10 year trends – Ascot (Saturday)

2.05 Ascot – Cornwallis Stakes – 5f (Group 3) 2yo

POSITIVE TRENDS

Market: The top five in the betting have provided all 10 winners.
Price: All of the winners have been priced 12/1 or shorter.
Days since last run: Horses off the track for between 22 and 29 days have provided 6 of the last 10 winners.
Position LTO: 5 of the last 10 winners won LTO. Backing all 27 qualifiers would have produced a profit of £14.25 (ROI +52.8%).
Market position LTO: 8 of the last 10 winners were in the top 3 of the betting LTO.
Distance LTO: 8 of the last 10 winners raced over 5f LTO.
Running style: 9 of the last 10 winners raced up with or close to the pace.

NEGATIVE TRENDS

Price: Horses priced 14/1 or bigger have produced 0 winners from 64.
Days since last run: Horses off the track for 21 days or less have provided just 1 winner from 50 runners for a loss of £37.00 (ROI -74%).
Handicaps LTO: Horses that raced in a handicap LTO have provided 0 winners from 20.
Beaten distance LTO: Horses that were beaten by 5 or more lengths LTO have provided 0 winners from 40.

GENERAL STATS

Favourites: 2 wins from 10 for a loss of £1.75 (ROI -17.5%).
Sex of horse: Male runners have provided 6 winners from 82 (SR 7.3%); females have won 4 races from 46 (SR 8.7%).

Trends analysis: This has essentially been a market driven race with all of the winners from the top 5 in the betting, and no winners from 64 runners for horses priced 14/1 or bigger. Other positives include a run over 5f LTO, a position in the top 3 in the betting LTO and time off the track of between 22 and 29 days. In terms of negatives, horses that were beaten by 5 or more lengths LTO have a poor record as do horses that raced in a handicap LTO.

2.40 Ascot – Cumberland Lodge – 1m4f (Group 3) 3yo+

POSITIVE TRENDS

Favourites: 7 wins from 10 for a profit of £6.63 (ROI +66.3%).
Market: All 10 winners have come from the top 2 in the betting.
Price: Horses priced 7/2 or shorter have provided all of the last 10 winners.
Position LTO: Horses that finished won LTO have provided 7 of the last 10 winners.
Days since last run: 7 of the last 10 winners had last raced between 15 and 22 days ago.
Breeding: 7 wins from 31 for British bred runners; 3 wins from 8 for USA bred runners.
Trainers: Marcus Tregoning has won the race 5 times from just 6 runners!
Course LTO: Only 12 horses raced at Doncaster LTO but 5 have come on to win here.
Price LTO: 8 of the last 10 winners were priced 5/1 or shorter LTO.

NEGATIVE TRENDS

Breeding: 0 wins from 25 for Irish bred runners.
Market: 0 wins from 49 for horses 3rd or bigger in the betting market.
Beaten distance LTO: Horses that were beaten by 2 or more lengths LTO have provided just 1 winner from 34 for a loss of £30.00 (ROI -88.2%).

GENERAL STATS

Age: 3yos have provided 3 winners from 14 (SR 21.4%); 4yos have provided 5 winners from 29 (SR 17.2%); 5yos+ have provided 2 winners from 28 (SR 7.1%).

Trends analysis: In recent years this race has been totally dominated by the top two in the betting, with favourites having an outstanding record. LTO winners are also worth noting having won 70% of the races from just 24% of the total runners. Trainer Marcus Tregoning clearly targets this race as he has saddled the winner an amazing 5 times from only 6 runners. In terms of breeding, British and American bred runners have won all the races between them, with Irish bred runners really struggling. In terms of age, 3 and 4yos definitely have the edge over their older rivals.

3.15 Ascot – Bengough Stakes – 6f (Group 3) 3yo+

POSITIVE TRENDS

Price: 8 of the last 10 winners have been priced between 6/1 and 16/1.
LTO winners: 4 of the last 10 winners won LTO. Backing all qualifiers would have produced a small profit of £3.50 (ROI +11.3%).
LTO price: 7 of the last 10 winners were priced 8/1 or shorter LTO.
Trainers: 2 wins a piece for Chris Wall and Saeed Bin Suroor.

NEGATIVE TRENDS

Favourites (inc. joints): 2 wins from 13 for a loss of £4.00 (ROI -30.8%).
Price: 0 wins from 61 for horses priced 20/1 or bigger.
Days since last run: Horses off the track for 21 days or less have provided 3 winners but from 88 runners for a loss of £59.00 (ROI -59%).
Position LTO: 32 runners finished 2nd or 3rd LTO and none have gone on to win here.
Handicaps LTO: Horses that raced in a handicap LTO have provided just 1 winner from 40 qualifiers for a loss of £23.00 (ROI -57.5%).
Course LTO: Horses that ran at Newmarket LTO have provided 0 winners from 23. Horses coming from Ascot LTO have produced 2 winners, but from 49 qualifiers.
Headgear: Horses wearing any type of headgear (blinkers, tongue tie, cheekpieces etc) have provided just 1 winner from 34 for a loss of £27.00 (ROI -79.4%).

GENERAL STATS

Age: 3yos have provided 2 winners from 37 (SR 5.4%); 4yos have provided 4 winners from 39 (SR 10.3%); 5yos have provided 2 winners from 34 (SR 5.9%); 6yos have provided 2 winners from 21 (SR 9.5%); 7yos+ have provided 0 winners from 20 (SR 0%).
Sex of horse: Male runners have provided 8 winners from 132 (SR 6.1%); females have won 2 races from 19 (SR 10.5%).

Trends analysis: It should be noted that this race has slightly stronger negative trends than positive ones. Horses wearing headgear have a poor record as do runners that raced at either Ascot or Newmarket LTO. In addition horses returning to the track within 3 weeks have a below average record. It terms of price it looks best to focus on prices between 6/1 and 16/1 as they have provided 80% of the winners from around 45% of the total runners. Age wise there are no clear trends although horses aged 7 or older look worth avoiding.

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Dave Renham is a uk Horse Racing Researcher
For more info Click Here ==> Horse Racing Statistics
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