Saturday – 10 year trends for Ascot

1.30 Ascot – Longines Handicap – 7f (class 3 handicap) 3yo+

POSITIVE TRENDS

Price: Horses priced between 9/1 and 20/1 have provided 7 of the last 10 winners.
Position LTO: Horses that finished 3rd to 6th LTO have provided 8 of the last 10 winners.
Days since last run: 7 of the last 10 winners had raced within the last 15 days.
Weight: 5 of the last 10 winners came from the bottom six in the weights. With an average field size of 21 during this period this has been a reasonably strong trend.
Jockeys: Miss S Brotherton has won the race twice and been placed on one other occasion.
Course LTO: Only 6 horses raced at Haydock LTO but 3 have come on to win here.

NEGATIVE TRENDS

Favourites (inc. joints): 0 wins from 13.
Market: Just 1 win from 31 for horses from the top three of the betting.
Weight: Horses from the top 8 of the weights have provided just 2 winners from 80 for a loss of £60.00 (ROI -75%).
Position LTO: Horses that won or finished 2nd LTO have provided 0 winners from 48.
LTO race: 24 horses raced in a non handicap LTO and all have lost.

GENERAL STATS

Age: 3yos have provided 0 winners from 17 (SR 0%); 4yos have provided 6 winners from 62 (SR 9.7%); 5yos have provided 2 winners from 45 (SR 4.4%); 6yos+ have provided 2 winners from 87 (SR 2.3%).

Trends analysis: In recent years it has been worthwhile to look for horses priced 9/1 to 20/1 as they have provided 7 of the last 10 winners. Indeed the top three in the betting have a dreadful record and it has been value to look beyond these runners, Last time out winners / runners up have NOT been worth following and in general it is a race where if you fancy a horse do not be put off by the price as there also have been two winners at 33/1. 4 year olds have the best record age wise, while horses aged 6 or older look worth avoiding. Finally lower weighted runners have clearly out-performed higher weighted ones.

2.40 Ascot – Princess Margaret – 6f (Group 3) 2yo (fillies)

POSITIVE TRENDS

Favourites (inc. joints): 5 wins from 12 for a profit of £4.83 (ROI +40.3%).
Market: 8 of the last 10 winners came from the top two in the betting.
Position LTO: 5 of the last 10 winners finished 2nd or 3rd LTO. Backing all qualifiers would have produced a profit of £15.33 (ROI +56.8%).
Price: 9 of the last 10 winners have been priced 6/1 or shorter.
Course LTO: 5 of the 10 winners raced at Ascot LTO. That equates to 50% of the winners from only 15% of the total runners. Backing all runners would have produced a profit of £8.00 (ROI +53.3%).
Running style: Hold up horses have the best record in the race with 6 wins.

NEGATIVE TRENDS

Market: Horses 4th or higher in the betting market have provided 1 winner from 67 runners for a loss of £41.00 (ROI -61.2%).
Breeding: Irish bred runners have a poor record with just 2 wins from 39 for a loss of £28.00 (ROI -71.8%).
Beaten distance LTO: Horses beaten by more than 3 lengths LTO have provided 1 winner from 19 runners for a loss of £15.50 (ROI -81.6%).
Course LTO: Horses that did NOT race at a Grade 1 track LTO have provided just 1 winner from 28 runners for a loss of £21.00 (ROI -75%).

GENERAL STATS

Class LTO: Horses dropped in class / racing in the same class have won 5 races from 24 for a small loss of £2.00

Trends analysis: This race has been an excellent one for market leaders with 50% of the races seeing a winning favourite. Indeed in general it is a market driven race with 9 of the winners priced 6/1 or shorter. Take special note of horses that ran at Ascot last time out, while ignore any runner that did not race at a Grade 1 track LTO. It has also been an advantage to come from off the pace so in running punters take note.

4.25 Ascot – King George & Queen Elizabeth Stakes – 1m4f (Group 1) 3yo+

POSITIVE TRENDS

Favourites: 7 wins from 10 for a profit of £5.47 (ROI +54.7%).
Market: The top two in the betting have provided 9 of the last 10 winners.
Price: All of the winners have been priced 13/2 or shorter.
Price: Horses priced 5/2 or shorter have provided 7 winners from just 9 runners!
Breeding: 9 of the last 10 winners were Irish bred.
Position LTO: 8 of the last 10 winners finished in the first two LTO (6 won).
Course LTO: 5 of the last 7 winners raced at Royal Ascot LTO.
Trainers: 5 wins for Irish trainers (3 for O’Brien, 2 for Oxx); Sir Michael Stoute has had 3 successes also.

NEGATIVE TRENDS

Price: Horses priced 7/1 or bigger have produced 0 winners from 62.
Market: Horses 5th or higher in the betting market have provided 0 winners from 52.
Breeding: Just 1 win from 25 for British bred runners.

GENERAL STATS

Age: 3yos have provided 2 winners from 14 (SR 14.3%); 4yos have provided 8 winners from 41 (SR 19.5%); 5yos+ have provided 0 winners from 37 (SR 0%).

Trends analysis: This has been a market driven race with favourites having an excellent record, and the shorter the price the better. Horses priced 5/2 or shorter have a remarkable record of 7 wins from 9 qualifiers. Irish bred runners have done well as have Irish trainers, while horses that raced at Royal Ascot LTO have a good recent record. A win LTO has also been a positive. 4 year olds have dominated in recent years with not many 3 year olds prepared to take on their elders. The last 5yo to win was Daylami back in 1999.

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Dave Renham is a uk Horse Racing Researcher
For more info Click Here ==> Horse Racing Statistics
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