10 year trends – Thurs 3.15 Goodwood – The Goodwood Cup (Group 2) – 2 miles (3yo+)

3.15 Goodwood – The Goodwood Cup (Group 2) – 2 miles (3yo+)

POSITIVE TRENDS

Market: 7 of the 10 races have been won by horses from the top two of the betting. 9 of the 10 from the top 4.
Price: All 10 races have been won by horses priced 10/1 or lower.
Days since last run: Horses returning to the track between 21 and 42 days have won all of the last 10 races.
Race Class LTO: 7 of the last 10 winners had raced in a Group 1 race on their previous start (from 29 qualifiers). A small profit of £7.56 (ROI +26.1%) would have been achieved if backing all qualifiers.
Recent wins: 9 of the last 10 winners had won at least once in their last 4 starts.

NEGATIVE TRENDS

Price: Horses priced 11/1 or bigger have provided 0 winners from 58.
Position LTO: Horses that finished 4th or worse LTO have provided only 2 winners from 51 for a loss of £31.00 (ROI -60.8%).
LTO distance: Horses that raced at under 2 miles LTO have a poor record with just 1 win from 24 for a loss of £21.50 (ROI -89.6%).
LTO Race class: Horses that raced below Group 1 class LTO have provided just 3 winners from 78 for a hefty loss of £62.00 (ROI -79.5%).

GENERAL STATS

Favourites: 5 wins from 10 qualifiers for a profit of £2.06 (ROI +20.6%).
Age: 3 year olds rarely run in the race, but all 5 have been beaten since 2001. 4 year olds have won 1 race from 39 (SR 2.6%); 5 years olds have won 2 times from 23 (SR 8.7%); 6 year olds plus have the best record with 6 wins from 40 qualifiers (SR 15%).
LTO course: Horses that raced at Ascot LTO have provided 6 of they last 10 winners (60%) – they have provided 43% of the total runners.

Trends Summary: The best starting point is to look for the front end of the market with all of the last 10 winners priced 10/1 or shorter. Horses that raced in a Group 1 race LTO have a good record, and the majority ran in the Gold Cup at Royal Ascot so these runners merit close scrutiny. Also look for horses that have won at least once in their last four starts, while older horses (6yo+) have had an edge over their younger rivals. In terms of negatives avoid runners that raced under 2 miles LTO, while horses that finished 4th or worse on their most recent start have a poor record also.

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Dave Renham is a uk Horse Racing Researcher
For more info Click Here ==> Horse Racing Statistics
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