10 year trends Cheltenham – Sat/Sun

Paddy Power trends for 4 races

Saturday 1.20 – JCB Triumph Novices’ hurdle (Grade 2) – 2m½f

POSITIVE TRENDS

Market: 7 of the last 10 winners have come from the top 2 in the betting (4 wins for favourites).
Price: Horses priced 11/2 or shorter have won 8 of the last 10 races.
Price LTO: 8 of the last 10 winners were priced 8/1 or shorter LTO.
Position LTO: 6 of the last 10 winners won LTO.
Sires: The sire Kalanisi has had 4 runners of which 2 have won and 1 other has

placed.

Trainers: 2 wins a piece for Alan King and Paul Nicholls.

 

NEGATIVE TRENDS

Sex of horse: 15 fillies have taken part and none have won.
Price: Horses priced 11/1 or bigger have provided 0 winners from 65.
Breeding: British bred runners have provided just 1 winner from 32 runners for a loss of £26.50 (ROI -82.8%).

 

GENERAL STATS

Breeding: Irish bred runners have won 50% of the races from 34% of the total runners.

 

Trends analysis: this has been a market dominated race with the top 2 in the betting dominating. Indeed it seems that you can draw a line through around half the runners as 10/1 has been the cut-off point (all 10 winners priced 10/1 or shorter). LTO winners have a solid record and trainers Alan King and Paul Nicholls should be respected. In terms of negatives, both British bred runners and fillies look worth avoiding.

 

Saturday 2.35 – Paddy Power Gold Cup Chase (Grade 3) – 2m4½ f

POSITIVE TRENDS

Favourites: 4 of the last 10 winners have been favourite and backing all qualifiers would have produced a profit of £9.25 (ROI +92.5%).
Price: Horses priced between 12/1 and 20/1 have provided 4 winners.
Market LTO: 7 of the last 10 winners were favourite or second favourite LTO.
Price LTO: 9 of the last 10 winners were priced 13/2 or shorter LTO.
Position LTO: 5 of the last 10 winners won LTO.
Trainers: 4 wins for the Pipe stable, but none since David took over from his father.

 

NEGATIVE TRENDS

Course LTO: Horses that raced at Aintree LTO have provided just 1 winner from 31 for a loss of £25.50 (ROI -82.3%).
Handicap LTO: Horses that raced in a handicap LTO have provided 3 winners from 116 for a loss of £91.75 (ROI -79.1%).
Breeding: British bred runners have provided 0 winners from 37.

 

GENERAL STATS

Age: 5 year olds have produced 0 winners from 11 qualifiers (SR 0%); 6 year olds have produced 2 winners from 27 qualifiers (SR 7.4%); 7 year olds have produced 5 winners from 42 qualifiers (SR 11.9%); 8 year olds have provided 2 winners from 40 qualifiers (SR 5%); 9 year olds plus have provided 1 winner from 39 qualifiers (SR 2.6%).

 

Trends analysis: favourites have a good record, but also so do runners priced 12/1 to 20/1. A better market to take note of is the LTO market for each runner as 9 of the last 10 winners were priced 13/2 or shorter on their most recent start. LTO winners have a fairly good record, while runners that have poor records include horses aged 9 and older, British bred runners and horses that raced in a handicap LTO.

 

 

 

Sunday 1.10 – Independent Newspaper Novices’ Chase (Grade 2) – 2 miles

 

POSITIVE TRENDS

Favourites: There have been 5 winning favourites from 10 qualifiers showing a small profit of 81 pence.
Market: 8 of the last 10 winners came from the top two in the market.
Days since last run: 9 of the last 10 winners had raced within the last 5 weeks (35 days).
Position LTO: 6 of the last 10 winners won last time out.
Market LTO: 7 of the last 10 winners were favourites on their most recent start. Backing all such runners would have produced a profit of £8.81 (ROI +44.1%).
Price: Horses priced 100/30 or shorter LTO have provided 8 of last 10 winners.
Price LTO: Horses priced 9/4 or shorter LTO have provided 9 of the last 10 winners.
Running style: 8 of the last 10 runners have either led early or raced close to the pace.
Trainers: Paul Nicholls has had 5 winners from 12 runners.
Breeding: Only 4 German bred horses have contested the race but all 4 have won!

 

NEGATIVE TRENDS

Price: Horses priced 11/1 or bigger have produced 0 winners from 19 runners.

 

GENERAL STATS

Age: 4 year olds have produced 2 winners from 8 qualifiers (SR 25%); 5 year olds have produced 2 winners from 14 qualifiers (SR 14.3%); 6 year olds have produced 5 winners from 16 qualifiers (SR 31.3%); 7 year olds plus have provided 1 winner from 22 qualifiers (SR 4.5%).

 

Trends analysis: A good starting point is to simply focus on the top two in the betting who have provided 80% of the winners. It is also worthwhile looking at the market of their last run as horses that were priced 9/4 or shorter LTO have an excellent record. Last time out winners have performed well, while for ‘in running’ punters it has been a big advantage to race up with the pace. Trainer wise, Paul Nicholls has an excellent record in the race with 5 wins including the last 3 renewals. In terms of age 6yos have done well, while 7yos and older have not.

Sunday 2.20 – The Greatwood Handicap Hurdle Race (Grade 3) – 2m ½f

 

POSITIVE TRENDS

Market: 7 of the last 10 winners have come from the top 2 in the betting. 2nd favourites have provided of those winners for a profit of £16.00 (ROI +177.8%).
Price: Horses priced 9/1 or shorter have provided 9 of the last 10 winners.
Market position LTO: 8 of the last 10 winners were in the top 3 of the betting LTO.
Price LTO: Horses priced 9/2 or shorter last time out have provided 8 of the last 10 winners.
Age: 5 year olds have a good record with 6 wins from 47 qualifiers for a profit of £12.70 (ROI +27%).
Weight rank: The top weight or joint top weight has won the race 4 times from just 12 runners.
Trainers: 3 wins for the Phillip Hobbs stable.
Running style: 7 of the 10 winners were “held up” off the pace.

 

NEGATIVE TRENDS

Position LTO: Horses who finished 6th or worse LTO have provided 0 winners from 31.
Price: Horses priced 10/1 or bigger have provided just 1 winner from 87.
Age: 4 year olds have registered 1 win from 26 runners; 8 year olds plus have produced just 1 winner from 23 runners.
Conditional Jockeys: 0 wins from 32 for horses ridden by conditional jockeys.

 

GENERAL STATS

Favourites (inc. joints): There have been 3 winning favourites (including joints) from 11 producing a small loss of £2.09.

 

Trends analysis: This tends to be a market dominated race with 7 of the last 10 winners being from the top two of the betting, and just 1 winner from 87 for horses priced in double figures.  Top weights have won 40% of the races which is unusual for a competitive handicap, especially considering the average field size has been 13. In terms of age 5 year olds have done particularly well. For “in running” punters hold up horses have performed best.

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Dave Renham is a uk Horse Racing Researcher
For more info Click Here ==> Horse Racing Statistics
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