the Better races (certain to be trying)
Ground Conditions have a huge bearing on horses performance
Jumps, Is the horse a natural jumper?

Now proofing to ProGambler.co.uk

For More Info Click Here ==> Bet Alchemist

Lingfield Betting Today

Lingfield 1.55

TEMPLE ROAD 4/1

Statistically this is a horrible little race and one
that will be affected by the draw as the 3 market
leaders have the worst draws 10-11-12 so much
will be down to tactics and a bit of luck. I think
that TEMPLE ROAD is the one because having
watched his recent runs its clear he still has a
ton in hand and I don’t believe he is finished yet.

Racing Post Odds

4/1 Temple Road, 5/1 Black Cadillac, 13/2 Welease Bwian
7/1 Speak The Truth, 8/1 Rich Again, 9/1 Jack My Boy
9/1 Waabel, 10/1 Belle Bayardo, 10/1 Frognal
14/1 My Own Way Home, 16/1 Desert Strike, 25/1 Putin.

* This is a 6f handicap for 0-74 rated horses
* I have been banging on about the 6f draw here
* There have been 65 handicaps here since 2012
* Horses drawn 11 or more are 1-72 in these 64 races
* That was 0-71 but yesterday a Stall 11 won
* It was a falsely run race and that wouldnt put me off
* I would still much rather avoid the higher stalls
* BLACK CADILLAC has the worst draw in Stall 12
* He won last week and has a sound chance otherwise
* I just cant be with a horse from that stall at the moment
* RICH AGAIN is Drawn 11 also failing that statistic
* The rest of the race is a statistical mess
* No runners have absences almost all run within 2 weeks
* No runners come up in distance either
* There is a shortage of fillies in the race
* Luck will be an important factor here

TEMPLE ROAD won last time and has recent form
figures of W W 3 W. The defeat two runs ago was a
strange one. He looked to win easily and went 1.01
in running but somehow ended up on the far rail and
got caught. He did win last time and watching it on
video he had a ton in hand and wasnt even extended.
This horse still looks very well treated. With a good
passage he could outclass these. The problem is
that whilst the draw stats say avoid horses drawn 11
or more TEMPLE ROAD is drawn 10 and thats a bit
higher than I’d like. Visual impressions of him tells
me to ignore that. This looks a horse that should win.

Selection

TEMPLE ROAD 4/1 William Hill    Bet365   Tote

————————————————————–

Provided by www.mathematician-betting.co.uk

 

Racing Tip For Kempton

Our old fried Guy Ward aka The Mathematician
is back with us again with his insight on one of
this afternoons races at Kempton.

One thing I know Guy is pround about is the fact that
he has clients who have been with him not for months
but for years and years and years.

This is almost unheard of in the racing tipster world.

If at all interested in his service proper contact
me here at sports-betting-blog and I will see if I can
wrangle a bit of an introducty discount of deal for you.

Over to Guy for today’s horse racing tip

============================

Lingfield has been abandoned but I suppose it
is a bonus that Kempton has survived. That is
the only English card today. For paying clients
I have previewed the first six races there only
leaving the finale alone a race that looks a bit
too dangerous.

I have three staked bets for them today.
A short price – A Medium price – And a Big Price

Here on the free horse betting blog I will stick up
for you the medium price option.

Kempton   1.45

9/4 Glastonberry, 11/4 Climaxfortackle, 4/1 Big Sylv
8/1 Amosite, 8/1 Chambles, 10/1 Zing Wing
12/1 Dancing Welcome, 25/1 Ishiamiracle.

This is a fillies handicap over 7f. Not too many of
these races are run at this time of year and that
makes it harder to judge things like age. So far
none of the races went to horses aged 7 or over
so both DANCING WELCOME and  AMOSITE
are unlike any winners. I would not trust such a
stat based on a small sample size but they did
not attract me anyway. ZING WING doesnt feel
safe with his absence. ISHIAMIRACLE is out of
form. I see a strong case for GLASTONBERRY
who’s been in fine form but she has very little in
the way of backclassbackclass and she has to
give weight to horses who have achieved more
than her. CHAMBLES isn’t out of this with fair
excuses last time. BIG SYLV’s profile is good
enough to consider and CLIMAXFORTACKLE
also comes out well and has a good recent run.

