Expense Claim From The Bookmakers

Over to Guy from www.mathematician-betting.co.uk for our regular Saturday  free horse racing tip

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No joy last week on the free blog with Wotova only placing.
He did run again yesterday however and I pointed full members to him.
This time he won at a decent price.
It happens often when you can spot a horse in the zone of winning
that he may not please you first run but the following time out.

Last week I mentioned the firm bet was full member only.
That did very well for them.
Structured as two win bets and an each way double on
Ascot 1.45 – SHOW FLOWER  3/1
Nottingham 2.00 – DISPOL GRAND 7/2

Both horses won landing a good profit.

We had another good day on Friday with a 10/1 firm bet winner.

The full member service is in great form with profit on turnover on my firm tips
running at a level of about 40% for the past 8 months or so of current message format.

Today for full members I have covered 15 races spread between
the three main meetings at Newmarket, Newbury and Thirsk.
It’s quite a typical Saturday with some taxing handicaps and lots
of pitfalls on quality tracks with very few favours given.

I do have a firm full member bet in the 4.15
Join at link below for instant access
http://www.mathematician-betting.co.uk/join-full-service.asp

For the free blog tip today I am again posting up one of the additional races I have examined.

N e w b u r y  3.05

11/4 Thomas Chippendale, 9/2 Hajras, 8/1 Expense Claim
8/1 Rewarded, 10/1 Almuftarris, Icelander, 14/1 Clayton
14/1 Poetic Lord, 14/1 Trader Jack, 16/1 Al Saham
16/1 Hurricane In Dubai, 33/1 Humungosaur
33/1 Tidal Way, 50/1 Mcvicar.

* This is a 3yo Handicap over 10f
* Recent evidence suggests avoid the very low draws
* Since 2011 there were 15 handicaps with 9 runners
* Horses drawn 1-2-3-4 had a 1-57 record
* The winners came from the following stalls
* 8 5 14 8 6 5 2 5 10 12 6 9 11 13 14
* ICELANDER is unsafe and is also drawn 1
* POETIC LORD is drawn 2 and opposed
* He is quite exposed for seasonal debutant
* HAJRAS isn’t drawn well in stall 3
* I dont like him from a 3yo handicap over 8f
* There were several winners doing that
* None had 2 runs like HAJRAS
* Those like HAJRAS winning last time were 0-16
* REWARDED also won a 3yo handicap over a Mile
* We know all 16 horses doing that failed
* TRADER JACK didnt run well enough last time
* I feel the same about TIDAL WAY
* HURRICANE IN DUBAI won a maiden last time
* None did that with only 2 career starts
* HUMUNGOSAUR – Too exposed to be beaten so far
* MCVICAR – Unlikely to hold off the improvers
* AL SAHAM – No winners came from Pattern class as 2yo’s
* CLAYTON – Not far away but only 2 runs
* The only horses like him had 3 runs and I’d prefer that
* ALMUFTARRIS won a 10f maiden last time
* Normally that was a bad profile in this race
* The 2010 winner did win with the same profile though
* That gets him respect but he is the owners 2nd string

Shortlist

* EXPENSE CLAIM – Good solid all round profile
* THOMAS CHIPPENDALE – 1 similar winner
* THOMAS CHIPPENDALE is the most likely winner
* I’d want to include both horses in the staking plan
* Given the prices I am drawn to the bigger priced horse

Selection

EXPENSE CLAIM 7/1 Win Bet  Blue SquareBetfredWilliam HillBet365

THOMAS CHIPPENDALE 9/4 Saver Bet    Blue Square

Live market odds at
http://mathematician-betting.bestbetting.com/horse-racing/2012-05-19/newbury/15-05/betting/

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