Paddy Power Gold Cup At Cheltenham
Paddy Power Cheltenham Gold Cup
This below was extracted from the free newsletter over at Guy Ward’s Mathematician Betting site.
It contains some useful insight into today’s Paddy Power Gold Cup at Cheltenham.
If you want to join that free newsletter youself you can do so here
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#1 New Ante Post Section..what’s that all about then?
Well not long range ante post tips but I guess a self thinker
reader may self choose to make a self decided ante post bet
any time they want.
From Guy’s point of view it is more so about research
preparation work on upcoming major races.
Most of his focus on any given day will be on that day’s
normal racing. But if he can snatch a bit of free time
he will put it to good use with advance research for a major race.
The November Handicap stats I sent you last week were
extracted from this new Ante Post section.
This week I have for you his thoughts into Saturday’s Paddy Power Gold Cup.
You can see from the dates below that full members have been getting it in
dribs and drabs from Tuesday Nov 3rd over time as Guy completes various
angles of research.
Note below how his positive and negative list
builds up over time. It’s probably worth saying that Guy himself
would not always totally blinker himself to only his positives.
A mild negative stat can be overlooked if market odds
are excessive and offer good value.
Saturday’s message will contain his final day of race opinion
once final runners, going day of race market odds etc are
more firmed up.
Tuesday 3rd
A n t e P o s t
New Column
Won’t be filling it up with long range bets
I want to start the countdown to the Paddy Power
Building a list of positives and negatives
Cheltenham Saturday 14th November
Paddy Power Gold Cup
8/1 Kings Palace 10/1 Monetaire, Boondooma
12/1 Cocktails At Dawn, Present View, 12/1 Irish Cavalier
12/1 Johns Spirit, 16/1 Oscar Rock, Thomas Crapper,
20/1 Buywise, Clarcam 20/1 Ptit Zig, Sound Investment
20/1 Splash of Ginge, 20/1 Taquin Du Seuil, 20/1 Annacotty
25/1 Art Mauresque – 33/1 Bar
KING’S PALACE – David Pipe
Current Race favourite
Breeding Stats Positive
He is a 7yo seasonal debutant
He has 4 Chase starts
Recent winners had the following chase runs
5 8 7 6 3 9 5 6 5 12 15 10 5 27 7
I’d have been happier with another Chase run
Gets extra points for Cheltenham Form
5 winners aged 7 were seasonal debutants
They were Males with 3 5 6 8 12 previous chase runs
The horse with 3 Chase runs won the Cheltenham Gold Cup
Again that extra chase run would have helped
Another issue to consider is the big field
How robust is he and how will he cope
Verdict – Positive Profile
MONETAIRE – David Pipe
Seasonal debutant aged 9 with 12 Chase starts
Cyfor Malta 2002 had the same profile
He was a past winner of this race though
He had achieved a lot more than Monetaire
His career best Racing Post Rating over fences is 146
If you look at the last 15 winners and their career best
Monetaire comes out as Joint 11th best of the 15
Not keen he is sired by a Flat sire
Not keen he started life on the flat
He scrapes through my breeding stats
But only 1 horse (The Last Derby) gets him there
I find his breeding profile unsatisfactory
Verdict – Unsatisfactory
Wed 4th
BOONDOOMA 10/1
Dr Richard Newland
BOONDOOMA has been out and won at Cheltenham
He has 4 Chase runs
Recent winners had 5 8 7 6 3 9 5 6 5 12 15 10 5 27 7 runs
Would have been safer if he had managed 5 chase runs
19 of the last 21 winners had Grade 1 or Grade 2 form
BOONDOOMA only has Grade 3 form
That is another concern about his profile
There were 3 recent 8yo winners
They won from marks of 150 137 146
BOONDOOMA has to defy a higher mark of 154
That’s a worry when you consider no Grade 1-2 form
The 3 winners aged 8 had 8 10 7 previous Chase runs
BOONDOOMA only has 4
Look at the 7 winners that ran this season
They all ran within the past 17 days
Horses running this season absent 18+ days are 0-59
BOONDOOMA fails that albeit only just
Gets Positives for a Cheltenham win
Gets Positives for a Career best run last time
But he has to step up from a 2m 5f race
For me there are too many holes in his profile
Current Positives
King’s Palace
Current Negatives
Monetaire
Boondooma
Sunday 8th
Paddy Power Gold Cup
ANNACOTTY was gambled yesterday
Several firms cut him from 20/1 to 16/1-14/1
One very significant positive for me
Is he has upgraded stables this season
Martin Keighley to Alan King is a good upgrade
Most recent winners were lighter raced over fences
Go back a decade or so and some were like him
He does not fit the ideal range of 5-12 Chase starts
That said the 5 seasonal debutant winners aged 7
Had 3 5 6 8 12 previous chase runs
ANNACOTTY with 13 Chase runs is worth considering
He is a Grade 1 winner
He is a Grade 3 winner at Cheltenham
His Numbers certainly show enough class
Alan King has nominated the race as a target
I certainly wouldn’t rule him out
His last 2 seasonal debuts were defeats when favourite
That wouldn’t put me off to be honest
Has to be in the Positives
Current Positives
King’s Palace
Annacotty
Current Negatives
Monetaire
Boondooma
Tuesday 10th
Looking at the 6 year olds now
IRISH CAVALIER
PTIT ZIG
LA VATICANE
There are only 3 potential runners this year aged 6
I don’t think a 6yo will win it this year
Only 5 winners aged 6 since 1994
Horses aged 6 have a 4-46 record since 1997
The 4 recent winners aged 6
Won from handicap marks of 139 139 136 138
PTIT ZIG has to defy a mark of 159
IRISH CAVALIER has to defy a mark of 156
There handicap marks are far higher than any 6yo winner
If you look at 6 year olds rated 140 or more
All 27 that raced were beaten
There was a 148 rated winner aged 6 in 1996
He had considerably less weight though
LA VATICANE has a lower rating
She is a seasonal debutant mare though
She is surely too inexperienced with just 2 starts
Only 1 recent winner had under 5 Chase starts
That ended up a Cheltenham Gold Cup winner
I just feel this years 6 year olds have too much on
Current Positives
King’s Palace
Annacotty
Current Negatives
Monetaire – Boondooma
Irish Cavalier -Ptit Zig – La Vaticane
Wednesday 11th
Yesterday I showed how Saturday’s Badger Ales
Chase was dominated by lightly raced Chasers.