Conclusion

Given the prices I originally thought  there was a case to make
about overlooking Glastonberry for an alternative
each way bet but a non runner has ruined the each way frame of the race.
Much depends on how BIG SYLV
copes down in trip and on her first run on a right
handed track and how CLIMAXFORTACKLE gets
on going up in distance. I just prefer the latter.

Selection

* Win CLIMAXFORTACKLE 3/1 Victor ChandlerStan James

Guy Ward

www.Mathematician-Betting.co.uk

Cheltenham Ten Year Trends

One of the many componants that makes up Dave Renham’s excellent RacingTrends service are his Big Race Trends reports.
Typically these cover several of the major races each Saturday but he also provides them for major meetings and festivals.
These are in addition to his normal daily high detail racing stats reports.
In short these big race trends reports examine individual races in detail in order to try and identify any key elements of form that will gives us clues as to value or likely winners in today’s races.
Today Dave has looked at several races at Cheltenham from a ten year trends approach.
 
1.55 Cheltenham – Albert Bartlett Novices Hurdle (registered as the Bristol Hurdle) – 3m (Grade 2)
 
POSITIVE TRENDS
Favourites (inc. joints): There have been 8 winning favourites (including joints) from 13 for a profit of £7.71 (ROI +59.3%).
Position LTO: 9 of the last 10 winners finished 1st or 2nd LTO.
Price: 9 of the last 10 winners have been priced 4/1 or shorter.
Days off track: 7 of the last 10 winners had been off the track for between 20 and 27 days.
Price LTO: 8 of the last 10 winners were priced 4/1 or shorter LTO (all 10 winners were 15/2 or shorter LTO).
LTO Favourites: Horses that started favourite LTO have provided 6 winners from 26 runners for a profit of £6.63 (ROI +25.5%).
LTO course: Horses that raced at Cheltenham last time out have a good record with 5 of the 15 qualifiers going onto win this race.
Trainers: 2 wins from 4 for Alan King.
Jockets: 3 wins from 5 for Tony Mc Coy.
NEGATIVE TRENDS
Race type LTO: Horses that raced in a handicap LTO have a poor record with 0 wins from 14.
GENERAL STATS
Age: 4 years olds have won 2 races from 7 qualifiers (SR 28.6%),5 year olds have won 3 races from 33 qualifiers (SR 9.1%); 6 year olds have won 4 races from 19 qualifiers (SR 21.1%); 7 year olds and older have won 1 race from 14 qualifiers (SR 7.1%).
Trends analysis: A race where the positive trends are key. Favourites have an excellent record and hence it is not surprising to see horses that finished 1st or 2nd LTO doing well also. Horses that ran at Cheltenham LTO should be respected and also look for horses that were fancied LTO – LTO favourites have done especially well. In terms of fitness, horses off the track for between 20 and 27 days have done especially well.
 
 
 
3.05 Cheltenham – Stan James.com International Hurdle – 2 miles 1f (Grade 2)
POSITIVE TRENDS
Favourites (inc. joints): There have been 7 winning favourites (including joints) from 12 for a profit of £5.69 (ROI +47.4%).
Position LTO: All of the last 10 winners finished in the first three LTO. 7 won LTO.
Recent wins: All of the last 10 winners had won at least once in their last four starts.
LTO course: Horses that raced at Cheltenham last time out have a good record producing 6 winners from 20 for a profit of £33.80 (+169%).
LTO race type: Horses that ran in a handicap LTO have provided 6 winners from 24 for a profit of £23.80 (ROI +99.2%).
Days since last run: All of the last 10 winners have run within the past 28 days.
Trainers: 3 wins from 7 for Philip Hobbs; 2 wins from 7 for Nicky Henderson.
NEGATIVE TRENDS
Breeding: Irish bred horses have managed just 2 wins from 30 for a loss of £23.75 (ROI -79.2%).
Beaten distance LTO: Horses that were beaten by more than 10 lengths LTO have provided 0 winners from 17.
Position LTO: Horses that finished 4th or worse last time out have produced 0 winners from 21 qualifiers.
GENERAL STATS
Age: 4 years olds have won 3 races from 17 qualifiers (SR 17.7%),5 year olds have won 3 races from 18 qualifiers (SR 16.7 %); 6 year olds have won 1 race from 9 qualifiers (SR 11.1%); 7 year olds have won 2 races from 13 qualifiers (SR 15.4%); 8 year olds and older have won 1 race from 16 qualifiers (SR 6.3%).
Trends analysis: once again there are plenty of positive stats. A run in the past 4 weeks has been crucial as has a position LTO in the top three (with a strong preference for LTO winners. Horses that ran at Cheltenham last time out have a very good record and this is a clear plus, while a run in a handicap LTO has also been a positive. From a negative perspective, horses beaten by 10 or more lengths LTO look worth avoiding, while Irish bred runners have generally struggled.
 
