Euro 2012 – Great Free Stuff

There is an excellent FREE Euro 2012 research doc

over at ProGamblerBriefs.

Go Get Yours Now

There is a lot of great content in it you will enjoy.

It’s key purpose however to demonstrate the style of a more comprehensive
paid for version.

The full version is 230 pages of data any punter should be keen to read.

It is aimed at professionally minded punters seekign the edge attention to
fine detail can bring.

Should you invest in the full version there is a not too insignificant bonus.

The author will provide notes and analysis on daily matches via web site
and email.

The value of this aspect is perhasp undersold in the site.

To give you a better feel as to his credibility see an extract from his notes
for today

at the base of this email.

This is about half his message.

He also covers the Russia game in simillar fashion.

Actual final confirmed tip is removed from here but he does have a few for
today.

They are available in the site member area to those who

buy the big research report tournament daily notes package.

Anyhow..thumbs up from me.

I did help put his site up so am not 100% impartial.

Any of you who are long in the tooth however about your punting will

see this is quality stuff and well above the norm of usual drival out there.

At the very least go
get the free stuff.

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Euro 2012 Day One 8 June 2012

And so it begins, a (number) day festival of football kicks off today at
tea-time with hosts Poland facing Greece. Russia play the Czech Republic later.

Fridays Fixtures:

Group A: Poland v Greece (Warsaw, 1700)

Group A: Russia v CzechRepublic (Wroclaw, 1945)

Before looking at the first game specifically it is probably worth looking
at the phenomenon of nervy opening day games at The Euros.

The Record Of Host Nations In The Tournament Curtain-Raiser

On first look it is hard to get animated about backing Poland for three points
at a short-ish best price of around 2.08 (-0.5) Asian Handicap.

With just two of the last eight nations to host or co-host the Euro Finals
obliging in their opening match – clearly nerves and the weight of national
expectation must always be factored into any calculations.

Poland will have the crowd, sure, but will the vocal backing inspire or inhibit
a new Poland side that are still to play their first competitive game together
after a program of friendlies since the World Cup qualifiers for South Africa
2010 ended in 2009?

Looking at the opening games of the last eight Euros final tournaments since
1988, West Germany, Sweden, England, Portugal, Switzerland and Austria have
all failed to claim a win on their tournament bow. The only opening day winners
in that time period were co-hosts Holland and Belgium in 2000. As hosts, Portugal,
Switzerland and Austria were all beaten while West Germany, Sweden and England
all played out 1-1 draws.

In general terms, the hosts have generally recovered from that initial flat
performance. West Germany, Sweden and England all reached the semi-finals
when they hosted their Euros. Indeed Portugal went one better finishing as
runners-up to Greeces setpiece winner in 2004 and they were arguably quite
unlucky not to lift the Henri Delaunay trophy.

However, that doesnt really give us a great steer on what to do specifically
with todays curtain raiser in Warsaw. For that we will need to dig into the
notes….

Group A: Poland v Greece (Warsaw, 1700)

Venue: National Stadium, Warsaw

The new national stadium is due to host the opening match between Poland and
Greece, games between Poland v Russia and Greece v Russia, a quarter-final,
and a semi-final of the UEFA Euro 2012 hosted jointly by Poland and Ukraine.

It is a multi-use stadium but crucially it doesnt have an athletics track.
That is great for producing an electric atmosphere in the ground. The capacity
is 58,000. As Polands top-rated stadium there are no issues. The stadium is
a positive for the home side.

Referee: Carlos Velasco Carballo (Spain)

“Velasco Carballo had his debut in the Spanish Primera Division in 2004.
He moved up to the UEFA elite category at the start of 2011.

In two years he graduated from the lower slopes of La Liga to the knock-out
stage of the Europa League: a very quick, indeed a worryingly quick apprenticeship
– especially so as at times Velasco Carballo has averaged as many as
six cards per game at certain points in Spain. Does that indicate a rashness
born of a lack of experience? If so, it could rear its ugly head at Euro 2012,
the refs first major international tournament.

The Spaniard must be considered to be a very inexperienced referee at this
level with only 34 top level games under his belt as a professional ref.

Match reports from The Champions League 2011-2012 Quarter final between Marseille
v Bayern Munich of 28th April 2012 definitely sets the alarm bells ringing.

The ref appears to have got caught up in the pace of the game which led to
him rewarding a rash of cards in the first half where not all these cards
were convincing. As the reviewer reports: “His decisions were okay,
his card policy remained a mystery to me and his fierce style is not to my
liking.”

I would be concerned that Velasco Carballos style of refereeing could lead
to overreaction under pressure at Euro 2012 and also to broken up games where
the flow of play could be severely disturbed by fussy refereeing.

The ref could be one to avoid if you are looking for goals and a flowing game
to bet in play.