The last 9 winners of this race
Had the following chase runs before
5 8 7 6 3 9 5 6 5
None of the last 9 winners had 10 or more Chase runs
Horses that had 10 + Chase runs were 0-70
I think we need to take that hint
There are 28 horses left in this race
They have the following Chase runs
7 11 19 8 5 4 4 6 17 12 7 14 8 10
13 6 12 11 8 7 12 23 7 15 28 8 2 2
I think we must stay with horses with under 10 Chase runs
This leads to the following horses being rejected
DOUBLE ROSS 17 Chase runs
JOHNS SPIRIT 19 Chase runs
CROCO BAY 13 Chase runs
NEXT SENSATION 14 Chase runs
BENNYS MIST 23 Chase runs
TURN OVER SIVOLA 15 Chase runs
ASTRACAD 28 Chase runs
ANNACOTTY also has 13 Chase starts
I already have him on the positives list
I am now more inclined to put him on the negatives list
Current Positives
King’s Palace
Annacotty
Current Negatives
Monetaire – Boondooma – Double Ross – Croco Bay
Irish Cavalier – Turn Over Sivola – La Vaticane – John’s Spirit
Next Sensation – Ptit Zig – Astracad – Bennys Mist
Annacotty is now on both lists
Thursday 12th
Yesterday I opposed horses with over 10 Chase runs
DARNA should have been in that list
I don’t want a 9yo debutant anyway
I don’t want a very poor recent run
PRESENT VIEW pulled up in the last 2 weeks
EASTER DAY pulled up in the last 2 weeks
SPLASH OF GINGE ran too badly too recently
LITTLE JON ran too badly too recently
GENEROUS RANSOM had a poor last run over hurdles
No past winner ran recently over hurdles
He also lacks backclass
Every past winner had form in a Graded race before
20 of the last 22 winners had Grade 1 or Grade 2 form
GENEROUS RANSOM does not have that
CLOUD CREEPER lacks Graded form as well
THE CLOCK LEARY won’t run and is too inexperienced
Current Positives
King’s Palace
Annacotty
Current Negatives
Monetaire – Boondooma – Double Ross – Croco Bay
Irish Cavalier – Turn Over Sivola – La Vaticane – John’s Spirit
Next Sensation – Ptit Zig – Astracad – Bennys Mist – Darna
Easter Day – Present View – Generous Ransom – Cloud Creeper
The horses we have yet to reject are below
KING’S PLACE – ANACOTTY – ART MAURESQUE
SOUND INVESTMENT – SHANPALLAS – BUYWISE
OSCAR ROCK – COCKTAILS AT DAWN
Friday 13th
The Final Declarations are in
There are 22 runners
No idea if this process we are doing will work
I want to tidy up our shortlist with 24hrs to go
SHANPALLAS is rejected
He has not looked like a Paddy Power winner recently
SOUND INVESTMENT is also rejected as well
He has 11 Chase runs more than the last 9 winners
He has Topweight as well
His ratings task is the same as Al Ferof in 2012
Thats a 7yo winning off 159
Al Ferof was a multiple Grade 1 winner
He had won a Supreme Novice hurdle as well
SOUND INVESTMENT is just a Grade 2 winner
He has never raced at Cheltenham before
Surely asking a lot to win off topweight
Without any experience on the track
ANACOTTY has been a positive and negative
I have to make a judgement call with him
I am taking him off the shortlist
13 Chase runs is a lot for a seasonal debutant
24hr Shortlist
OSCAR ROCK – I’d prefer a recent run + track form
COCKTAILS AT DAWN – Has positives + negatives
KING’S PLACE – Profile fine
ART MAURESQUE – We can no longer rule out 5yo’s
BUYWISE – Close enough to the past 8yo winners