3.40 Cheltenham – Relkeel hurdle – 2 miles 4f 110yds (Grade 2)
POSITIVE TRENDS
Market: 9 of the last 10 winners came from the top three in the betting.
Price: All of the last 10 winners were priced 9/1 or shorter.
Position LTO: Horses that finished first or second LTO have provided 6 of the last 10 winners for a break even situation.
Course LTO: All of last 10 winners raced at a Grade 1 track LTO.
Breeding: 6 of the last 10 winners were French bred.
Running style: 9 of the last 10 winners raced up with or close to the pace.
Previous Cheltenham run: 9 of the last 10 winners had all had experience of Cheltenham.
Trainers: 3 wins from 6 for Alan King.
NEGATIVE TRENDS
Upped in class: Horses that were upped in class from their most recent run have a moderate record with 3 wins from 29.
GENERAL STATS
Favourites (inc. joints): There have been 4 winning favourites (including joints) from 11 for a loss of £3.00.
Age: 4 year olds have won 4 races from 19 qualifiers (SR 21.1%); 5 year olds have won 2 races from 17 qualifiers (SR 11.8%); 6 year olds have won 2 races from 17 qualifiers (SR 11.8%); 7 year olds have won 2 races from 11 qualifiers (SR 18.2%).
Trends analysis: The market has been a good guide in this race with the top three in the betting producing 90% of the winners. French breds have done well while a run at a Grade 1 track LTO has been of paramount importance. Trainer Alan King has done very well with 3 wins, while for in running punters hold up horses have performed poorly. In terms of age 4yos may have a slight edge but it is a little unclear.
 
 

www.RacingTrends.co.uk

 

Ayr Gold Cup

The Ayr Gold Cup

The Ayr Gold Cup is too difficult to consider for a strong bet.

I am putting up my thoughts today on it however not because
it is the strongest advice I have for full members today
but beacuse it is the race a few of you have asked about.

I have shortlisted six and it was Alben Star at 20/1 that did best on my angles.

For live market odds on this race see here ==> Live Odds

* The Ayr Gold Cup is a 6f Handicap
* There has been 19 renewals of this race since 1993

* I think the following statistics are worth following

* Horses from 5f races struggled and should be opposed
* None of todays 5f horses have good profiles so these are out
* BOASTFUL – CHEVIOT -BORDERLESCOTT

* Horses aged 8 or more have yet to win in decades
* JOHANNES – REGAL PARADE fail that

* Horses aged 6 or more won just 3 renewals since the 1980′s
* None were absent as long as WAFFLE or CAPTAIN RAMIUS

* Horses aged 6 that won all ran within 17 days since the 1980′s
* THE CHEKA – BRAE HILL fail that

* BEACON LODGE is underraced for a 7yo

* MISS WORK OF ART is underraced for a 3yo filly

* No exposed horse won absent 7 + weeks
* RODRIGO DE TORRES fails that

* Avoid horses aged 5 or more absent 7 weeks or more
* MIRZA – TARIQ TOO fails that

* Horses winning last time absent a month are wrong
* PINTURA has that to overcome that

