Our usual free racing tip from Guy over at mathematician betting.
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The Game plan was simple. Strong each way bet around 4/1
but there have been two viscious non runners. Both horses
were unfit and had horrible profiles and were fancied which
made the market for SET TO MUSIC. Now we are looking
at a win bet around 2/1. Still going with her as she faces just unfit
and inferior horses. Comes from a brilliant trial race I have to
put her up and I think she should be too strong.
* The Aphrodite Stakes is for fillies over 12f
* Never an easy race I did think this years was interesting
* I looked at past renewals for horses with 1 run this year
* The last to do that was back in 2003
* There were 2 winners overall with 1 run this year in 18 renewals
* These 2 horses were very lightly raced with 4-5 career starts
* I would be wary betting once raced horses with many more runs
* DORCAS LANE has 1 run this year and 9 career starts
* I oppose her as I want more runs this year after 9 races
* AMBIVALENT has 1 run this year but is lightly raced
* My objection to her is much simpler its class
* She has limited backclass and rarely do handicappers win this
* HAZEL LAVERY – Doesnt offer much. Doubtfull Stayer.
* BOLIVIA – The 1 winner from handicaps came from Class 2
* She doesnt appeal to me from a Class 4 handicap.
S e l e c t i o n
* SET TO MUSIC comes from the Lancashire Oaks
* Thats a brilliant trial race for this
* The 1998 1999 2001 2003 2009 winners came from there
* She is well raced this year with 4 runs
* Recent winners had 2 3 4 3 2 3 runs this year
* She has that but look at her 4 market rivals
* The Favourite has only 1 run this year
* The 3rd favourite has only 1 run this year
* The 4th favourite is absent 630 days
* The 5th favourite has only 1 run this year
* SET TO MUSIC stands out to me
SET TO MUSIC 2/1 at PaddyPower
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