3.25 Punchestown
If your horse leads on landing at the final hurdle and fails to win in this race, we will refund your losing single stake.
Conditions
Racing To The Last
February 5, 2012 By Leave a Comment
Money-Back Special – Racing To The Last
January 22, 2012 By Leave a Comment
2.30 Market Rasen
Money-Back Special
If your horse leads on landing at the final hurdle jumped, but fails to win this race, we will refund your losing single stake.
Conditions
Money-Back Special – We’re Your Favourite
January 21, 2012 By Leave a Comment
2.35 Ascot (Sat.)
Holloway Hurdle
Live on Channel 4
Money-Back Special
If your horse finishes second to the SP Favourite in this race, we will refund your losing single stake.
Conditions
Betting Advice For Ascot
January 21, 2012 By Leave a Comment
Guy’s good run came unstuck last weekend.
He finally had a losing weekend after five winning weekend’s in a row for us here.
Read below his suggested betting advice for today.
———————————————————-
A s c o t 2.35
4/1 Smad Place, 5/1 A Bridge Too Far, 11/2 Ciceron
6/1 Shoreacres, 13/2 Joseph Lister, 7/1 Royal Charm
12/1 Pateese, 16/1 Orzare, 16/1 Rowan Tiger
20/1 Tara Rose.
* This is a Graded Handicap Hurdle just short of 2m 4f
* Statistically there are only 5 renewals to consider
* 5 year olds have yet to win this race.
* SMAD PLACE wouldnt interest me because of that
* Especially not first time out when not 100% fit
* JOSEPH LISTER is also rejected as a 5yo
* He looks short of runs with just 3 hurdle races
* You would have thought lightly raced hurdlers are best
* Thats not the case in this race
* Winners had 16 12 32 20 17 previous hurdle runs
* That shows this goes to experienced hurdlers
* ROWAN TIGER is out with 4 runs from a Novice Hurdle
* A BRIDGE TOO FAR has only had 6 hurdle starts
* Without Graded backclass I dont see a strong case
* TARA ROSE – Rejected as a mare with just 4 runs
* ORZARE wouldnt interest me first time out
* ROYAL CHARM doesnt offer me enough
* Not keen that he comes from a Chase
* Not sure he is fit enough
* Not convinced he is weighted to win anyway
* CICERON – I thought he had a fair chance
* CICERON is potentially a saver
* PATEESE – Comes here after well beaten last time
* He had excuses and should strip fitter
* Not long ago he was favourite for the Greatwood Hurdle
* I think he is worth a saver
S e l e c t i o n
SHOREACRES
I like the chance of SHOREACRES. He has had 2 Hurdle
starts since switching from Chasing. He never really took
to fences but did manage a win from 8 Chase starts. Look
back before he went Chasing. This horse managed a 4th
in the Champion Bumper and a decent 7th in a Supreme
Novice Hurdle at Cheltenham. That shows he has plenty
of class. He then went Chasing with limited success but a
couple of hurdle runs recently shows me he can win this.
He does have fewer hurdle runs than all past winners did
but he is plenty experienced because of his chasing races.
I think his last two runs show him in top form and with
a strong form chance. He likes right handed tracks and
is very fit and it’s hard to see him being far away here.
Selection
SHOREACRES Some 7/1 and 13/2 was available earlier when full members got this.
11/2 now top bookmaker price at Ladbrokes, Bet365 and VC
Each way I would suggest
Or alternately if you like bet it on the nose with a saver bet on
PATEESE at 10/1 Bet365 Betfred Sky Ladbrokes BoyleSports
For more info on my private service see here ==> Betting Advice
.
Racing To The Last
January 17, 2012 By Leave a Comment
3.10 Ayr
If your horse leads on landing at the final hurdle jumped in this race, but fails to win, we will refund your losing single stake.