* MORACHE MUSIC – Shaky and unsafe absent 70 days
* Found a 4yo like him with a stone less weight
* That winner didnt come from a Group race like him

* DOC HAY is 5 and won last time out
* MAAREK  is 5 and won last time out
* Horses aged 5 doing that were 0-22
* Both are hard to match in all similar races too
* DOC HAY has a career high mark to overcome as well
* MAAREK has ran just once in 73 days
* He has to do that carrying a massive weight as well

* HAWKEYETHENOO comes from a Group 1 race
* The 2007 winner did that but he was an un exposed 4yo
* HAWKEYETHENOO is exposed and 6 years old
* No other horses won similar races from Group races
* HAWKEYETHENOO also has a career high mark
* He’s raced just once in 49 days as well and Stall 3 isnt ideal

* SHOLAAN – Difficult task as a 3yo absent 84 days
* He has 4 runs this year and no 3yo won this race like him
* I can find  a 3yo winning absent 78 days
* That was 2007 Silver Cup winner Utmost Respect
* He was lighter raced though and won Group 2 races
* SHOLAAN – Not quite right for me
* Also have to consider stall 2 as low numbers are unsafe

S h o r t l i s t

* PEARL ICE is a lightly raced 4yo absent 84 days
* Two Ayr Gold Cup winners were not unlike him
* They had 7 week absences in 1996 and 2001
* PEARL ICE does have 12 weeks though
* Hard to know whether 84 days is too long or not

* OUR JONATHAN won this last year from the same stall
* He has the same absence and comes from the same trial race
* The 2010 winner was an exposed 5yo absent 28 days
* OUR JONATHAN only has a week more off the track
* I think he has enough to shortlist
* He does have far fewer runs this year
* There are more doubts about his current form as well

* COLONEL MAK is an exposed 5yo absent a month
* I would have much prefered a run within a month
* I could overlook 35 days but exposed 5yo’s rarely win this
* That said the 2010 winner was an exposed 5yo
* He was absent 28 days only a week more so he’s in
* COLONEL MAK has a career high mark though

* SHROPSHIRE is an unexposed 4yo from 7f
* I like that profile as he has a recent run
* I found a couple of similar winners in other races
* I just wish he had more than 1 run in 49 days

* LOUIS THE PIOUS is an unexposed 4yo
* He has a months break and Class 2 form
* I can live with that profile
* The 2007 Silver Cup winner was like him

* ALBEN STAR is an unexposed 4yo
* He comes from 6f and has Class 2 form
* ALBEN STAR hasnt raced in a Month either
* Thats a fine profile as the 1996 and 2001 winners shared it
* He’s been Running well in big handicaps all year
* ALBEN STAR looks the best profile to me

Selection

ALBEN STAR 20/1

Each Way at 20/1 paying 1/4 for 5 places at Bet365
Same available at Sky and Stan James but Bet365 will give you best odds guaranteed
==================================

This was provided by Guy from Mathematician Betting

To visit Guy’s site click here ==> Horse Racing Tipster

 

Racing Tip For Newcastle

Over to Guy from the Mathematician Betting Site for today’s free horse racing tip

—————————–

N e w c a s t l e  3.05

For Live Odds See

http://mathematician-betting.bestbetting.com/horse-racing/2012-07-28/newcastle/15-05/betting/

