Big race 10 year trends for Chester (Weds)
Weds 2.20 Chester – Cheshire Oaks – Listed (1m 3½f) 3yo fillies
POSITIVE TRENDS
| Favourites(inc. joints): 7 wins from 11 for a profit of £11.75 (ROI +106.8%). |
| Draw: 8 of the last 10 winners have been drawn in the bottom 4 stalls. |
| Career runs: All of the last 10 winners have raced 4 or fewer times in their careers. |
| Race type LTO: 7 of the last 10 winners ran in a maiden LTO. |
| Position LTO: 8 of the last 10 winners finished 1st or 2nd LTO. |
| Price LTO: 6 of the last 10 winners were priced 5/2 or shorter LTO. |
| Trainers: 2 wins each for Aidan O’Brien and Marcus Tregoning. |
NEGATIVE TRENDS
| Price: Horses priced 10/1 or bigger have produced just 1 winner from 40 qualifiers for a loss of £25.00 (ROI -62.5%). |
| Days off track: Horses returning to the track after a break of 6 weeks or more have produced just 1 winner from 33 for a loss of £29.75 (ROI -90.2%). |
| Beaten distance LTO: Horses beaten 4 lengths or more LTO have provided just 1 winner from 25 for a loss of £20.50 (ROI -82.0%). |
| Course LTO: Horses that raced at Newmarket LTO have provided 0 winners from 16. |
| Draw: Horses drawn 7 or higher have provided 0 winners from 23. |
GENERAL STATS
| Distance LTO: Horses that raced over 10f or more LTO have provided 6 winners from 32 (SR 18.8%); horses that raced over 9f or less LTO have provided 4 winners from 50 (SR 8.0%). |
| Trends analysis: Some solid trends here – favourites have an excellent record, while the draw has been important with 8 of the 10 winners drawn 4 or lower. One should eliminate any horse that has run more than 4 times in their career and take note of any runners that ran in a maiden LTO. LTO form has been important with LTO winners and runners up providing 80% of the winners. |
Weds 3.30 Chester – Stellar Group handicap class 2 (5f) 4yo+
POSITIVE TRENDS
| Draw: The six lowest drawn horses have won 9 of the last 10 races. These runners have made up 44% of all the runners, but produced 90% of the winners. |
| Market: Horses 3rd to 6th in the betting have provided 6 winners. Backing all such qualifiers would have produced a profit of £18.00 (ROI +42.9%). |
| Price: 9 of the last 11 winners have been priced between 11/2 and 16/1. |
| Running style: 8 of the last 10 winners raced up with or close to the pace, with 5 runners “making all”. |
NEGATIVE TRENDS
| Favourites (inc. joints): 1 win from 11 for a loss of £7.25 (ROI -65.9%). |
| Draw: There have been 57 horses drawn 9 or higher and all have lost. Indeed only 1 of them has managed to place. |
| Position LTO: 15 horses have come into the race having won LTO but all have been beaten. |
| Market LTO: Horses from the top 4 of the betting LTO have 0 winners from 46. |
| Price: Horses priced 20/1 or bigger have produced 0 wins from 53 runners. |
| Class LTO: 17 horses raced in class 4 or lower LTO and all have lost. |
GENERAL STATS
| Age: 4yos have won 2 races from 36 qualifiers (SR 5.6%) 5yos have won 3 races from 39 qualifiers (SR 7.7%); 6yos have won 2 races from 28 (SR 7.1%); 7yo+ have won 3 from 34 (SR 8.8%). |
| Trends analysis: This race is a race with some good trends both positive and negative. The draw at Chester is very well documented, but over 5f it is extremely important and the 6 lowest draws have dominated this contest over the past 10 years. Hence you need to focus on these draws ideally with a horse that is likely to lead or race very close to the pace. Price wise, outsiders priced 20/1 or bigger have a poor record, while at the other end of the spectrum favourites have performed below expectations. In terms of age there seems no clear bias. |
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Dave Renham is a uk Horse Racing Researcher
For more info Click Here ==> Horse Racing Statistics
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