Royal Ascot – 10 year trends for 2 races on Thursday
4.25 Ascot – Britannia Stakes (1 mile – handicap) 3yo
POSITIVE TRENDS
| Price: 6 of the last 10 winners have been priced between 14/1 and 33/1. |
| Weight: Horses carrying 8st 12lb or less have provided 9 of the last 10 winners. |
| Price LTO: 7 of the last 10 winners were priced 6/1 or shorter LTO. |
| Market position LTO: Horses that were favourite or second favourite LTO have provided 6 of the last 10 winners. |
| Running style: 8 of the 10 races have been won by horses that came from off the pace. |
NEGATIVE TRENDS
| Weight: Horses from the top 7 in the weights have provided 2 winners from 72 runners for a loss of £29.00 (ROI -40.3%). |
| Position LTO: Horses that won LTO have provided just 2 winners from 77 for a loss of £57.00 (ROI -74%). |
| Beaten distance LTO: Horses that were beaten by more than 5 lengths LTO have provided just 2 winners from 98. |
| Race type LTO: Horses that raced in a maiden LTO have provided 0 wins from 24 runners. |
| Race distance LTO: Horses that raced over 1m1f or more LTO have provided 0 wins from 55 runners. |
GENERAL TRENDS
| Favourites (inc. joints): 2 from 12 for a small loss of £1.50 (ROI -12.5%). |
| Trainers: John Gosden has saddled the winner twice but he has had 18 runners. |
| Trends Summary: This has been an open race if you look at the prices of the winners and the best starting point is to focus on runners carrying less weight – 8st 12lb or less has been the cut-off point in recent years with 9 of the last 10 winners carrying no more than that. There are some interesting negative trends worth noting such as poor performances for LTO winners and horses that raced over 9f or more LTO. |
5.35 Ascot – King George V – (1 mile 4f – handicap) 3yo
POSITIVE TRENDS
| Market: 6 of the last 10 winners were priced between 7/1 and 14/1. |
| Position LTO: 9 of the last 10 winners finished in the first 3 LTO. |
| Price LTO: Horses that were priced 6/1 or shorter LTO have provided 8 of the last 10 winners. |
| Market position LTO: LTO favourites have won 6 of the last 10 races from 56 qualifiers for a profit of £13.00 (ROI +23.2%). |
| Career runs: Horses that have run 6 times or less in their careers have won 9 of the last 10 races. |
| Trainers: Mark Johnston and Sir Michael Stoute have both had 3 wins in the last 10 renewals. |
NEGATIVE TRENDS
| Favourites (inc. joints): 1 win from 12 for favourites showing a loss of £5.50 (ROI -45.8%). |
GENERAL TRENDS
| Race type LTO: 3 winners raced in non handicaps LTO from 53 runners (SR 5.7%); 7 winners raced in handicaps LTO from 130 runners (SR 5.4%). |
| Trends Summary: Not a great race for favourites but then this is always a competitive handicap with a big field. Horses priced 7/1 to 14/1 have been the most successful, as have relatively lightly raced animals (6 races or less). Horses that finished in the first 3 LTO also have a good record. Trainers Sir Michael Stoute and Mark Johnston seem to target this race. |
*****************************************
Dave Renham is a uk Horse Racing Researcher
For more info Click Here ==> Horse Racing Statistics
*****************************************