* The Beeswing is a 7f Handicap for 0-91 rated horses
* The Draw may well play a big part in this race
* Since 2011 there are 17 handicaps here with 9 + runners
* Horses drawn 1-2 had a 0-30 record
* Horses drawn 1-2-3 had a 1-46 record
* The winners had the following stall numbers
* 11 11 5 7 13 11 10 7 13 13 13 10 6 3 12 4 8
* I think you want a high draw based on handicaps here
* ROKER PARK – I dont like his draw in stall 1
* ROKER PARK is an exposed 7yo from a 6f handicap
* Similar horses had a dissapointing 4-145 record
* All 4 winners had 6 or more runs that year
* ROKER PARK only has 5 runs this year
* Only 1 carried more than 9st as well
* I wouldnt hang him for that profile but its not strong
* Certainly not strong enough to ignore his draw
* POLISH WORLD is an exposed 8 year old
* He comes from 7f and has no form beyond Class 3
* There were 3 winners like that but not like him
* None were beaten more than 4 lengths last time
* POLISH WORLD was beaten over 9 lengths
* That makes him unsafe and I have other issues
* This is a career high mark and he is 0-9 in this Class
* As he is Drawn 2 he has a lot to prove
* Newcastle have had 44 of these 7f races in July-August
* Relevant thas at all 44 winners had 3 + runs that year
* Those with 1-2 runs that year were just 0-48
* TIGER REIGNS has to go exposed and 1 run this season
* DUBAWI SOUND also has 1 run this year absent 98 days
* I looked at 4 year olds like him
* I found a 1-23 record with 1 run this year and a break
* That winner had 9 runs and he has just four
* That winner had Listed Class and he doesnt
* DUBAWI SOUND is therefore quite unsafe
* Mentioned Newcastle had 45 of these races
* None of the 45 winners had under 5 starts like him
* DUBAWI SOUND doesnt offer me enough
* TED4S BROTHER – Unsafe profile and out of the weights
* Poor last run and not much backclass to bounce back
* NO POPPY is an exposed 4yo filly
* There were just a handful of those types winning
* None were beaten anywhere near as far as her
* She’s never won from this mark or in this class
* KING OF EDEN is 6 and won a 7f handicap last time
* I looked at exposed 6 year olds doing that
* Slightly surprised to find just a 1-35 record
* That winner had more races that season
* That winner was also a female unlike him
* She also ran within a week as well
* KING OF EDEN doesnt come out that well for me
* He’s just won off 79 and 82
* May be asking a lot for him to win off 90 today
* Especially in a Class he hasnt won in before
* STEVIE THUNDER is an exposed 7 year old
* He was beaten more than 10 lengths last time
* Looked at similar 7yo’s with 1-2-3-4 runs that year
* I found 1 similar winner to STEVIE THUNDER
* That horse had 9st 6lbs some 8lbs less
* STEVIE THUNDER has only got an average profile
* He hasnt won from this rating before either

S h o r t l i s t

* FATHSTA won a claimer recently
* I cant match him exactly from a Claimer as a 7yo
* Prepared to forgive him that as he does have positives
* Fit and running well and he has dropped in the weights
* FATHSTA I would see as a neutral profile
* I would worry about this stiff track suiting him

* AL MUHEER – Lots to like and a pleasing profile
* He may be a 7yo but he can win from this mark
* Hard to catch right he must be kept on side

Selection

AL MUHEER 8/1

Win Bet

Newmarket 3.20 – Unusual race but I dont like the favourite
Newmarket 3.20 – PRICELESS JEWEL is up in trip from 6f -7f
Newmarket 3.20 – None did that without 7 runs and 4 that year
Newmarket 3.20 – PRICELESS JEWEL has 4 and 2 this year
Newmarket 3.20 – I would oppose her

Ascot 3.25 – MAUREEN is the clear statistical choice

7/1 widely available but a bit more on Betfair

Ten Year Trends For Ascot On SATURDAY

Ten Year Trends For Ascot On SATURDAY

The research below was provided by Dave Renham of the www.RacingTrends.co.uk site.

Data is based on the last ten years of his racing database research.

These trends reports are just a little extra he provides his clients with for major races and meetings throughout the year.

His day to day messages are also stat packed and a great source of informative information for any thinking punter.

See an old sample at http://www.racingtrends.co.uk/racing/sample-full-member-message/

NB If interested in a first month of membership at RacingTrends for a cost of £0 to permit you to assess the service provided drop me a quick note and I will try and sort that for you.

Now over to Dave

===================================================

1.35 Ascot – Longines Handicap – 7f (class 3 handicap) 3yo+

POSITIVE TRENDS

Price: Horses priced between 9/1 and 20/1 have provided 8 of the last 10 winners.
Position LTO: Horses that finished 3rd to 6th LTO have provided 9 of the last 10 winners.
Days since last run: 7 of the last 10 winners had raced within the last 17 days.
Price LTO: 6 of the last 10 winners were priced 9/1 or bigger LTO.
Jockeys: Miss S Brotherton has won the race twice and been placed on one other occasion.

