10 year trends for Saturday 27 August
2.50 Goodwood – Prestige Stakes – 7f (Group 3) 2yo
POSITIVE TRENDS
| Favourites (inc. joints): 5 wins from 11 for a profit of £2.17 (ROI +19.7%). |
| Market: The top 4 in the betting have provided 9 of the last 10 winners. |
| Price: 7 of the last 10 winners were priced 4/1 or shorter. |
| Course LTO: 5 of the last 10 winners raced at Newmarket LTO. |
| Position LTO: 8 of the last 10 winners won LTO. |
| Race type: 6 of the last 10 winners raced in a maiden LTO. |
| Trainers: 2 wins apiece for John Gosden, Luca Cumani and Barry Hills. |
NEGATIVE TRENDS
| Position LTO: Horses that finished 4th or worse LTO have provided 0 winners from 19. |
| Price: Horses priced 10/1 or bigger have provided 1 winner from 42 runners. |
| Class LTO: Horses that raced in class 2 or higher LTO have provide just 3 winners from 39 runners for a loss of £27.00 (ROI -69.2%). |
GENERAL STATS
| Career starts: Horses that have had 2 previous starts have provided 5 winners from 20 for a profit of £22.10 (ROI +110.5%); horses that have had 3 or more career starts have provide just 1 winner from 39 for a loss of £35.25 (ROI -92.8%). |
Trends analysis: The market has generally been a good guide with 50% of the races going to the favourite, and 4 more going to horses 2nd to 4th in betting. LTO winners have a good record, while those that ran at Newmarket LTO are also worth close scrutiny. In terms of race type/class LTO, horses that raced in a maiden have performed far better than those that raced in a class 2 or higher contest. Trainer wise Cumani, Gosden and Barry Hills have won the race twice.
3.20 Goodwood – Celebration Mile – 1m (Group 2) 3yo+
POSITIVE TRENDS
| Price: All of the last 10 winners were priced 10/1 or shorter. |
| Breeding: 7 of the last 10 winners were British bred. |
| Position LTO: Horses that finished 2nd LTO have provided 5 winners from 13 for a profit of £5.89 (ROI +45.3%). |
| Female runners: Just 6 runs for female runners but 3 victories. |
| Market position LTO: Horses that were favourite or second favourite LTO have provided 8 of the last 10 winners. |
| Days since last run: Horses that raced LTO between 8 and 28 days ago have provided 7 of the winners. |
| Trainers: Sir Michael Stoute has saddled 4 winners from 9 runners; Saeed Bin Suroor has saddled 3 winners from 7. |
NEGATIVE TRENDS
| Favourites: 3 wins from 10 for a loss of £5.11 (ROI -51.1%). |
| Price: Horses priced 11/1 or bigger have provided 0 winners from 24. |
| Position LTO: Horses that won LTO have provided just 1 winner from 17 qualifiers for a loss of £12.00 (ROI -70.6%). |
GENERAL STATS
| Age: 3yos have provided 4 winners from 22 runners (SR 18.2%); 4yos have provided 1 winner from 19 (SR 5.3%); 5yos have provided 4 winners from 12 (SR 33.3%); 6yos plus have provide 1 winner from 11 (SR 9.1%). |
| LTO class: 8 wins from horses that raced in Group class LTO. This equates to an 80% success rate, but they have provided 70% of the total runners. |
Trends analysis: The best starting point is to focus on horses priced 10/1 or shorter, although favourites have a relatively poor record. This is because all winning favourites have been very short prices. British bred runners have performed well while Stoute and Bin Suroor are trainers to note. Female runners are rare but 3 wins from 6 is worth noting. In terms of LTO performance horses that won LTO have performed poorly, whereas those who finished 2nd have provided 50% of the winners.
6.40 Windsor – Winter Hill Stakes – 1m 2f (Group 3) 3yo+
POSITIVE TRENDS
| Market: 9 of the last 10 winners came from the top four in the betting. |
| Market: 3rd and 4th favourites have provided 5 winners from 20 for a profit of £10.50 (ROI +52.5%). |
| Price: All of the last 10 winners were priced 8/1 or shorter. |
| Days since last run: Horses coming back off a break of 14 to 21 days have provided 6 winners from only 17 runners for a profit of £19.00 (ROI +111.8%). |
| Course LTO: Horses that raced at Haydock LTO have provided 4 winners from 11 runners for a profit of £9.60 (ROI +87.3%). |
| Distance LTO: Horses that raced over 1m 4f LTO have provided 4 winners from 16 for a profit of £7.00 (ROI +43.8%). |
| Trainers: Sir Michael Stoute and Saeed Bin Suroor have both saddled 3 winners in the last 10 years. |
NEGATIVE TRENDS
| Price: Horses priced 17/2 or bigger have provided 0 winners from 31. |
| Headgear: Horses wearing headgear (eg. blinkers, visor, cheekpieces, etc) have provided 0 winners from 14. |
GENERAL STATS
| Favourites: 3 wins from 10 for a loss of £1.90 (ROI -19%). |
| LTO class: Horses that raced in a Group race LTO have provided 6 winners from 32 (SR 18.8%); horses that raced in Listed class or lower LTO have provided 4 winners from 43 (SR 9.3%). |
| Age: 3yos have provided 3 winners from 16 runners (SR 18.8%); 4yos have provided 6 winners from 29 (SR 20.7%); 5yos plus have provided just 1 winner from 30 (SR 3.3%). |
Trends analysis: This race has tended to favour the more fancied runners with no winner priced over 8/1. 3rd and 4th favourites have provide the best value providing 50% of the winners and producing returns of over 50%. Trainers to follow include Sir Michael Stoute and Saeed Bin Suroor who have saddled 60% of the winner between them. In terms of LTO class, horses that raced in Group class LTO have won 60% of the races from 43% of the total runners; compare this to those running in Listed or lower class LTO who have won 40% of the races from 57% of the total runners. Age wise it looks best to ignore runners aged 5 or older.
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Dave Renham is a uk Horse Racing Researcher
For more info Click Here ==> Horse Racing Statistics
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