Cheltenham Ten Year Trends
One of the many componants that makes up Dave Renham’s excellent RacingTrends service are his Big Race Trends reports.
Typically these cover several of the major races each Saturday but he also provides them for major meetings and festivals.
These are in addition to his normal daily high detail racing stats reports.
In short these big race trends reports examine individual races in detail in order to try and identify any key elements of form that will gives us clues as to value or likely winners in today’s races.
Today Dave has looked at several races at Cheltenham from a ten year trends approach.
1.55 Cheltenham – Albert Bartlett Novices Hurdle (registered as the Bristol Hurdle) – 3m (Grade 2)
POSITIVE TRENDS
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Favourites (inc. joints): There have been 8 winning favourites (including joints) from 13 for a profit of £7.71 (ROI +59.3%).
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Position LTO: 9 of the last 10 winners finished 1st or 2nd LTO.
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Price: 9 of the last 10 winners have been priced 4/1 or shorter.
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Days off track: 7 of the last 10 winners had been off the track for between 20 and 27 days.
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Price LTO: 8 of the last 10 winners were priced 4/1 or shorter LTO (all 10 winners were 15/2 or shorter LTO).
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LTO Favourites: Horses that started favourite LTO have provided 6 winners from 26 runners for a profit of £6.63 (ROI +25.5%).
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LTO course: Horses that raced at Cheltenham last time out have a good record with 5 of the 15 qualifiers going onto win this race.
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Trainers: 2 wins from 4 for Alan King.
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Jockets: 3 wins from 5 for Tony Mc Coy.
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NEGATIVE TRENDS
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Race type LTO: Horses that raced in a handicap LTO have a poor record with 0 wins from 14.
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GENERAL STATS
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Age: 4 years olds have won 2 races from 7 qualifiers (SR 28.6%),5 year olds have won 3 races from 33 qualifiers (SR 9.1%); 6 year olds have won 4 races from 19 qualifiers (SR 21.1%); 7 year olds and older have won 1 race from 14 qualifiers (SR 7.1%).
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Trends analysis: A race where the positive trends are key. Favourites have an excellent record and hence it is not surprising to see horses that finished 1st or 2nd LTO doing well also. Horses that ran at Cheltenham LTO should be respected and also look for horses that were fancied LTO – LTO favourites have done especially well. In terms of fitness, horses off the track for between 20 and 27 days have done especially well.
3.05 Cheltenham – Stan James.com International Hurdle – 2 miles 1f (Grade 2)
POSITIVE TRENDS
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Favourites (inc. joints): There have been 7 winning favourites (including joints) from 12 for a profit of £5.69 (ROI +47.4%).
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Position LTO: All of the last 10 winners finished in the first three LTO. 7 won LTO.
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Recent wins: All of the last 10 winners had won at least once in their last four starts.
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LTO course: Horses that raced at Cheltenham last time out have a good record producing 6 winners from 20 for a profit of £33.80 (+169%).
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LTO race type: Horses that ran in a handicap LTO have provided 6 winners from 24 for a profit of £23.80 (ROI +99.2%).
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Days since last run: All of the last 10 winners have run within the past 28 days.
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Trainers: 3 wins from 7 for Philip Hobbs; 2 wins from 7 for Nicky Henderson.
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NEGATIVE TRENDS
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Breeding: Irish bred horses have managed just 2 wins from 30 for a loss of £23.75 (ROI -79.2%).
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Beaten distance LTO: Horses that were beaten by more than 10 lengths LTO have provided 0 winners from 17.
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Position LTO: Horses that finished 4th or worse last time out have produced 0 winners from 21 qualifiers.
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GENERAL STATS
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Age: 4 years olds have won 3 races from 17 qualifiers (SR 17.7%),5 year olds have won 3 races from 18 qualifiers (SR 16.7 %); 6 year olds have won 1 race from 9 qualifiers (SR 11.1%); 7 year olds have won 2 races from 13 qualifiers (SR 15.4%); 8 year olds and older have won 1 race from 16 qualifiers (SR 6.3%).
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Trends analysis: once again there are plenty of positive stats. A run in the past 4 weeks has been crucial as has a position LTO in the top three (with a strong preference for LTO winners. Horses that ran at Cheltenham last time out have a very good record and this is a clear plus, while a run in a handicap LTO has also been a positive. From a negative perspective, horses beaten by 10 or more lengths LTO look worth avoiding, while Irish bred runners have generally struggled.
3.40 Cheltenham – Relkeel hurdle – 2 miles 4f 110yds (Grade 2)
POSITIVE TRENDS
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Market: 9 of the last 10 winners came from the top three in the betting.
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Price: All of the last 10 winners were priced 9/1 or shorter.
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Position LTO: Horses that finished first or second LTO have provided 6 of the last 10 winners for a break even situation.
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Course LTO: All of last 10 winners raced at a Grade 1 track LTO.
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Breeding: 6 of the last 10 winners were French bred.
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Running style: 9 of the last 10 winners raced up with or close to the pace.
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Previous Cheltenham run: 9 of the last 10 winners had all had experience of Cheltenham.
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Trainers: 3 wins from 6 for Alan King.
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NEGATIVE TRENDS
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Upped in class: Horses that were upped in class from their most recent run have a moderate record with 3 wins from 29.
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GENERAL STATS
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Favourites (inc. joints): There have been 4 winning favourites (including joints) from 11 for a loss of £3.00.
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Age: 4 year olds have won 4 races from 19 qualifiers (SR 21.1%); 5 year olds have won 2 races from 17 qualifiers (SR 11.8%); 6 year olds have won 2 races from 17 qualifiers (SR 11.8%); 7 year olds have won 2 races from 11 qualifiers (SR 18.2%).
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Trends analysis: The market has been a good guide in this race with the top three in the betting producing 90% of the winners. French breds have done well while a run at a Grade 1 track LTO has been of paramount importance. Trainer Alan King has done very well with 3 wins, while for in running punters hold up horses have performed poorly. In terms of age 4yos may have a slight edge but it is a little unclear.