NEGATIVE TRENDS

Favourites (inc. joints): 0 wins from 13.
Market: Just 1 win from 32 for horses from the top three of the betting.
Weight rank: Horses from the top 8 of the weights have provided just 3 winners from 82 for a loss of £50.00 (ROI -61%).
Days since last run: Horses off the track for over 5 weeks have provided 0 winners from 32 runners.
Position LTO: Horses that won or finished 2nd LTO have provided 0 winners from 49.
LTO race: 22 horses raced in a non handicap LTO and all have lost.

GENERAL STATS

Age: 3yos have provided 0 winners from 17 (SR 0%); 4yos have provided 6 winners from 59 (SR 10.2%); 5yos have provided 2 winners from 47 (SR 4.3%); 6yos+ have provided 2 winners from 84 (SR 2.4%).

Trends analysis: In recent years it has been worthwhile to look for horses priced 9/1 to 20/1 as they have provided 8 of the last 10 winners. Indeed you could have made a profit by backing all runners in this price bracket. The top three in the betting have a dreadful record and there has been value to look beyond these runners. Last time out winners / runners up also have performed poorly with no success from 49 runners in the past 10 renewals.  4 year olds have the best record age wise, while horses aged 6 or older look worth avoiding. All in all this is a typically open ladies’ handicap.


3.20 Ascot – Summer Mile Stakes (Group 2) 4yo+

POSITIVE TRENDS

Market: 2nd favourites have won 5 of the last 10 races for a profit of £10.38 (ROI +94.3%).
Market: 9 of the last 10 winners came from second to fifth in the betting.
Position LTO: 6 of the last 10 winners finished 1st or 2nd LTO. Backing all 32 runner would have produced a profit of £15.63 (ROI +48.8%).
Price: All of the last 10 winners have been priced 11/1 or shorter.
Breeding: American bred runners are rare but they have secured 3 wins from just 13 runners for a profit of £11.00 (ROI +84.6%).
Class LTO: 6 of the last 10 winners ran in a Group 1 race LTO.
Price LTO: 6 of the last 10 winners were priced 9/1 or bigger LTO.
Course LTO: 8 of the last 10 winners ran at a Grade 1 track LTO; one other winner raced at Sha Tin LTO (the main track in Hong Kong).
Days since last run: 5 of the last 10 winners had been off the track for at least 8 weeks.

NEGATIVE TRENDS

Favourites: 1 win from 10 for a loss of £7.13 (ROI -71.3%).
Price: Horses priced 12/1 or bigger have provided 0 winners from 34.

GENERAL STATS

Trainers: No trainer has won the race more than once in the past 10 years.
Age: 4yos have provided 5 winners from 41 (SR 12.2%); 5yos have provided 2 winners from 22 (SR 9.1%); 6yos have provided 2 winners from 12 (SR 16.7%); 7yos+ have provided 1 winner from 11 (SR 9.1%).

Trends analysis: This race has not been a good one for favourites, although with second favourites having a good record it is probably just a statistical blip. There are several positive trends to note such as horses that ran in a Group 1 race LTO – they have provided 60% of the winners from only 28% of the total runners. Likewise horses off the track for 8 weeks or more have an excellent record – they have provided 50% of the winners from only 16% of the total runners. In terms of age 4yos have won the most races, but they have provided the most runners – essentially there seems to be no age bias.

4.35 Ascot – King George & Queen Elizabeth Stakes – 1m4f (Group 1) 3yo+

POSITIVE TRENDS

Favourites: 6 wins from 10 for a profit of £3.97 (ROI +39.7%).
Market: The top four in the betting have provided all of the last 10 winners.
Price: All of the winners have been priced 13/2 or shorter.
Price: Horses priced 5/2 or shorter have provided 6 winners from just 9 runners.
Breeding: 9 of the last 10 winners were Irish bred.
Position LTO: 8 of the last 10 winners finished in the first two LTO (6 won).
Course LTO: 4 of the last 5 winners raced at Royal Ascot LTO.
Trainers: Sir Michael Stoute has had 3 wins, Aidan O’Brien and John Oxx 2 a piece.