Conditions
10 year trends Sandown Sat 7th Jan 2012
January 7, 2012 By Leave a Comment
1.35 Sandown – 32Red Poker Juvenile Hurdle – class 4 (2m ½f)
POSITIVE TRENDS
| Favourites: There has been 5 winning favourites from 10 and backing all selections would have produced a profit of 86 pence (ROI +8.6%). |
| Price: 8 of the last 10 winners were priced 8/1 or shorter. (N.B. the other two winners were at 50/1 and 66/1). |
| Days since last run: Horses that had last raced between 8 and 14 days previously have provided 4 of the last 10 winners from just 11 runners. |
| Position LTO: 7 of the last 10 winners finished in the first three LTO. |
| Market LTO: 7 of the last 10 winners were favourite or second favourite LTO. |
| Running style: 7 of the last 10 winners raced close to or up with the pace (3 made all). |
NEGATIVE TRENDS
| Sex of horse: 0 wins from 13 for female runners. |
| Price LTO: Horses priced 25/1 or bigger LTO have provided 0 winners from 26. |
| Distance beaten LTO: Horses beaten 20 lengths or more LTO have provided just 1 winner from 39 qualifiers. |
GENERAL STATS
| Trainers: No trainer has saddled the winner more than once. |
Trends analysis: Favourites have a good record and despite two big priced winners the market tends to get it right. Past market data has proved useful also with 7 winners having been favourite or second favourite LTO. Good recent form is a plus with 70% of the winners having finished in the first three LTO. In terms of negatives, horses well beaten LTO have a poor record, as do female runners.
2.05 Sandown – 32Red Handicap Chase – Class 2 (2m)
POSITIVE TRENDS
| Market: 6 of the last 10 winners were second or third favourites. |
| Price: 8 of the last 10 winners were priced 11/2 or shorter. |
| Weight rank: 7 of the last 10 winners were 3rd to 5yh in the weights. |
| Position LTO: 4 of the last 10 winners have finished 6th or worse LTO. |
| LTO favourites: Horses that were favourite LTO have provided 5 winners from 15 for a profit of £4.25 (ROI +28.3%). |
| Distance beaten LTO: Horses beaten 20 lengths or more LTO have provided 5 winners from 22 runners for a profit of £17.25 (ROI +78.4%). |
NEGATIVE TRENDS
| Market: Favourites have provided 2 winners from 10 for a loss of £3.50 (ROI -35%). |
| Market: Horses 4th in the betting or bigger have provided just 2 winners from 42. |
| Headgear: 0 wins from 11 for horses wearing headgear. |
| Breeding: French bred runners have provided just 1 winner from 19 qualifiers for a loss of £15.75 (ROI -82.9%). |
GENERAL STATS
| Age: 5 & 6 year olds have produced 1 winner from 2 qualifiers (SR 50%); 7 year olds have produced 0 winners from 11 qualifiers (0%); 8 year olds have produced 5 winners from 22 qualifiers (SR 22.7%); 9 year olds have produced 3 winners from 22 (SR 13.6%); 10 year olds have produced 1 winner from 17 (SR 5.9%). |
Trends analysis: this race has favoured second and third favourites, while the actual market leaders have provided poor value. LTO form has not been that important with 5 of the winners having been beaten by 20 lengths or more on their most recent outing. 7 of the last 10 winners were ranked 3rd to 5th in the weights, while in terms of age, 8 year olds have done best, with horses 10 or older having struggled.
