Lays Spreadsheet Staking Plans
Lays Spreadsheet Staking Plans
I have put together a spreadsheet to help try and determine optimum usage of the lay selections Dave puts out here at Racing Trends.
When looking at staking or strategy determination etc it is best to use as much historic data as possible.
This spreadsheet covers all flat and turf selections provided by the method going back to when
BSP was first introduced on Betfair in 2008.
The spreadsheet examines both laying the horses to win and to place.
It also permits the setting of odds ranges on both win and place.
Results are examined using several different staking approaches.
#1 Probably the most common way lay results are listed is to assume you take £100
from the Betfair punter each bet. This I term Fixed Stake laying.
Lay a 10/1 winner for example and you lose £10 * £100 = £1000
You win £100 minus Betfair commission each time you are correct.
It’s a common method of staking lays but I would suggest if doing it that way you need be careful about which horses you lay.
Duck the huge odds ones by setting a maximum odds limit you are comfortable with.
#2 The second classic approach to laying I term.. Fixed Liability.
With this approach you alter the stake you take on Betfair to give yourself an constant risk per horse.
It then matters not if the horse is even money or ten to one.
The most you can lose on that horse is what ever liability you have set per horse.
What varies here is how much you win on a successful lay.
It is sort of similar to how a traditional bookmaker will let you stake more on a short price selection than a long odds one.
Key concern to them is not the stake ..but the payout or liability.
#3 Rolling Bank Liability.
Here we seek to compound gains by setting liability not to a fixed amount to but to a fixed percentage of your bank.
As your bank grows so does the amount you are prepared to risk on each selection.
The spreadsheet is well worth a play with in order to find a lay usage strategy that suits your good self.
Charts and graphs indicate how the settings you use alter performance over time.
If I were a Sun headline writer I’d be screaming about how laying the selections to place turned an
initial £1000 into £2 million quid since 2008.
That’s laying to risk 5% of a rolling bank.
You can actually up that figure by being more aggressive with your percentage bank setting.
Be aware however that’s a theoretical spreadsheet land figure.
In real life you are obviously going to struggle to get 5% or more of a Million plus bank laid at acceptable odds.
That said if it got to only 10% or even 5% of that figure over the next year or two would you be unhappy?
Such atronomical spreadsheet figures..best judged with a pinch of salt.
Perhaps best viewed simply as.. a small bank can grow to something significantly bigger over
time if you have an edge and compound gains.
Anyhow .. here is the link to the spreadsheet
http://www.racingtrends.co.uk/download/RT-Lays.xls
I also have a webpage copy at http://www.racingtrends.co.uk/RT-Lays.htm
But the actual spreadsheet is better assuming you can use it as the web copy is just a snapshot.
The actual spreadsheet permits you to play with staking plan and odds range settings etc.
Best wishes
Mick
Admin
www.RacingTrends.co.uk
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Dave Renham is a uk Horse Racing Researcher
For more info Click Here ==> Horse Racing Statistics
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