NEGATIVE TRENDS

Price: Horses priced 7/1 or bigger have produced 0 winners from 53.
Market: Horses 5th or higher in the betting market have provided 0 winners from 45.
Breeding: Just 1 win from 21 for British bred runners.

GENERAL STATS

Age: 3yos have provided 2 winners from 10 (SR 20%); 4yos have provided 8 winners from 40 (SR 20%); 5yos+ have provided 0 winners from 35 (SR 0%).

Trends analysis: This has been a market driven race with favourites having an excellent record, and the shorter the price the better. Horses priced 5/2 or shorter have a excellent record of 6 wins from only 9 qualifiers. Irish bred runners have done well as have Irish trainers, while horses that raced at Royal Ascot LTO have a good recent record. A win LTO has also been a positive. 4 year olds have dominated in recent years with not many 3 year olds prepared to take on their elders. 5yos have a very poor recent record.

www.RacingTrends.co.uk

Penalty Carriers in Uk Horse Racing

Horse Racing Penalty Carriers

In uk horse racing terms “a penalty” is extra weight
a horse must carry.

Normally it is applied if a horse has a second race
a few days after a win.

The official handicapper may not have had time to
reassess the horses official handicap mark
and due to the lack of time simply forces the horse
to carry penalty weight next time out.

It is I guess a system intended to stop
horses winning several times in very quick succession
from an over lenient handicap mark before the handicapper
has a chance to do his calculations and re assess the official handicap mark.

Penalty carries however have two obvious things going for them.
Having just won a  race they are obviously

- in good form

- have proven ability.

You can’t just back them all blindly and expect to make a profit however.
But with a bit of research you can certainly find past profitable niches
within penalty carriers.

See the article below for further reading.

Penalty Carriers

.

A Poor Saturday

Our usual free horse racing tip on a Saturday from Guy at www.mathematician-betting.co.uk

==========================

There is an Intolerable ammount of Racing today and
on days like this I never finish the messages the clock
finishes me. I could have stretched two extra messages
from the races I havent had a chance to look at. There
are two pieces in the Racing Post about how the racing
is particularly difficult today as it’s dominated by large
field handicaps. Unusual for them to acknowledge it but
it’s true. It is Intolerable and any bets and races finished
will be down to a lot of luck. Might be a frustrating and
a bit untidy today. I fear for anyone betting through it all
and rain and non runners make it more dangerous.

I have no firm properly staked advised bet today
for clients or for free blog readers.
You don’t come out ahead in the long run betting
hard when conditions do not suit.

Need something however today..well ponder the below

D o n c a s t e r   2.05

9/4 Mawasem, 9/2 Grey Mirage, 6/1 Warfare, 8/1 Assizes
10/1 Gold City, 10/1 Shamaal Nibras, 10/1 Well Painted
12/1 Chapter Seven, 14/1 Mister Music, 16/1 Kickingthelilly.

* This is a Class 2  3yo handicap over 8f
* These races are rare and a tiny sample size
* WELL PAINTED – Dont like him from 7f maiden
* Not with just the single run
* GOLD CITY – All seasonal debutants were lighter raced
* KICKINGTHELILLY is too exposed
* MISTER MUSIC – Surely beaten too far 7 days ago
* The above horses are ones I’d avoid
* ASSIZES – Unsafe well beaten on seasonal debut
* SHAMAAL NIBRAS – Not convinced and bad draw

Shortlist

* GREY MIRAGE – An option but don’t like the absence
* MAWASEM – I dont like the record of 3yo maidens much
* None have won with just 2 runs or from 7f races
* He has to be a positive but I cant match him to a winner
* WARFARE – I can forgive him a defeat at York
* CHAPTER SEVEN – Better than he showed last time
* Comes from a hot race where he never had a good position
* Nothing went right and hampered and eased once beaten
* CHAPTER SEVEN could run better than expected

Selection

CHAPTER SEVEN 12/1 Each  Way
at Betfred Bet365 Coral PaddyPower