*****************************************
Dave Renham is a uk Horse Racing Researcher
For more info Click Here ==> Horse Racing Statistics
*****************************************
Sat 31st Dec – 10 year trends 3.05 Newbury
December 30, 2011 By Leave a Comment
3.05 Newbury – Grade 1 Challow Novices’ Hurdle – 2m5f
POSITIVE TRENDS
| Favourites (inc. joints): There have been 5 winning favourites from 11 qualifiers showing a profit of £1.58 (ROI +14.4%). |
| Market: 8 of the last 10 winners have been from the top two in the betting. |
| Price: All of the last 10 winners were priced 7/1 or shorter. |
| Market LTO: 9 of the last 10 winners were favourite LTO. |
| Position LTO: 7 of the last 10 winners won LTO. |
| Course LTO: 5 of the last 10 winners raced at Cheltenham LTO (from only 17 qualifiers). |
| Trainers: Jonjo O’Neill has saddled 3 winners; 2 wins a piece for Paul Nicholls and Nick Williams. |
| Jockeys: 4 wins from 6 rides for Tony Mc Coy. |
NEGATIVE TRENDS
| Market: Horses 5th or lower in the betting market have provided 0 winners from 36. |
GENERAL STATS
| Age: 4 year olds have produced 2 winners from 20 qualifiers (SR 10%); 5 year olds have produced 6 winners from 31 qualifiers (SR 19.4%); 7 year olds plus have won 2 from 26 qualifiers (7.7%). |
Trends analysis: A race where positive trends are by far the strongest. Favourites have a decent record, and the market has been a good guide with all 10 winners being priced 7/1 or shorter. LTO market position has been an excellent indicator with 9 of the last 10 winners being favourite on their most recent start. To put that in perspective LTO favourites have provided 905 of the winners from only 43% of the total runners. Jonjo O’Neill has a good record in the race, as does champion jockey Ttony Mc Coy. In terms of age, 5 year olds seem to hold the edge.
*****************************************
Dave Renham is a uk Horse Racing Researcher
For more info Click Here ==> Horse Racing Statistics
*****************************************
Racing To The Last
December 26, 2011 By Leave a Comment
1.25 Kempton
If your horse leads on landing at the final hurdle and fails to win in this race, we will refund your losing single stake.
Conditions
Trends For Cheltenham
December 10, 2011 By Leave a Comment
3.05 Cheltenham – International Hurdle – 2 miles 1f (Grade 2)
POSITIVE TRENDS
| Favourites (inc. joints): There have been 7 winning favourites (including joints) from 11 for a profit of £4.69 (ROI +42.6%). |
| Position LTO: Horses that won LTO have provided 6 of the last 10 winners. |
| Position LTO: All of the last 10 winners finished in the first three LTO. |
| Recent wins: All of the last 10 winners had won at least once in their last four starts (this stretches back to the last 17 renewals). |
| LTO course: Horses that raced at Cheltenham last time out have a good record producing 6 winners from 20 for a profit of £33.79 (+169%). Indeed focusing on the runners that raced in the Greatwood Hurlde LTO this improves to 5 wins from 11 for a profit of £40.42 (ROI +367.4%). |
NEGATIVE TRENDS
| Beaten distance LTO: Horses that were beaten by 5 or more lengths LTO have provided 0 winners from 23. |
| Position LTO: Horses that finished 4th or worse last time out have produced 0 winners from 16 qualifiers. |
GENERAL STATS
| Age: 4 years olds have won 2 races from 15 qualifiers (SR 13.3%),5 year olds have won 4 races from 15 qualifiers (SR 26.7%); 6 year olds have won 1 race from 9 qualifiers (SR 11.1%); 7 year olds have won 2 races from 14 qualifiers (SR 14.3%); 8 year olds and older have won 1 race from 16 qualifiers (SR 6.3%). |
Trends analysis: the best starting point looks to be horses that finished in the first three LTO as they have provided all of the last 10 winners. From there, look for horses that have won at least once in their last four starts. Horses that ran at Cheltenham last time out have a good record, especially those that ran in the Greatwood hurdle LTO.. Favourites also have a very good record. From a negative perspective, horses beaten by 5 or more lengths LTO look worth avoiding. In terms of age, 5 year olds have done well.
Provided by www.RacingTrends.co.uk
Racing To The Last
December 5, 2011 By Leave a Comment
1.40 Plumpton
If your horse leads on landing at the final hurdle and fails to win in this race, we will refund your losing single stake.
Conditions