He might be one to consider though if you are looking at high card mark-ups
or to back a sending off in specific games. Mr Velasco Carballo hasnt flashed
a red yet in anger but my sense is that he may not respond well to the increased
scrutiny of Euro 2012 as a result of his relative inexperience. I could easily
see him getting card happy as he loses the plot….He is one to treat with
care.”

The Game

Goran says: “In 2004 Greece had an identity, inspired by Rehagel, and
a gameplan that the players bought into, believed in and took confidence from.
Identity, belief, confidence these are massively valuable commodities at the
top levels of football where details, even the slightest edge can decide a
result.

But the Greece from 2004 and the latest Greece incarnation have nothing in
common.”

Greece travel with one of the weakest teams in the tournament. Gekas, Salpigidis
and Samaras as are not top level strikers. What we can expect from the Greeks
in this tournament is fighting spirit, early crosses from the flanks, deep
defending and counter attacking.

This Greece team will have problem holding onto the ball in attacking situations.
There is no-one capable of playing with their back to goal and linking the
play in the front three. Gekas is a veteran who only comes alive with a sight
of goal. At his best Samaras is a decent channel runner but he lacks heart,
strength and the consistency of technique required of an international frontman
in a serious side. The Celtic misfit is a jack of all trades and a master
of none. Salpigidis is full of energy but lacks football intelligence –
like Gekas his only interest is getting on the end of chances in space.

In midfield, the skipper Karagounis was a wonderful player and a hero of
2004, but he is way past his best. The rest of them are honest performers
but no more than that unless they hit a very good day.

The big negative for Greece is the injury to star man Sotiris Ninis the so-called
Greek Messi. He has been injured for the majority of the season and seems
really unlikely to start although he could feature from the bench. Ninis energy
is important to a Greek midfield that otherwise lacks mobility and pace.

Poland are a work in progress – not least because they havent played
competitively since 2009 and this is a new-look side that takes advantage
of the widely spread Polish diaspora for recruiting its personnel.

Despite that the experienced coach Franciszek Smuda claims he has known virtually
his entire starting XI for better or for worse for some time, and in the likes
of Borussia Dortmund trio Jakub Blaszczykowski, Robert Lewandowski and Lukasz
Piszczek, alongside the Arsenal goalkeeper Wojciech Szczesny he does have
a decent core at his disposal.

After a bold experiment that ended with a 6-0 hammering from Spain in Murcia,
Smudas lesson has been the one usually learned sooner rather than later by
coaches of limited teams. He has reconciled himself to the fact that in order
to successful he has to fit the system to the players he has – rather
than the opposite way around.

We should be prepared for counter-attacking football and for Poland to do
everything they can to support Lewandowski. That should mean direct, one-touch,
fast-played football, based on exploiting the talents of the squads few key
individuals rather than looking for an overall team-based pattern.

With a stronger spine to their side thanks to the Borussia Dortmund trio of
Lukasz Piszczek, Jakub Blaszczykowski (c) and Robert Lewandowski and with
Poland having the home crowd right behind them at a closed stadium (without
a perimeter running track) they simply have to fancy their chances in this
one. And it is a game they will have earmarked as a massive opportunity for
three points.

There is one obvious negative too.

At last count Smuda has eight players (more than a third of this Poland squad)
that could go to Euro 2012 shrouded in doubts on the back of poor form or
injury-hit seasons (or both). For a new Poland team, without the experience
forged by playing together in meaningful competitive internationals to fall
back upon, it is hard to see just how this Poland team will be able to hit
the ground running. They could be just starting to gel together as a side
by the time they play their third fixture in an albeit easy group.

Spain destroyed Poland with goals and shots flying in from everywhere two
years ago. Now the defending is allegedly much improved but it remains untested
in the heat of a proper game. Lack of communication between unfamiliar players
could be an issue and that must make them vulnerable at setpieces and against
midfield runners. Karagounis setpieces are a danger but at least midfield
runners will be in short supply for Greece.

Verdict

Poland look like the likelier winners here they have the better key men in
the Borussia Dortmund trio and home advantage in a tight, atmospheric ground
should boost them greatly.

The negatives are the general fear factor for opening day host sides, the
lack of team cohesion for Poland as a result of being a new side with no competitive
games having been played since 2009.

The referee is a wild card in this game. He could be out of his depth but
if anything he looks more likely to end up favouring the home side in his
decisions in terms of red cards and penalty awards.

Summary Of Todays Selections:

Giorgos Karagounis to be shown a card v Poland 3.1 Paddy Power (2.5 Skybet,
BoyleSports, Sportingbet, 3.33 Betfair) 0.25pt

Double: Both Teams Draw No Bet Poland to bt Greece and Russia to bt Czech
Republic pays: 2.2 Skybet, bet 365, Ladbrokes 0.5pt

Russia to bt Czech Republic Group A 2.58 Pinnacle (2.57 SBOBet, 2.52 188Bet,
2.5 bet 365) 0.5pt