Guy from Mathematician Betting gave us a great big odds winner here on sports betting blog last weekend.
Can he do the same again?
Over to Guy
A nice winner here last Saturday with Golden Desert who won at 16/1 SP.
You would have made extra cash profit of course if you took the early odds 18/1 advised here.
On to today. Can we make it two in a row?
Probably not. I feel we have value on our side but a 6/1 shot even if say 9/2 true odds is more likely to lose than win on the day.
Bet such horses 1000 times however and you should come out ahead in the long run.
N e w m a r k e t 3.35
11/4 Jameel, 11/2 Art History, 6/1 Topolski
13/2 Butler, 8/1 Incendo, 8/1 Warlu Way, 9/1 Greylami
16/1 The Betchworth Kid, 20/1 Red Anthem
25/1 Big Creek, 25/1 Itlaaq.
* This is a 12f Handicap for 0-100 rated horses
* There are 53 similar races at this time of year
* JAMEEL is very lightly raced
* We had 2 winners like him from Maidens
* Both came from 12f and he comes from 10f
* Neither had 1-2 runs that season
* I looked at 3 year olds from 10f races
* Those like JAMEEL with under 7 runs were 0-23
* Those like JAMEEL with under 7 that year were 0-22
* JAMEEL does have flaws in his profile
* TOPOLSKI had a superb season over hurdles last year
* He won all 3 and now returns back to the flat
* Long absence and I am far from convinced about him
* Horses like him score poorly and this is a hot race
* His connections say he is only 90% fit
* ITLAAQ and BIG CREEK didnt do enough last time
* RED ANTHEM may need more runs
* THE BETCHWORTH KID has been absent too long
* No exposed horse won without 7 + runs that season
* GREYLAMI fails that and looks short of runs
* INCENDO also fails that with 6 runs
* INCENDO is exposed and hasnt run in 2 weeks
* Similar horses struggled with a 2-91 record
* Both had more backclass and came from better races
* INCENDO didnt really do much for me
P o s s i b l e s
* BUTLER is 4 and well beaten over 12f last time
* WARNES WAY has the same problem
* Neither come out well on their latest starts
* I looked at horses aged 4 well beaten last time
* These horses score badly but there is hope there
* Last years winner of this overcame a similar problem
* If either bounce back they could be a threat
* Results show not many 4 year olds like them have
* Last years winner had a recent race
* Both horses have been absent over a Month
* I looked at horses aged 4 absent over a Month
* Those with 9 + runs had a 1-40 record
* That horse won down from the 14f Ebor
* BUTLER – WARNES WAY just come up short
S e l e c t i o n
* ART HISTORY is 3 and won at 10f last time
* I found 2 similar winners who were a close match
* ART HISTORY is a positive
* ART HISTORY Each Way 6/1 looks a solid bet
Full live odds can be seen at