The Cheltenham Festival is looming and I have for you today
a bit of an advance early look at the Cheltenham Gold Cup from
Guy the horse racing analyst over at www.Mathematician-Betting.co.uk.
FUTURE BETTING ANGLES Today I wanted to make some progress On the Cheltenham Gold Cup Which is now just 16 days away Cheltenham Gold Cup 9/2 Clan Des Obeaux 9/1 Presenting Percy 6/1 Native River 11/1 Kemboy 14/1 Might Bite 16/1 Thistlecrack 20/1 Al Boum Photo 25/1 Road To Respect 33/1 Elegant Escape 33/1 Shattered Love If you go back to 1999 19 renewals 17 of the 19 winners Shared the following profile 1) Under 10 years old 2) Under 15 Chase runs 3) Absent more than 4 weeks 4) Coming from a Graded race 5) Starting under 10/1 last time 6) Under 21 lifetime runs 7) Starting 20/1 or shorter 19 renewals since 1999 75 horses had this profile 17 of these won the race Horses with this profile Presenting Percy Shattered Love Elegant Escape Kemboy Just looking at that shortlist KEMBOY would be my preference I would not use this profile religiously It would only take minor adjustments And I could add other horses to the list Take the example of Al Boum Photo Just ran in Listed class not Graded class I could easily forgive a few horses angles Road To Respect could have got there Anyway Wanted to have a look at the main runners Listed some of their positives + negatives And see where we ended up at the end 9/2 Clan Des Obeaux 9/1 Presenting Percy 6/1 Native River 11/1 Kemboy 14/1 Might Bite 16/1 Thistlecrack 20/1 Al Boum Photo 25/1 Road To Respect 33/1 Elegant Escape 33/1 Shattered Love Number of Chase runs 22 Frodon 21 Bristol De Mai 18 Definitly Red 15 Native River 15 Road To Respect 14 Anibale Fly 13 Might Bite 13 Clan Des Obeaux 11 Elegant Escape 11 Shattered Love 9 Bellshill 8 Thistlecrack 8 Kemboy 7 Al Boum Photo 5 Presenting Percy This is an illustration Of how exposed the main runners are The Previous 23 Gold Cup winners Had the following career chase runs 12 9 18 3 9 5 8 5 9 20 8 10 11 12 9 6 10 13 12 7 10 11 11 21 of the 23 last Gold Cup winners Had under 15 previous chase runs FRODON 22 Chase runs Just looks too exposed BRISTOL DE MAI 21 Chase runs Just looks too exposed DEFINITLY RED 18 Chase runs Not in line with almost all winners NATIVE RIVER 15 Chase starts is forgiveable But he has had 23 lifetime starts Only 1 of the previous 20 winners Had more than 20 lifetimes starts He did win the race last season Only 4 of the last 50 winners Followed up and won this again Will one or two improve past him Can he repeat previous heroics When the ground may not be soft THISTLECRACK 11 years old Horses aged 10 or more Have a very poor record They are 0-75 since 1999 They are 1-104 since 1992 He has also had 23 lifetime starts Only 1 of the previous 20 winners Had more than 20 lifetimes starts Has not won a race since 2016 MIGHT BITE 10 years old Horses aged 10 or more Have a very poor record They are 0-75 since 1999 They are 1-104 since 1992 Flopped on his two runs this season PRESENTING PERCY 5 Chase runs You can win this with 5 Interrupted Season Just 1 run this year (hurdles) CLAN DES OBEAUX Has a 27 day absence Horses running in the Gold Cup Running in the previous 32 days Have a 0-63 record since 1997 Has a stamina problem as well Horses sired by Kapgarde Running in Listed and Graded races Racing over 3m 1f and more Have a 0-15 record so far ANIBALE FLY Not a certain runner Horses running in the Gold Cup Running in the previous 32 days Have a 0-63 record since 1997 The last 17 winners of this race Had won a Grade 1 race and he hasn't He has had 22 lifetime starts Only 1 of the previous 20 winners Had more than 20 lifetimes starts SHATTERED LOVE She is a mare Official Ratings have her way behind Big price if you wanted to risk her ELEGANT ESCAPE Defied his pedigree before Can't be ruled out with 11 chase runs But flat bred and just can't have the pedigree Leaning more towards these horses AL BOUM PHOTO He is a 7yo Has raced just once this season Past 7yo Gold Cup winners Had raced 3 5 4 4 3 4 times that year Worried about a 7yo with 1 run That is my only problem with him Two recent winners had 1 run that year Thats a positive but none were 7yo's He is also coming from a sire Without a winner over this far KEMBOY He is a 7yo Maybe fast improving But Past 7yo Gold Cup winners Had raced 3 5 4 4 3 4 times that year Kemboy has raced only twice Sire has no wins yet over 3m 2f + INVITATION ONLY Backed him at 50/1 some time ago Seen as not a certain runner ROAD TO RESPECT 15 Chase runs is acceptable Finished a decent 4th in 2018 race Connections say he wants it soft His numbers don't really prove this Stamina may be an issue sired by Gamut His sires runners in Class 4 or higher None have yet won beyond 3m 1f (0-13) I would not rule him out on the above BELLSHILL 9 Chase runs is good 21 lifetime runs is the maximum Only 1 of the previous 20 winners Had more than 20 lifetimes starts Provisional Shortlist INVITATION ONLY 50/1 (WP Mullins) AL BOUM PHOTO 20/1 (WP Mullins) KEMBOY 10/1 (WP Mullins) BELLSHILL 14/1 (WP Mullins) ROAD TO RESPECT 25/1 Obviously things can change May have a completely different view later But these 5 horses interested me most 4 of the 5 shortlisted Are trained by Willie Mullins Can't find any prices yet Just for Mullins to win this race But that could be an option later on This list could be whittled down Invitation Only may run elsewhere Obviously the biggest headache Not knowing the stable pecking order But looking at this experimental shortlist Looking at the prices and frame of race If the race was being run today I would probably stake it this way £2.50 Each Way KEMBOY 10/1 £2.50 Each Way BELLSHILL 14/1 The race is not being run today There is still much we do not know Such as ground and running plans Still clinging on for the vain hope That we may be offered 4 places I don't think we will get that though But this is where I am with the race No final selection *************************************************** ***************************************************
Out of interest it has been tradition over the past few years
that Guy gives his final judgement advice on the Cheltenham Gold Cup
out to any registered on his free newsletter. Typically this will be on the
day of the race itself after actual runners and going conditions are confirmed.
If interested in receiving his final assessment register for free at this link